I agree that luck can never be ruled out. I for one would back someone with a 1000+ picks at 57% percent. That kind of luck seems worthy of bet tailing.
1 in 55 works for me? I hope my luck continues. The fact that only 1 in 30 will barely have any kind of profit left shows how hard it is to beat the vig since most are just flipping coins with their picks or worse.
I'm 500 bets in and still hitting at 55%; if this holds until 1000 or even 2000 bets what's odds of "luck" if one can hit 55% ATS that long?
I agree. I assume 50/50 is baseline so I'd like to see how often someone can stay above that for 1000+ picks? And also assuming an edge how rare would it be to be below 50% after 1000+ picks. I imagine 1000+ picks would weed out skill vs luck especially if one was still at a 55% clip. But maybe not?
Bet Bouncing can ruin even good systems. I'm mainly a flat unit guys. Guys who are up but pick under 50% are just lucky. We all have those friends who goes big in playoffs etc to make up for a bad season. It works till it doesn't. Also guys that can beat the spread over 1000s of picks can still bust if they bet too big and then have a bad run of 11 out of 15 losers etc. It happens =(
Let's say I've got 5% edge. Betting on 1.3 odds (-333). Would would be calculations for 2,3 and -2,-3 SD please? Im struggling to do it myself. Thanks.