Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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February 22nd, 2015 at 2:34:18 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Khozan = 1 to 20.


Easy money. Looked like an aggressive workout for him. Where does he go next? Pletcher (or the owners) probably do not want to put Istaknockout vs Khozan in the Florida Derby. Maybe they will play it safe/sensible and put him in a easier spot like the 1 1/16 mile Rebel in 3 weeks. We shall see....
*Edit to add: Just saw DD's Pletcher quote. He has so many they just have to run against each other.
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Result:
Aqueduct race #1 - Net Gain won by a neck over Uninfluenced.
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Monday 2/23:
Parx race #6 (MSW 1mile 70yards)
7 - Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 200/1)
- The morning line looks a tad off on this one. Anything above even money on this Pletcher runner would be surprising. 2nd to Itsaknockout and J S Bach in his last two races.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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February 22nd, 2015 at 2:37:34 PM permalink
One minute to post in the Southwest, and I thought Bold Conquest was worth a small sporting wager across the board while taking only 12% of the money on the nose and < 10% in the place/show pools, as one of only 2 true routers in the field, but concerned about his possible lack of tactical speed on this track.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 22nd, 2015 at 3:18:36 PM permalink
RE: More jibber-jabber on slow Fountain of Youth time, speculation (guesswork)

I recall that the forcast on Saturday for the Gulfstream Park area called for dry but windy/breezy conditions. Checking the National Weather Service record I see that near post time they did indeed have 18 mph wind gusting to 26. Besides any direct effect of running in the wind, and affecting their run differently at different points depending on direction in the two-turn race, moisture content is a major factor for the condition of the surface and how well they can get a hold of it in their complex running action. Normally the grounds crew will run equipment around it to work the surface evenly across it and apply water to the dirt track to maintain the surface between races, but with hours between the final two main track races while they were running a series of turf stakes and with the wind over it, I'll speculate that it may have dried out for that race.

An alternate theory/guess would be that these simply were not among the more talented members of their crop. I'm not subscribing to that at this point, but it is a theory that could potentially fit the facts that are known to date.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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February 22nd, 2015 at 4:40:17 PM permalink
The soggy Southwest Stakes is being given a Beyer speed figure of 91.



And Mr. Z continues his distinguished career as a professional 2nd & 3rd place finisher, collecting over $500k in purse money, all of it in graded stakes, without winning a single race since breaking his maiden first time out back in June of 2014. I assume that lone first in the maiden race was some kind of an accident, that he didn't yet know where the wire was or something.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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February 22nd, 2015 at 5:27:33 PM permalink
Oaklawn Park #9 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (1 1/16mile - 300k)
6 - Far Right (Wynn 70/1,W Hill 50/1,Westgate 60/1) - Wins again @ Oaklawn.
-Due to the slop I will just say I like the top 4 finishers moving forward.

Quote: DrawingDead

The soggy Southwest Stakes is being given a Beyer speed figure of 91.
And Mr. Z continues his distinguished career as a professional 2nd & 3rd place finisher, collecting over $500k in purse money, all of it in graded stakes, without winning a single race since breaking his maiden first time out back in June of 2014. I assume that lone first in the maiden race was some kind of an accident, that he didn't yet know where the wire was or something.


Half-a-mil sure does buy a lot of hay and oats. He does seem to slow down when he gets the lead down the stretch. This quirky, well seasoned (or maybe over-raced), and speedy colt is starting to grow on me for some reason. He really has not run a terrible race and has tremendous pace ability.

What other 3yo has shown the ability to flash speed and carry-on towards the end? Maybe El Kabeir?
I am just not really seeing the speedy colts so far this year. American Pharoah, Lord Nelson, Khozan, J S Bach may be able change that opinion in future races. I am not really looking for a front runner to win the Derby, but noticing very few contenders with pace making speed.
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Slow week ahead for 3yo races, but the 3rd Derby pool and only Oaks pool will open next weekend. The John Battaglia Memorial (non points earning) will be run @ Turfway on Sat 28th. The Great War is entered for the race.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 23rd, 2015 at 12:15:24 AM permalink
I wonder if anyone has ever become a million dollar stakes earner without winning at least one of them? If anyone could manage to do that it seems Mr. Z should be the one to find a way.

I've brought Far From Over into my stable of future book "win the Derby" wagers. Not that I imagine anyone but my creditors should care about my wagers, but since I put up this thread I think I should continue to disclose my Derby future tickets so people have a fair opportunity to ridicule them mercilessly in about two months and change. Seems that should be the natural price for making an early Derby discussion or future wager thread.

The list of my straight win wagers, for varying amounts & some on multiple tickets booked at different times, is now:

  • Bolo
  • Carpe Diem
  • Far From Over
  • Frosted
  • Imperia
  • Itsaknockout
  • Khozan
  • Lord Nelson

All are locked in at prices of at least 25/1 or greater, ranging up to 100/1. Of these I think Frosted and Imperia are the two that are now probably worth less than I paid for them, and I remain more than satisfied with the value of the tickets I have on the other six. I already have a couple more betting interests involved in futures than what I usually end up with for this in most years. I'm okay with that so long as the value proposition on each individual ticket makes sense to me.

I also have Texas Red and The Great War tied up with these in various combinations, some also involving the "field" and some not, from the Churchill parimutual Pool #2, where I found some exactas offering some enhanced value compared to the implied probabilities from straight win odds. I'm willing to trade Texas Red for some Palms car wash tokens.

Pool #3 this coming weekend may be interesting. There's not a lot of sources of potential volatility in the wagering market that I'm seeing on the schedule during the three day window the pool will be open. I'm willing to take a stand (again) against some nice talented and accomplished colts that I think will be taking significant action, but which I do not believe are potentially mile and a quarter colts. I'm particularly looking to play against some likely favorites in the Pool #3 exactas, where some heavily backed combinations seem to take disproportionate money when tied up with each other and the field.

I have nothing doing at all for potentially playing in the Oaks pool.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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February 23rd, 2015 at 8:37:10 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-

  • Frosted
  • Imperia
    All are locked in at prices of at least 25/1 or greater, ranging up to 100/1. Of these I think Frosted and Imperia are the two that are now probably worth less than I paid for them, and I remain more than satisfied with the value of the tickets I have on the other six. I already have a couple more betting interests involved in futures than what I usually end up with for this in most years. I'm okay with that so long as the value proposition on each individual ticket makes sense to me.
    -edited-


  • Interesting that both Godolphin colts under-performed recently. Both still can make the gate, as there are numerous other preps left. Maybe the hunch play is to bet Maftool or even Mubtaahij? One or both could certainly run in May for the royal family of Dubai.
    ----------

    Monday 2/23 result:
    Parx race #6 (MSW 1mile 70yards)
    Mr. Discreet won and Old Mountain Lane (Wynn 200/1) ran 3rd while burning up some cash (not mine - the odds were to low) as the heavy favorite.
    ----------

    Pool 3 projections:
    Additions:
    Far From Over
    War Story
    Subtractions:
    J S Bach
    Gorgeous Bird

    -Observation: 3 of the top 5 betting choices from Pool 2 have questions to answer when they return to the track.
    Texas Red - healing foot, might return in Santa Anita Derby.
    American Pharoah - yet to race since setback, maybe the Rebel.
    Carpe Diem - yet to race as a 3yo, probably the Tampa Bay Derby.
    ----------

    Quote: DrawingDead

    I have nothing doing at all for potentially playing in the Oaks pool.


    Easy no-brainer for me at the moment: Take Charge Brandi. I do wonder if it may be better to wait and bet the Oaks/Derby double with her....
    Keeneone
    Keeneone
    Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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    February 23rd, 2015 at 10:14:43 PM permalink
    I have mentioned her a number of times, but here is the video (in case anyone actually watches these things) of why I like Take Charge Brandi in the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks:

    2014 Breeders' Cup 14 Juvenile Fillies (females) (Nov 1, 2014 - race 4 @ Santa Anita) (Final time: 1:41.95)



    Santa Anita - Breeders' Cup Juvenile (males) (Nov 1, 2014 - race 8 @ Santa Anita) (Final time: 1:41.91)



    - Look at the final times of these races (same track, same day, a few hours apart). TCB has won 3 stakes since the Breeders' Cup. Texas Red finished 2nd in one sprint stakes since (and is now recovering from a foot problem). Texas Red has been talked about as the favorite for the Derby, why shouldn't TCB be given consideration against the boys?
    Keeneone
    Keeneone
    Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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    February 24th, 2015 at 1:14:31 PM permalink
    Kentucky Derby Future Pool #3 is out. Link to the live odds (will be available on Friday):
    http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-3-final-odds

    Pool #3 lineup w/morning line listed. ( * = new runner )

    1. American Pharoah 8-1
    2. Bolo 50-1 *
    3. CarpeDiem 12-1
    4. Danzig Moon 50-1 *
    5. Daredevil 30-1
    6. Dortmund 8-1
    7. El Kabeir 30-1
    8. Far From Over 15-1 *
    9. Far Right 20-1
    10. Firing Line 20-1
    11. International Star 20-1
    12. Itsaknockout 20-1
    13. Keen Ice 50-1 *
    14. Khozan 15-1
    15. Lord Nelson 30-1
    16. Mr. Z 50-1
    17. Ocean Knight 15-1
    18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1
    19. Prospect Park 30-1
    20. Texas Red 12-1
    21. The Great War 30-1
    22. Upstart 15-1
    23. War Story 30-1 *
    24. Mutuel Field – All Other 3-1
    Tomspur
    Tomspur
    Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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    February 24th, 2015 at 5:09:22 PM permalink
    I'm interested in seeing Ocho Ocho Ocho run again as his damsire is a south african stallion who passed away last week of heart failure at the age of 19 (Horse Chestnut). It seems as if he will be a much better broodmare sire than actual sire even though he had a G1 and several G2 performers. Never got the support in the USA.

    Any idea where he may start next?
    “There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill

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