Professor Slots

A question posed to the Wizard during the latest "ask anything" live youtube event was about whether Professor Slots was worth listening to. So I don't know if anyone else has, but I investigated a little. 


In his original video, he tells us he is a successful gambler and a prof. at not one but two universities. He specializes in Pattern Recognition [uh-oh] ,  Decision Analysis, and System Simulation. He says he is an Aerospace Engineer as well. 8 degrees hang on his wall. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtYmYVlVKpQ short video.


So what does he say to do? I'm not sure how many more videos I'll watch, but the closest thing to something solid I can find is 'the Goodness Ratio'.


So in this next video the professor says you should check out the Goodness Ratio, and that is determined this way: "if the top jackpot is in currency, divide it by both the denomination and the maximum credits. If the top jackpot is displayed in credits, divide it by only the maximum credits. " ... he then gives an example of 6000/3 but does not say if 2000 is good or bad or what. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-sCJNpsJHU  very short video


In the next video I examined, he spends much the time tossing out tidbits of advice, some good, like only playing with what you can afford to lose. He again goes into the Goodness Ratio without explaining why knowing this helps. One ratio was only 800, so I guess he's saying that is bad. 


But he also churns out some dubious advice I'll call him out on. 
- he refers to RTP, return to player, as "odds of winning"
- asserts "be careful initially, making as few as 20 bets, to determine if it happens to be a bad machine"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag4NwvaN0io  a bit longer video


bottom line: it's the first time I've heard anyone claim there's any reason to look at the paytable of a slot machine. Until someone I respect can say there is something to that, I'm putting this guy down as an opportunistic BS artist.

I don't know who this poor man's Robert DeNiro is, but just from your description and reading the titles of the videos, it's total nonsense.

I'm afraid I have some other work that I must be doing over the next few days...and I am probably about, "Debunked out," for a few days anyway...so maybe this upcoming weekend or next week I will do an overall review of his Youtube channel and watch a few hours worth of videos.

I'm sure it will be entertaining, if the definition of, 'Entertaining,' is wanting to blow one's own brains out. (This is a joke)

His website sells one hour private discussions for $297, so we're already off to a good start. People can compare that to someone like myself or Wizard who sometimes identify beatable slots, for free, and explain why they're beatable. We're also far from the only credible sources. Most of us who do openly discuss these things at all do so for free, so that should tell you everything you need to know about Professor Slots.

One reviewer (on his site, of course) tells of winning $1,272 on a Tarzan slot when visiting Las Vegas. That's a ringing endorsement. I doubt if anyone has ever won such a windfall on a slot machine without his advice ever in the history of slot machines.

He has some sort of online course that, at '50% off,' is $97.

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.

You can also access his, "Slots community," for $35...which should be really useful for people who don't know how to do a Google or Facebook search for free groups.

I'm not saying he's a scam just yet, even though he almost certainly is, but that's the way it's looking. Anyway, I'll get to it this weekend. Probably start drinking again. Is that was this is about? You really want me to change my physical relationship to the wagon, don't you? (JK)

Quote: Mission146

preserving link only
link to original post

well now, you were the first to joke about going back to the bottle. So I am only hoping joking about it, as you continue to do, is helping your vow to go Total T. I think you knew that already, but some others may feel I'm a bit out of line with it

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Mission146

preserving link only
link to original post

well now, you were the first to joke about going back to the bottle. So I am only hoping joking about it, as you continue to do, is helping your vow to go Total T. I think you knew that already, but some others may feel I'm a bit out of line with it
link to original post

There's no offense taken on my end. If nothing else, I think the fact that I have an alcohol abuse problem is pretty funny, so anyone can make whatever jokes/statements about that they wish. That said, the jokes on my end have a tinge of truth to them...seeing all of this misinformation all over the place really does make me want to drink!

It's enough that gambling can become problematic for some people, as it is, without charlatans (I am not saying Professor Slots is yet...haven't watched the vids) charging people money to convince them that they can win whilst, "Teaching," them nothing that actually yields a mathematical advantage.

A fool and his money, I guess. I'll do some watching and reviewing over the weekend, so you can probably expect an article on that sometime next week. Can't combat all of the misinformation, though; it's hard enough just to keep it more-or-less in check on this forum.

Quote: Mission146

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.
link to original post

Your expertise is worth at least triple that.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Mission146

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.
link to original post

Your expertise is worth at least triple that.
link to original post

Really? You think I could get that much? I'd hate to overcharge.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Mission146

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.
link to original post

Your expertise is worth at least triple that.
link to original post

Really? You think I could get that much? I'd hate to overcharge.
link to original post

Be a steal at twice the price.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Mission146

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.
link to original post

Your expertise is worth at least triple that.
link to original post

Really? You think I could get that much? I'd hate to overcharge.
link to original post

I bought a copy of "Slot Experts Guide to Playing Slots" by Robison a few months ago for perhaps $4.

I think you could get at least half that for a 4 hour one on one coaching session.

(I gave the book away to an acquaintance because he just wasn't understanding the concept of a progressive meter. It was worth the $4 to not spend 3 more hours on the phone trying to explain it.)

Some stuff vis-a-vis Progressives is likely legitimate information, but if the book only covered basic concepts, then people could get that for free.

When it comes to Progressives, the only information that would ever conceivably worth paying for would be play points as those would require either a combination empirical/mathematical analysis or someone actually having access to the PAR Sheets. Even that would represent only a good starting point given the fact that machines with the same title could have different RTP's, and sometimes, different probabilities of hitting the Progressives to begin with.

Of course, anyone selling such information for money wouldn't make a big point out of making sure the buyer knows that, at least, not until they have already made the purchase.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: Mission146

Would you like to know what machines I know about? You have my number. I will give you 50% off, which makes it free, because 50% off $0.00 would still be $0.00.
link to original post

Your expertise is worth at least triple that.
link to original post

I'd certainly add another zero to the end of his pay scale. Possibly even two. Even then I'm not sure he would be paid what he is worth.

Quote: Mission146

Some stuff vis-a-vis Progressives is likely legitimate information, but if the book only covered basic concepts, then people could get that for free.
link to original post

He was struggling with the notion that a game prize can increase as more games are played without that particular prize being awarded for a win.

So before we even think about meter rates or base game returns, I figured he should read the page and a half section on it.

If you want his number to explain it to him, I can get you the $4... but no hard feelings if you decline.

I'd explain it for free, but...

1.) How often does he gamble?

2.) Does my explanation actually have a chance of helping?

Quote: Mission146

I'd explain it for free, but...

1.) How often does he gamble?

2.) Does my explanation actually have a chance of helping?
link to original post

1.) Perhaps 3 times a year. (at present)

2.) No.

I tossed him a copy of Gambling 102 as well, so he can start to understand probability vs odds.



(Sorry for the hijack. Knowing the gentleman we are discussing, however, I have a pretty good idea of who Professor Slots' target student is.)

Quote: odiousgambit

So in this next video the professor says you should check out the Goodness Ratio, and that is determined this way: "if the top jackpot is in currency, divide it by both the denomination and the maximum credits. If the top jackpot is displayed in credits, divide it by only the maximum credits. " ... he then gives an example of 6000/3 but does not say if 2000 is good or bad or what. 

In the larger video that is excerpted from, he says higher is better. (This is not necessarily true or false; I believe he also said it depends on what your "gambling goals" are.)

Quote: odiousgambit

bottom line: it's the first time I've heard anyone claim there's any reason to look at the paytable of a slot machine. Until someone I respect can say there is something to that, I'm putting this guy down as an opportunistic BS artist.
link to original post

For the casual player, reading the paytable means they're not losing for a few minutes, even if they get no practical information from it.
I believe I've heard the advice of "stand up and walk around the chair three times every time you get a three of a kind" for casual video poker players, with the same overall intent.

This is a july 2020 video sent to me to by youtube, by being subscribed to his channel [for now], selected due to number of views. This one is really bad, claiming things that have been thoroughly debunked. Eight wasted minutes of your life you'll never get back. I suggest using closed caption, with the sound off, at 2x speed LOL.  

Why not see for yourself Mrsters odius gambits? if a homeless man across the street spewed the same info as this man did, would you take him w/ any credit? imo no

but since this man has studied in colleges and schools and what have you you decide to jump on em, again try his 5 method of spins on slots see if it works, if its operational about ten times over he maybe true if not discard discretly =)

if you do try his system/method do tell id like to hear it thx

whats a matter Odius? did his system work or not? =)

Quote: Kristmitchell

whats a matter Odius? did his system work or not? =)
link to original post

Dear Mr. Mitchell,

I saw your first post and decided my best course of action would be to ignore it, so replying now is against my best instincts. However, perhaps you've caught me in a moment where I might believe you are asking in good faith, and after all much of the other threads are boring the hell out of me [that could be 'just me'] so why not?

Evidently you feel if someone claims to be an expert in something, you can take his word for it, that he is just that. Perhaps you feel no person with a wall full of framed text that he claims are diplomas would attempt to deceive? Yet my instincts, after just a minute or so, told me to be wary of Herr Professor.

I'd like a close-up of some of those diplomas. I suspect they might read like the below image.

Can you tell me why you believe I should risk my money, when I am wary?

no no sir, you came to this site and posted a man, a man with a background of math (or i assume of math) and this man went on to spew "his" "beliefs" of attacking the slot machines and if some homeless man claim the same deal youd look the other way

if you want to be wary thats totally and only up to u

Quote: Kristmitchell

no no sir, you came to this site and posted a man, a man with a background of math (or i assume of math) and this man went on to spew "his" "beliefs" of attacking the slot machines and if some homeless man claim the same deal youd look the other way

if you want to be wary thats totally and only up to u
link to original post

Trying to understand why Kristmitchell is goading OdiousGambit, and why indeed ODG bothers to reply.
As I understand it, ODG flags this so called Professor as a total hocus pocus BS SELLER and believes him no more than he would believe a hobo in the street. And it seems KM has a similar point of view of the Prof. Yet KM seems to be challenging ODG to some sort of 'try it if you want to' dare.
The only two things of any note about the 'professor' are that 1: He claims an absurd level of qualification. 2: He want's to charge money or receive revenue from Youtube.

We have a saying here "I wouldn't touch him with a barge-pole."

Quote: OnceDear

Trying to understand why Kristmitchell is goading OdiousGambit, and why indeed ODG bothers to reply.
As I understand it, ODG flags this so called Professor as a total hocus pocus BS SELLER and believes him no more than he would believe a hobo in the street. And it seems KM has a similar point of view of the Prof. Yet KM seems to be challenging ODG to some sort of 'try it if you want to' dare.

I also am quite puzzled as to why someone might think I am, what? a daredevil?

Quote:

The only two things of any note about the 'professor' are that 1: He claims an absurd level of qualification. 2: He want's to charge money or receive revenue from Youtube.

We have a saying here "I wouldn't touch him with a barge-pole."
link to original post

If Mr Mitchell isn't just trolling me, I have to wonder if he feels like defending the professor because he wants to believe the man can help slot players. Clearly, others agree. His name wasn't brought up in a Wizard ask-anything because no one ever heard of him. Mission is saying he will write an article on Prof Slots. Why don't we see what the article has to say?

Quote: odiousgambit

Mission is saying he will write an article on Prof Slots. Why don't we see what the article has to say?
link to original post

interesting. Prof Slots fronts an LLC business. I wonder how frank Mission may be before Zuga has to worry about a libel or slander suit.
One thing for we members to express reservations. Quite another for a business to business attack.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: OnceDear

Trying to understand why Kristmitchell is goading OdiousGambit, and why indeed ODG bothers to reply.
As I understand it, ODG flags this so called Professor as a total hocus pocus BS SELLER and believes him no more than he would believe a hobo in the street. And it seems KM has a similar point of view of the Prof. Yet KM seems to be challenging ODG to some sort of 'try it if you want to' dare.

I also am quite puzzled as to why someone might think I am, what? a daredevil?

Quote:

The only two things of any note about the 'professor' are that 1: He claims an absurd level of qualification. 2: He want's to charge money or receive revenue from Youtube.

We have a saying here "I wouldn't touch him with a barge-pole."
link to original post

If Mr Mitchell isn't just trolling me, I have to wonder if he feels like defending the professor because he wants to believe the man can help slot players. Clearly, others agree. His name wasn't brought up in a Wizard ask-anything because no one ever heard of him. Mission is saying he will write an article on Prof Slots. Why don't we see what the article has to say?
link to original post

Why do you assume they are a he? They could be a he or a she with a RL name like Karen or Nathan.

Quote: AxelWolf

[snip] They could be a he or a she with a RL name like Karen or Nathan.
link to original post

I did think the bad grammar and spelling was fake-looking, however, I don't remember Nathan doing that.

In any case, like I said, I'm throwing caution to the wind and indulging this person this time.

Quote: Kristmitchell

no no sir, you came to this site and posted a man, a man with a background of math (or i assume of math) and this man went on to spew "his" "beliefs" of attacking the slot machines and if some homeless man claim the same deal youd look the other way

if you want to be wary thats totally and only up to u
link to original post

The homeless guy with the YouTube channel and website selling hourly sessions for hundreds of dollars?

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: odiousgambit

Mission is saying he will write an article on Prof Slots. Why don't we see what the article has to say?
link to original post

interesting. Prof Slots fronts an LLC business. I wonder how frank Mission may be before Zuga has to worry about a libel or slander suit.
One thing for we members to express reservations. Quite another for a business to business attack.
link to original post

It’ll be a review of his videos; it’s fair use.

Any lawsuit…which he’d probably fail to file in a jurisdiction that could actually enforce it anyway, wouldn’t have a chance.

perhaps we'll find out how litigious the Prof. is ... Mission has posted his article!

I'm hoping Prof. Slots drops by to defend his work.

Quote: odiousgambit

... Mission has posted his article!
link to original post

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-nutty-professor/

Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

Quote: odiousgambit

... Mission has posted his article!
link to original post

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-nutty-professor/
link to original post

Thank you very much for posting the link!

Quote: odiousgambit

So what does he say to do? I'm not sure how many more videos I'll watch, but the closest thing to something solid I can find is 'the Goodness Ratio'.


So in this next video the professor says you should check out the Goodness Ratio, and that is determined this way: "if the top jackpot is in currency, divide it by both the denomination and the maximum credits. If the top jackpot is displayed in credits, divide it by only the maximum credits. " ... he then gives an example of 6000/3 but does not say if 2000 is good or bad or what. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-sCJNpsJHU  very short video


In the next video I examined, he spends much the time tossing out tidbits of advice, some good, like only playing with what you can afford to lose. He again goes into the Goodness Ratio without explaining why knowing this helps. One ratio was only 800, so I guess he's saying that is bad. 

I also saw your additional comment on the article (thank you!), but figured I'd respond to this here.

(Quote clipped, relevance)

The, "Goodness Ratio," tells me exactly nothing about the probability of the jackpot hitting. I also can't happen but notice that none of his many videos that I watched ever specifically mentioned that he hit a top jackpot on anything---much less actually identifying what machine he did it on.

For example, let's say we have a Ten-Spot Video Keno game by which a player can bet $1 and hit the jackpot which we will say is $85,500 for example purposes. His so-called, "Goodness Ratio," would be 85,500/1, which I would say would have to be phenomenal (by his standards), except for the fact that the ten spot is also 8,911,711.18:1 odds against hitting it and the overall contribution from that result would be under 1%. Given that most Video Keno paytables start somewhere in the 88-92% range (and progressives often start even lower than that), playing for this ten spot would get you killed.

I'm not saying that most slot top jackpots have such long odds against, though some of them do. A known one is Nine Quick Hits symbols on Quick Hits Platinum which is 2,073,600:1 Odds against and this is a machine found in many high limit rooms with a $15 max bet.

This jackpot starts at 2,000x the total amount bet, so if you double that, it becomes 4,000x bet. By his, "Goodness Ratio," I suppose that it's supposed to be pretty good, but the $30,000 extra in credits would actually only add (1/2073600 * 30000)/15 = 0.00096450617, which is not even one-tenth of one percent added to the overall return.

Overall, this jackpot would add less than two tenths of one percent to the game's overall return. From an expected value standpoint, it's pretty darn near irrelevant by itself unless it gets to a positively ridiculous number.

With that, Professor Slots is looking to sell people on delusions and simple solutions to...I don't want to say, 'Complex,' problems...but problems that are at least more complex than he is making them out to be.

Similarly, you could look at a result of five Quick Hits with odds of 230:1 and base pay being 10x total bet...which is $150 on the $15 bet.

If we imagine that the five QH Jackpot is at $900 on this machine, then you would divide that by the $15 being bet and the, "Goodness Ratio," would be 900/15 = 60.

I'd assume that he would consider that not good, but doing the same thing:

(1/230 * 900)/15 = 0.26086956521

We see that the 5QH result adds (not that you're going to see this often and maybe not ever---this is for example only) 26.087% to the return, which is huge. This would absolutely put any QHP machine in extremely positive territory.

Which is why, "Goodness Ratio," is nonsensical, irrelevant and meaningless. If the goal is to play machines that are in positive territory, then you need to know the probabilities of the jackpots even hitting, or at least have enough of a sample sizing of jackpot frequencies to make an educated guess. That's why Video Poker and Video Keno progressives are generally easier to know whether or not they are at an advantage---the probabilities are already known or can be calculated with readily available tools.

thanks, nonsense as I suspected. Yet I still hear his comment, paraphrasing, in one of those videos, "so many players are being taken advantage of by the casinos because they don't know to study the paytables of the slots" and look for this goodness ratio. He must put that stuff out and crack up laughing.

I fear we may need to brace ourselves for this guy being successful. So far I think he's likely short of that, but with @30,000 youtube subscribers at this moment he could be on his way. Somehow I doubt his website is getting it done.

But what if casinos realize he's just a joke as far as helping people win [thus costing them] and get the bright idea to help him promote himself in order to get attention for themselves and getting endorsements from him?

Quote: odiousgambit

thanks, nonsense as I suspected. Yet I still hear his comment, paraphrasing, in one of those videos, "so many players are being taken advantage of by the casinos because they don't know to study the paytables of the slots" and look for this goodness ratio. He must put that stuff out and crack up laughing.

I fear we may need to brace ourselves for this guy being successful. So far I think he's likely short of that, but with @30,000 youtube subscribers at this moment he could be on his way. Somehow I doubt his website is getting it done.

But what if casinos realize he's just a joke as far as helping people win [thus costing them] and get the bright idea to help him promote himself in order to get attention for themselves and getting endorsements from him?
link to original post

What---that casinos would perpetuate the sharing of myths by individuals who look to sell gambling systems? I would like to say that I couldn't imagine a casino doing any such thing, except, at best, they already turn a blind eye to it. I wouldn't be surprised if a casino reached out to him to sponsor him, in any case. I should also imagine, by now, that's it is something that he has already started looking into.

Did you notice the comment asking why he doesn't do any live videos of his strategies in action? He says something to the effect of there are already channels that do that instead of explaining ways to win. Mmmhmm. Yet, his entire premise as to, "Explaining ways to win," is that winning is so repeatable based on his pattern recognition.

Finally! A man who understands how things work. Agree with everything he says in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EomDfEAIcC0

The "Goodness Ratio" is nonsense, but the exact number is not the concern.

He is advising "slots enthusiasts" to use his "goodness ratio" to compare games. The original video it is taken from--"Choosing Candidate Slot Machines" ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag4NwvaN0io )--compares 5 Times Pay (IGT) and Triple Lucky (IGT). The professor explains that the player can use the "goodness ratio" to avoid "sucker bets." The game with the higher top line pay relative to wager amount is the better one to play. You have to remember that he does not believe that slot machines are random, so he is telling people to play the more volatile game--though he does not think volatility, which he derides as simply a word for variance used incorrectly by idiots, applies to slot machines--because that slots enthusiast would win a larger prize if the machine is currently set to a theoretical RTP greater than 100%, the casino needs to pay out big wins to hit its payback target, or the player resets the machine (by cashing out and removing players card) to higher probability curve (I think that is how he refers to it).

Someone in the comments questioned the great and powerful Professor by bringing up Megabucks (1 in 49 million shot at progressive seeded at $10MM accounting for 7%(?) of the return).

The professor lets this dummy know that it cannot be used on progressive awards--forgetting seed values exist--and is no longer a useful tool as most games put the paytable in the game rules instead of displaying it. It can only be used on games that display paytable and have no progressive awards.