steeldco
steeldco
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March 21st, 2014 at 6:02:50 AM permalink
SOOPOO, so you are in Buffalo? I did a little bit of work for Pratt & Lambert back in the day........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
kewlj
kewlj
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March 21st, 2014 at 8:20:21 AM permalink
Did anyone happen to catch the last game of the night, San Diego State vs New Mexico State? New Mexico State had a guy that was just a monster. 7'5", 375lbs. He literally looked like a Giant out there even playing against kids that were 6'10". He would have towered over Shaq. If I was SDS, I would have run him up and down the court, even though that is not their style. As it was, he got winded pretty easy and had get a lot of rest. Funny thing was they showed his 'little' brother on the bench who is a red shirt freshman. Little brother is 7'3", and 335 pounds. lol
teddys
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March 21st, 2014 at 9:40:41 AM permalink
Dumb question: I'm about to make my first March Madness bet. If UL-Lafayette is being given 14 points against Creighton, what is the fair moneyline and what are the respective probabilities to win? 538.com has Creighton 88% ULL 12%. Just wondering if it is a good bet. (ULL with the points).
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:03:55 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

SOOPOO, so you are in Buffalo? I did a little bit of work for Pratt & Lambert back in the day........



Yep. Live in the suburbs, work in the city.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:22:02 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Dumb question: I'm about to make my first March Madness bet. If UL-Lafayette is being given 14 points against Creighton, what is the fair moneyline and what are the respective probabilities to win? 538.com has Creighton 88% ULL 12%. Just wondering if it is a good bet. (ULL with the points).



teddys,

Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
michael99000
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:42:10 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

teddys,

Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.



I agree with that assessment. I could see this being a close game heading into the last 5 minutes. ULL very solid team
teddys
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:52:20 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

teddys,

Not a dumb question. Go, Bluejays! I would still take the points and ULL; I think it's going to be close but a Creighton win. They have a way of getting the first-game jitters. JMHO as an alumnus.

Okay. I made a large bet stating this. Thanks for the intel beachbumbabs. This is money I really can't afford to lose! (j/k no pressure :))
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
steeldco
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March 21st, 2014 at 11:29:24 AM permalink
Duke loses? Oh, the humanity..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
michael99000
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March 21st, 2014 at 11:54:01 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Duke loses? Oh, the humanity..........



Warren Buffet resting a little easier today...
steeldco
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March 21st, 2014 at 12:21:01 PM permalink
According to Yahoo, the top 50 in the billion dollar tournament all have perfect scores so far. I can't tell how many more beyond the top 50 may also have perfect scores.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:15:38 PM permalink
If you look at some of the actual brackets of the people, you can see they have got some stuff wrong.

the top 50 right now all have 18 out of 19.

So, no one is perfect. Buffet's billion dollars is safe.

/edit

I take it back, I see someone is 19 out of 19. The leaderboard page just isn't up to date/completely accurate.
michael99000
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:41:27 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64



I take it back, I see someone is 19 out of 19. The leaderboard page just isn't up to date/completely accurate.



I wonder what a 19 team moneyline parlay would've paid, and that would include the Mercer, Dayton, and North Dakota St moneylines
beachbumbabs
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:49:32 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I wonder what a 19 team moneyline parlay would've paid, and that would include the Mercer, Dayton, and North Dakota St moneylines



Still 21 people standing for the billion at 20/20. For some reason, the list starts repeating after that, but not all the way through.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 1:53:22 PM permalink
Tennessee is upsetting UMass right now... which isn't upsetting "N$" since he/she picked Tennessee!
michael99000
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:08:32 PM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

Tennessee is upsetting UMass right now... which isn't upsetting "N$" since he/she picked Tennessee!



Lol yes I love these CBS upset alert flashes on the screen.

Ummm.. 11 seed Tennessee was a 7 point favorite in an 11 vs 6 game.

Perhaps the oddsmakers should be doing the seeding. I can guarantee Cinci vs Harvard would not have been a 12-5 game.
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:27:04 PM permalink
Oh, Tennessee was the odds favorite? Amusing!

Perhaps you are right re: who should be seeding the tournament, but I don't think they want to be any more in bed with the betting industry.
98Clubs
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March 21st, 2014 at 3:42:36 PM permalink
I had Tenn. today, and over the Dukies that FAILED.
FWIW Gonzaga, K. State, and Wichita St. still alive.

Still rooting for Harvard and Tenn. one more time.
My big upsets were Harvard over MI State, and Tenn. over Duke.

I might still be in the local gin-mill pool.

Is it me or is it that no one is hitting deep-2's? (say between free-throw and the 3-point line)
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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March 21st, 2014 at 3:47:01 PM permalink
Quote: 98Clubs

I had Tenn. today, and over the Dukies that FAILED.
FWIW Gonzaga, K. State, and Wichita St. still alive.

Still rooting for Harvard and Tenn. one more time.
My big upsets were Harvard over MI State, and Tenn. over Duke.

I might still be in the local gin-mill pool.

Is it me or is it that no one is hitting deep-2's? (say between free-throw and the 3-point line)



It's not just you. Too much adrenalin rush for the first game to make shots til well into the game. Then late panic.

Funny bracketing, as always. I had hoped I guessed enough upsets to be viable, but yuck....
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
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March 21st, 2014 at 4:33:23 PM permalink
I note that of the 6 perfect brackets, 4 of them are, seemingly, picked by women. Hhmmmmmm...
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Dalex64
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March 21st, 2014 at 6:22:31 PM permalink
one perfect bracket left, 25 of 25
https://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/quickenloansbracket/2030973
Wizard
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March 22nd, 2014 at 6:43:44 AM permalink
I have some bets on the sum of seeds in the final four. I'm betting on a low number.

After the first round, the average seed is 5.938. Compare this to an average at this point from previous years of 5.786. So, a bit more bracket busting than usual, but nothing remarkable. The following table shows the average seed in round 2 by year, in order of average seed. Note that two years ago was the biggest bracket busting year.

Year Avg Second Round Seed
2000 4.844
2007 4.906
2004 5.063
1994 5.375
1988 5.406
2003 5.438
1985 5.531
1990 5.594
2011 5.594
1992 5.625
1993 5.625
1996 5.656
2005 5.688
1997 5.719
2008 5.813
2002 5.844
1987 5.875
2009 5.938
2014 5.938
1998 5.969
1995 6.000
2010 6.000
1999 6.063
1986 6.094
2006 6.094
1989 6.188
1991 6.281
2001 6.375
2013 6.500
2012 6.563
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:19:53 PM permalink
Here is my Sweet Sixteen progress report.

With 16 teams left the average seed is 4.9375. The average of at this point in all previous years is 4.364.

The following table shows the average remaining seed at this point in order of average. Of the 30 seasons since March Madness started, in its current form, 2014 has the 23rd lowest average Sweet Sixteen seed. So, more upsets, going by seed, than the average year, but nothing extremely unusual.

Year Average
2009 3.063
1989 3.125
1995 3.188
2007 3.188
1996 3.688
1994 3.750
1991 4.000
1993 4.063
1992 4.188
2003 4.188
1987 4.250
2001 4.250
1988 4.375
2008 4.375
2006 4.438
2005 4.500
2004 4.563
2012 4.563
2002 4.688
1998 4.750
1997 4.813
1985 4.875
2014 4.938
2010 5.000
2011 5.000
2013 5.063
2000 5.313
1990 5.500
1999 5.500
1986 5.563
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
PBguy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 11:47:39 PM permalink
I'm really happy the SDSU Aztecs made it to the Sweet 16! After watching Arizona destroy Gonzaga tonight I'm not feeling too confident that the Aztecs will be able to stop the Wildcats though. Sure would be exciting to see the Aztecs make it to the Elite 8 or Final Four for the first time in school history. Go AZTECS!!!
endermike
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March 24th, 2014 at 8:27:58 AM permalink
Wiz, have you done a regression looking at how average seed value left at round of 32, S16, E8 correlate to seed value at the F4? On one hand more high number seeds advancing mean more high number seeds available to make the F4. On the other hand those teams are less able to pull upsets over 1 and 2 seeds than 3-6 seed are. Hence maybe the Cinderella teams run to the intermediate stages and then flame out predictably. I would guess that the overall correlation is a positive but not strong.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 24th, 2014 at 9:14:04 AM permalink
Quote: endermike

Wiz, have you done a regression looking at how average seed value left at round of 32, S16, E8 correlate to seed value at the F4?



No. Let me just give you this, the average seed at each level, in the 29 years of March Madness, plus this season for the first two rounds.

Round Avg. Seed
32 5.786
Sweet 16 4.425
Elite 8 3.116
Final 4 2.698
Terrific 2 2.293
Winner 1.931
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 6th, 2014 at 8:12:25 AM permalink
Here is an update of the average seed at each round, before this season, and for this season. Basically, it shows the dogs are doing very well this season. The average seed of 7.5 in the Terrific Two (if I can call it that) is the highest by far. The previous record was 5.5 in 2011.

Round 2014 Avg. Seed
32 5.938 5.781
Sweet 16 4.938 4.407
Elite 8 4.500 3.116
Final 4 4.500 2.698
Terrific 2 7.500 2.293
Winner ? 1.931


The winner will be a 7 or 8 seed. Until now, the lowest seed to win was an 8 in the first year of 1985. A 7 seed has never won.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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