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Wizard
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November 24th, 2014 at 8:51:07 PM permalink
Indeed, good game Ravens. Remember the commandment, "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." I keep telling myself this in times like this, and sometimes I don't listen to myself.

Here are the results so far this season:

Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.

I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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November 24th, 2014 at 8:51:59 PM permalink
Nice!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
texasplumr
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November 25th, 2014 at 5:57:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Indeed, good game Ravens. Remember the commandment, "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." I keep telling myself this in times like this, and sometimes I don't listen to myself.

Here are the results so far this season:

Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.

I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.



I'm paying attention and since I'd never heard of these before, I'm trying to learn.

I remember you posting the losses but guess I haven't paid attention to the wins. That's a nice rate of return!
Stupid is a choice
teddys
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November 25th, 2014 at 7:04:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%..

Umm...can you start a hedge fund? :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
rainman
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November 25th, 2014 at 8:06:21 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Indeed, good game Ravens. Remember the commandment, "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." I keep telling myself this in times like this, and sometimes I don't listen to myself.

Here are the results so far this season:

Bets: $9,715
Return: $20,000
Rate of return: 206%.

I'm trying to lead the horse to water here. Hopefully y'all are paying attention.



Can you give a ratio of winning vs losing tickets up to this point?
Wizard
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November 25th, 2014 at 8:23:07 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

Can you give a ratio of winning vs losing tickets up to this point?



Not exactly. I'd estimate 13 losers to every one winner.

I shouldn't toot my own horn too loudly. I fully admit that I'm exceeding expectations.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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November 25th, 2014 at 10:04:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Not exactly. I'd estimate 13 losers to every one winner.

I shouldn't toot my own horn too loudly. I fully admit that I'm exceeding expectations.

OR Maybe you should.

Have you had years doing this that were under expectation ? Of Course you have.

Now it's probably making up for it.

Unfortunately for us, I believe we are getting better value, percentages wize, skipping marginal value games or ones that actually end up matching the correct line. They end up coming in causing less winners.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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November 27th, 2014 at 11:19:43 AM permalink
Week 13 William Hill card:



Strong plays:
Hou -6.5
Buf -2.5
NYG -2.5
Pats +3.5

Not a very strong week. I'd suggest just doing that four-teamer.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
djatc
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November 27th, 2014 at 11:49:35 AM permalink
Wizard how early do you pick up these half point sheets, and how early do you think they come out?
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Wizard
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November 27th, 2014 at 12:34:36 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

Wizard how early do you pick up these half point sheets, and how early do you think they come out?



They come out late Wednesday or early Thursday. I put them in on Thursday or Friday.

I know the next post will take me to task for not waiting longer, but the longer you wait, the more heat you get.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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December 6th, 2014 at 10:23:57 AM permalink
Anyone have a William Hill card for this week?
bigfoot66
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December 14th, 2014 at 5:25:23 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Anyone have a William Hill card for this week?



It's a great week on this so far. If the Cowboys cover +3.5 it will be very good. If saints cover tomorrow night we will crush the sportsbook!
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NokTang
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December 15th, 2014 at 3:39:52 AM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

It's a great week on this so far. If the Cowboys cover +3.5 it will be very good. If saints cover tomorrow night we will crush the sportsbook!



Great. Thanks for posting the card and picks.
bigfoot66
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December 15th, 2014 at 8:24:11 PM permalink
I got to Vegas at 6:00 Saturday night and didn't get to the sportsbook until 8:30 so I'm not sure I could have helped you even if I posted it. But there were 5 picks that were off of a 3 point line. I took a 5 teamer and 5 4 teasers...all won! I realized a ROI of about 1000%.
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Mission146
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December 15th, 2014 at 9:18:27 PM permalink
Congratulations, huge win!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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December 16th, 2014 at 6:50:29 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I got to Vegas at 6:00 Saturday night and didn't get to the sportsbook until 8:30 so I'm not sure I could have helped you even if I posted it. But there were 5 picks that were off of a 3 point line. I took a 5 teamer and 5 4 teasers...all won! I realized a ROI of about 1000%.



Wow, that's huge! well done!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
z2newton
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December 18th, 2014 at 4:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I got to Vegas at 6:00 Saturday night and didn't get to the sportsbook until 8:30 so I'm not sure I could have helped you even if I posted it. But there were 5 picks that were off of a 3 point line. I took a 5 teamer and 5 4 teasers...all won! I realized a ROI of about 1000%.



It may have helped if you posted some numbers. For me the nearest sportsbook is a 4 hour round trip. I probably would have gotten up early Sunday and at least thought about making the trip. 2 weeks ago looked really good. At least 5 3 point lines. Not sure if they were all -2.5 on the cards though.

Congrats. Which book did you use?

Looks like the wizard is back. Hopefully he'll post a card.
z2newton
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December 18th, 2014 at 6:17:00 PM permalink
For 1 vs. to 1

Tables from wizards' article.
So this should really be computed on a "to 1" basis instead of a "for 1" basis. Correct?
Hopefully I copy and pasted correctly and didn't get some column and rows mixed up.

Random Picker
Legs Pays to 1 prob. win house edge
3 5.5 0.125000 -0.3125
4 12 0.062500 -0.25
5 24 0.031250 -0.25
6 49 0.015625 -0.234375
7 99 0.007813 -0.226513
8 199 0.003906 -0.222706
9 399 0.001953 -0.220753
10 849 0.000977 -0.170527
11 1,599 0.000488 -0.219688
12 2,999 0.000244 -0.268244



Half Point Picker
Legs Pays to 1 prob. win house edge
3 5.5 0.146839 -0.1923855
4 12 0.077468 -0.070384
5 24 0.040870 -0.01912
6 49 0.021562 0.056538
7 99 0.011375 0.126125
8 199 0.006001 0.194199
9 399 0.003166 0.263234
10 849 0.001670 0.417830
11 1,599 0.000881 0.408719
12 2,999 0.000465 0.394535



3 and 7 Picker
Legs Pays to 1 prob. win house edge
3 5.5 0.161187 -0.1134715
4 12 0.087722 0.052664
5 24 0.047740 0.145760
6 49 0.025981 0.273069
7 99 0.014140 0.399860
8 199 0.007695 0.531305
9 399 0.004188 0.671012
10 849 0.002279 0.934871
11 1,599 0.001240 0.982760
12 2,999 0.000675 1.024325
z2newton
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December 19th, 2014 at 4:30:20 PM permalink
Just remembered there are games tomorrow. Cards??
Wizard
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December 19th, 2014 at 5:05:06 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

Just remembered there are games tomorrow. Cards??



Ask and ye shall receive. Week 16 William Hill card below. Click on it for a larger image.



Strong card this week! Here are my recommended strongest plays.

Pick Market
GB -10.5 -12
Det -6.5 -8.5
NEP -9.5 -10.5
StL -4.5 -6.5
Buf -5.5 -7
Dal -2.5 -3.5


BTW, I hear the William Hill books in Reno pay even better odds. Can anybody confirm or deny?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
clamchowder
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December 19th, 2014 at 8:15:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


BTW, I hear the William Hill books in Reno pay even better odds. Can anybody confirm or deny?



That is correct. About 4-6% better payouts. The tickets read "Northern Nevada Parlay Card" or something of that nature.

LVA Sports shows a side-by-side picture at:

I would be curious to see how this affects odds. I did some ballparking and I like it, although I always seem to miss by one team.
Wizard
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December 19th, 2014 at 9:42:03 PM permalink
Quote: clamchowder

I would be curious to see how this affects odds.



So was I. The following table shows the expected value, based on a 54% chance of picking each leg correctly.

Legs Southern Nevada Pays Northern Nevada Pays Prob. Win Southern Nevada EV Northern Nevada EV
3 6.5 6.75 15.75% 2.35% 6.29%
4 13 13 8.50% 10.54% 10.54%
5 25 26 4.59% 14.79% 19.38%
6 50 52 2.48% 23.97% 28.93%
7 100 104 1.34% 33.89% 39.25%
8 190 208 0.72% 37.37% 50.39%
9 400 425 0.39% 56.17% 65.93%
10 825 850 0.21% 73.94% 79.21%
11 1500 1500 0.11% 70.77% 70.77%
12 3000 3000 0.06% 84.44% 84.44%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
clamchowder
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December 19th, 2014 at 9:58:55 PM permalink
The Peppermill Reno has similar high odds, although I think the William Hill card is better or equal on all payouts. I know it is 6.75 for 3-team,

Atlantis Reno is also an independent book, but I do not have information on their cards. MGM and Caesar's have Reno books, but I do not know whether their cards match the Vegas cards. Everyone else that I know of in Northern Nevada is William Hill although I have read about some odd little places in Tahoe that ran independent.

If no one does it before the 2015 season starts, I will run around next time I am in Reno and compare those other three. I could also snap photos if you are interested in adding to the Parlay Bets page. But no Reno trips planned for me in the next couple weeks.
Wizard
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December 19th, 2014 at 10:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: clamchowder

If no one does it before the 2015 season starts, I will run around next time I am in Reno and compare those other three. I could also snap photos if you are interested in adding to the Parlay Bets page. But no Reno trips planned for me in the next couple weeks.



I would indeed be interested in those other cards and would add the payoffs to my page if given the information.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
z2newton
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December 19th, 2014 at 11:46:12 PM permalink
The Peppermill doesn't have a "1/2 point" parlay card. It's just called a parlay card. I'd say 95 percent of the lines on the card are on a .5 point but some are full points.

Peppermill:

3...........6.75 for 1
4...........13
5...........26
6...........50
7...........100
8...........200
9...........420
10.........850
Wizard
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December 20th, 2014 at 8:07:44 AM permalink
Quote: z2newton

The Peppermill doesn't have a "1/2 point" parlay card. It's just called a parlay card. I'd say 95 percent of the lines on the card are on a .5 point but some are full points.



Thanks. I expect the full points are usually 3 and 7.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
clamchowder
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December 20th, 2014 at 2:06:56 PM permalink
Quote: z2newton

The Peppermill doesn't have a "1/2 point" parlay card. It's just called a parlay card. I'd say 95 percent of the lines on the card are on a .5 point but some are full points.



This is true. Ties reduce action to the lesser payout, i.e. a 5-team becomes a 4-team. So there's less of a chance of getting key-number 1/2 points. But they also have different numbers than William Hill, so lines between the two cards can vary by a whole point.
bigfoot66
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December 21st, 2014 at 1:42:57 AM permalink
Extremely strong card this week. I made several bets totaling $120 and each card took a long time to print (most were $15). The ticket writer said, "the Rams line is really good so they have to approve them all in Vegas". I almost laughed out loud. The Rams line is ok but the Cowboys, lions, and pats lines are much stronger. I made a couple of smaller but identical plays to avoid heat rather than making large bets. Not sure if it was necessary but this is a great play and I would prefer not to be on their radar at all.
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Wizard
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December 21st, 2014 at 6:17:32 AM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

Extremely strong card this week. I made several bets totaling $120 and each card took a long time to print (most were $15). The ticket writer said, "the Rams line is really good so they have to approve them all in Vegas". I almost laughed out loud. The Rams line is ok but the Cowboys, lions, and pats lines are much stronger. I made a couple of smaller but identical plays to avoid heat rather than making large bets. Not sure if it was necessary but this is a great play and I would prefer not to be on their radar at all.



Agreed. Good card this week. The writer at Hooters said certain games had moved and automatically triggered review.

There was only one window open and I was making the people behind me in line very impatient as I had to wait to get through about 20 cards but they were all approved.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bigfoot66
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December 21st, 2014 at 6:50:16 AM permalink
I'm going to see how many more I can put in this morning. Good luck, and go Lions/Cowboys/Pats!!!
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bigfoot66
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December 21st, 2014 at 8:15:57 AM permalink
I just got down another $200 on 10 cards, all were Cowboys/lions and all took a long time to process, but they took them all. Largest bets were $30. Good on them, some books are not taking action on the cards for the lions game.
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Wizard
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December 21st, 2014 at 4:59:39 PM permalink
I hope you guys didn't bet too much. I'm 2-5 on my big plays.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
bigfoot66
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December 21st, 2014 at 5:03:26 PM permalink
I had lions -6.5 on every card. Still ahead for the trip fortunately. 2-5 is a win in the parlay game, right?
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z2newton
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December 22nd, 2014 at 11:55:25 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hope you guys didn't bet too much. I'm 2-5 on my big plays.



Luckily no. Given how volatile the lines were it'll be interesting to see what happens this week with the last game of the regular season assuming playoff teams are going to be resting/limited action of key players.
Wizard
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December 27th, 2014 at 10:01:02 AM permalink
Here is the last regular season parlay cards for William Hill and the South Point casinos. Speaking of the South Point casinos, they also depressed most of their pays. They are now:

Pick 3: 6.5
Pick 4: 12
Pick 5: 25
Pick 6: 45
Pick 7: 80
Pick 8: 160

The only one worth doing is the pick 5.


Click on image for larger version.

Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)

In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.

A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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December 27th, 2014 at 10:09:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is the last regular season parlay cards for William Hill and the South Point casinos. Speaking of the South Point casinos, they also depressed most of their pays. They are now:

Pick 3: 6.5
Pick 4: 12
Pick 5: 25
Pick 6: 45
Pick 7: 80
Pick 8: 160

The only one worth doing is the pick 5.


Click on image for larger version.

Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)

In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.

A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.

You like them because you believe there is a statistical advantage or because you're handicapping them ,or both?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Keeneone
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December 27th, 2014 at 11:06:03 AM permalink
The Southpoint card image has cut off most/all of the spreads.
Wizard
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December 27th, 2014 at 11:12:03 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You like them because you believe there is a statistical advantage or because you're handicapping them ,or both?



Statistical advantage. I almost never handicap.

Quote: Keeneone

The Southpoint card image has cut off most/all of the spreads.



Oops. Try this one
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Keeneone
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December 27th, 2014 at 11:51:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Oops. Try this one



Thanks for posting.

Browns money line with 3rd quarterback, no J. Gordon and @ the Ravens. Interesting play, I know you are not handicapping these and I am routing for you.

----------

The W. Vir/Texas AM line is now @ W.Vir -1 (with the loss of their first string QB).
NokTang
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December 28th, 2014 at 3:40:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard


A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.



Online, showing...

Browns +650 and Raiders +725

Regardless, good luck!
Wizard
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December 28th, 2014 at 4:06:19 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Online, showing...

Browns +650 and Raiders +725

Regardless, good luck!



I got the lines I mentioned at the Rampart, which is part of the South Point group. Goes to show that you get a better value on underdogs here in town.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
terapined
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December 29th, 2014 at 9:04:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



Wizard picks:
Colts -6.5 (market -7)
Panthers +3.5 (market +3)
Chargers +2.5 (market +1)
Saints -3.5 (market -4)
Ravens -10.5 (market -13)
Bears +6.5 (market +6)
Redskins +6.5 (market +5.5)

In general, not a very strong week. Many of these plays are pretty weak and just there to fill out the card.

A bit off topic but let me go on record as saying that I like Browns money line at +900 and Raiders +1100. Hopefully I'll be saying "I told you so" tomorrow.


I wish the Wiz was saying I old you so.
He's been so hot in the NFL pool picks.
played a combo of william hill 1/2 point cards of above and took money line Bowns Raiders.
Didn't do to well :-(
Have to take solace in the wiz's sig, it was a good bet.
wudged
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December 29th, 2014 at 5:39:30 PM permalink
Wizard, what were your final season results if you don't mind sharing?
Wizard
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December 29th, 2014 at 8:14:23 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

Wizard, what were your final season results if you don't mind sharing?



bet $11,615
return $20,000
Win +72%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
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December 31st, 2014 at 9:48:06 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

bet $11,615
return $20,000
Win +72%

Those are John Paulson and T. Boone Pickens numbers.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
djatc
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December 31st, 2014 at 7:47:29 PM permalink
One hand I am glad you wrote about half points, since we didn't know about them, but now can you stop so we can make some money lol.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
z2newton
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August 17th, 2015 at 9:52:45 PM permalink
1/2 point season is close upon us. I'm curious to know if anyone has info on payouts changing? Wizard said that Stations lowered theirs.

I hope william hill doesn't.
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