Correlated Parlay Sunday
Dallas @ Washington (1pm) - if Dallas wins, the game between Chicago @ Philadelphia (8:30pm) will be a meaningless game for the Eagles. The NFC East division will be decided on the final week of the season when Philadelphia travels to Dallas.
Dallas and Chicago money line parlay would be considered a correlated parlay. Indeed, the Eagles will not give their best effort vs Bears on Sunday night after a Dallas win earlier in the day.
$100 parlay on Dallas -144 and Chicago +139 would net +$304.97 profit
Sure, sometimes you see teams "mail it in", but sometimes you also see teams "play spoiler". Is there any indication that these things happen more or less often than would be expected if the game was meaningful to both teams?
Quote: thecesspitIf your theory is that if the Cowboys win, the Eagles game is meaningless, isn't is also meaningless if the Cowpokes lose... so the Iggles have no incentive at all. Thus, bet on Chicago straight up.
Sport betting is not about who will win, but which bet is worth betting in terms of pricing. If both game results are positively correlated, the usual product price of a parlay underestimates the fair price.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIs there any data that suggests that teams with nothing to play for play worse than teams with something to play for?
I don't have any data to back this up, but I seem to recall reading that "having nothing to play for" is not statistically significant. The only times a team will not play hard is when they clinched a specific spot in the playoffs, so will rest their QB.
Quote: thecesspitIf your theory is that if the Cowboys win, the Eagles game is meaningless, isn't is also meaningless if the Cowpokes lose... so the Iggles have no incentive at all.
Not quite. If the Cowboys lose, you could say the Eagles have that much more of an incentive to win... since a win would then give them the division crown. They wouldn't have to worry about what happens when they go to Dallas in Week 17.
Note that Philly is already one game up on Dallas. So a Dallas loss in the morning and a Philly win Sunday night and the Eagles are then two games up... and the NFC East winner.
Quote: WizardWhat would happen if both Dallas and Philly lose this week and then Philly beats Dallas in week 17? Both would have a 8-9 record? Who would represent the NFC East in the playoffs? I'm assuming that Dallas would win, based on whatever the tie-breaking rules are.
I think you meant to say... "and then Dallas beats Philly in Week 17."
If Dallas and Philly both lose this week, Philly is still one game up. And it's Dallas who already beat Philly earlier in the year, so the Cowboys hold the tie-breaker (head to head) if both of these two teams end up tied at the end of the year.
Quote: WizardI don't have any data to back this up, but I seem to recall reading that "having nothing to play for" is not statistically significant. The only times a team will not play hard is when they clinched a specific spot in the playoffs, so will rest their QB.
That makes sense. I don't have any data either but it sounds right.
On a somewhat related topic, it reminds me of what had to be the most entertaining pair of games in NFL history. This was a while back, when Favre was young and the Packers QB. GB needed to not only win the game to make the playoffs, but also beat another team (I don't remember which one) in the score differential tiebreaker. And, the games were at the same time. The TV broadcast kept showing highlights of one game, and every time that team scored, the Packers would drive down the field, 2-minute-drill style, despite the fact that they were ahead in a blowout. And then the other team (in the other game) would do the same thing.
Does anyone else remember this? Or have I just totally lost it?
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario
It appears if the Lions lose to the Giants this week, then the Bears / Eagles game Sunday night is meaningless to the Bears! A loss to the Eagles won't hurt them and a win against won't help them! Either way, they STILL need a win in Week 17, against the Packers. That's the key game for them. But that's only if Detroit loses. If Detroit wins, they still have an outside chance at getting in, but last night's loss really hurt them.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDoes anyone else remember this? Or have I just totally lost it?
I don't remember that specifically, but I don't doubt it at all. Over the past 30+ years there have been MANY years where a team's final standings came down to that "point differential" tie-breaker. I could break out my old copies of my National Football League Record and Fact Books, and look for a few cases, if anyone is interested. (I used to buy those books every year.)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat makes sense. I don't have any data either but it sounds right.
On a somewhat related topic, it reminds me of what had to be the most entertaining pair of games in NFL history. This was a while back, when Favre was young and the Packers QB. GB needed to not only win the game to make the playoffs, but also beat another team (I don't remember which one) in the score differential tiebreaker. And, the games were at the same time. The TV broadcast kept showing highlights of one game, and every time that team scored, the Packers would drive down the field, 2-minute-drill style, despite the fact that they were ahead in a blowout. And then the other team (in the other game) would do the same thing.
Does anyone else remember this? Or have I just totally lost it?
This may or may not be what you're remembering. This is from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_up_the_score)
But this only mentions the Packers needing to run up the score, not another team (the Panthers) who were playing at the same time.
The one exception to this general rule is in regards to the NFL's tiebreaking rules that are used to determine which teams qualify for the playoffs if they are tied in the standings. One criterion to break ties is comparing the total number of points scored by each team during the regular season. Under this scenario, running up the score in a late season game is not considered poor sportsmanship because there is a benefit to having the score higher. This scenario occurred during the 1999 season when the Green Bay Packers could possibly have made the playoffs if the Dallas Cowboys had lost and they had scored enough points against the Arizona Cardinals in their final regular season game to surpass the Carolina Panthers in total points scored. They ended up beating the Cardinals 49-24 (not a huge margin of victory by football standards), but Dallas went on to beat the Giants later that day to earn the final playoff spot and knock the Packers out of the playoff picture anyway.
