Bigger bet, bigger chance?

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

Addendum:

I realize after reading responses that I stated my question, at best, inelegantly. Better put (I hope), when playing an online slot with a jackpot, are my chances of hitting the jackpot the same on any single spin betting if I bet $1 or $10. Answering the question (from my perspective) would depend on knowing whether the ($1 / $10) bets are equally weighted in terms of their contribution to the jackpot pool, in which case one would expect the converse, that the yield, in terms of percentage of hitting said jackpot would be equal as well.

Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

This is far from a dumb question. Variance and things that would affect it seem to be hard to explain even by those qualified to do so [which is not really me, but I'll try]


The familiar situation in which the effect of bet size is easily explained is about whether you are churning your bankroll. If that is $100 in your example, then it would be easy to make more than ten $10 bets, cite-able for exposing your roll to 'grinding' ... allowing the HE* to grind away at it. Say you made 15 bets of $10. In that case, the EV of your session is easily shown to be mathematically larger in negative value than if you bet $1 at a time but only made 100 bets. But EV also does not answer your question. 


If you made ten $10 bets, or a hundred $1 bets, the EV is exaclty the same. Yet it is said to be smarter to do the former ... that it is smarter can not be proved by EV. 


Look at Standard Deviation. Let's say the HE is 8% for the slot you are playing, but we also need to know the SD. According to the link below [read fully for procedure explanation], this might be around 8 SD. 


For 100 one dollar bets, we take the sq rt , 10, multiply by $1 , and learn that a bit over 68% of the time the result will be +/- $10 from the EV of -$8 . **


For ten $10 bets, we take the sq rt of ten, 3.16, multiply by $10, and see that around 68% of the time the result will be +/- $31.60 from that expectation of losing $8 on average. So this is the only way I know to actually show how a few bets versus many bets, EV being the same, increase the Variance. 


I don't know of any formula like you propose, a ten times smaller bet being ten times better in probability [doesn't seem so]. I think you have to crunch the SD numbers. I hope I didn't make a mistake. 


https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/


*abbreviations you may know, but in case not, HE = house edge, EV = expected value, SD = standard deviation

** it occurs to me that we may have to ignore whether these kinds of results seem realistic with slots , similar to the realization that though a $5 bet on the pass line in Craps loses 7 cents on average, it is actually not possible to lose only 7 cents.

Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

No. It depends on the game and payout structure.

Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

No, not a dumb question.

I know for a fact that there were multi-denomination machines that gave better pays for a higher denomination bet. They used to include that info right on the screen. They seem to have stopped telling you whether that was part of the programming, or stopped using better slot paytables for higher denoms (same machine), or both.

It's been sort of standard (though not always), that higher denom machines pay better going up the amounts, both in general, and for the same game on different machines.

And it's almost universally true that video poker paytables are better at higher denominations for the same game, lots of times on the same machine.

Online, who knows? They certainly have the capability of offering better paytables for higher denominations. Whether any particular casino or game offers them is entirely up to the casino. They don't have the reporting requirements or oversight many land-based jurisdictions have, so they could claim lots of things that aren't true about the return to players.

Specific to how you phrased your question, though, you wouldn't increase your chances 10x or anywhere near that. You increase the amount at risk by 10x. You might get a 1% to 2% increased rate of return, if the operator rtp is in line with what many land-based casinos offer.

BBB is probably getting at what exactly you were asking much better than I was!

While your later comment is correct (I have edited the question to clarify its internet), your answer, which I thank you for, has opened other avenues of thought I need to address in order to further my knowledge. Thanks so much for the detail, right down to footnotes!

Thank you, beachbumbabs. You have perhaps summed up the answer to my question (which I've edited for clarity) when you wrote "Online, who knows?"

Your last paragraph (please see the edited question) might not be a valid assessment, IF, what I proffer in terms of weighted contribution vs weighted return reflects the true nature of the way online casinos handle jackpots.

Thanks so much for taking the time to share your knowledge!

Quote: thePest

Only because I've been told no question is a dumb question will I ask if the chances of hitting a jackpot playing an online slot machine are proportional to bet size. I.e. if I bet $10 per spin do I have a 10X better chance at hitting a jackpot than if I bet $1 per spin? It would make sense, but I've not seen the answer posted anywhere.

Addendum:

I realize after reading responses that I stated my question, at best, inelegantly. Better put (I hope), when playing an online slot with a jackpot, are my chances of hitting the jackpot the same on any single spin betting if I bet $1 or $10. Answering the question (from my perspective) would depend on knowing whether the ($1 / $10) bets are equally weighted in terms of their contribution to the jackpot pool, in which case one would expect the converse, that the yield, in terms of percentage of hitting said jackpot would be equal as well.

I'm not sure because nobody can be sure without knowing the details. Unless you know or are confident, look for somewhere else to put your money.

The slots that have the highest house edge are the penny slots. As you go up in denomination, they get looser. It does not matter how many coins you are playing, just the denom.

You hit the nail on the head, onenickelmiracle. I'm hoping for a reply from someone who DOES know! maybe I'll hit the jackpot and get an answer from that person or persons! Thanks again, for your response.

I see no great reason for an online casino to do anything different than the owner of a "real" casino would do.

Quote: thePest

You hit the nail on the head, onenickelmiracle. I'm hoping for a reply from someone who DOES know! maybe I'll hit the jackpot and get an answer from that person or persons! Thanks again, for your response.

What am I? Chopped liver? You did get a reply from someone who does know.

Quote: FCBLComish

What am I? Chopped liver? You did get a reply from someone who does know.

I almost started laughing and then felt bad but rationalized that he just didn’t see your comment or simply know that you work in the industry. Sorry if I ever said anything that wasn’t nice to you I do respect that you can work in the industry and (not partake?) in the festivities as I have no self control and wouldn’t be able to work at a casino in general

Apologies, FCBLComish. No disrespect intended....My question is specific to online slots which have a jackpot feature and the chances of hitting that jackpot one one given spin with two different sized bets. Your advice, which is more general in nature, is well taken and appreciated.

By the way, chopped liver is a good thing. I miss my grandmother's very much. her potato latkes as well.

Thanks again for your advice!

Thanks, FleaStiff. The problem with online casinos as opposed to brick and mortar entities is that they can, and do create their own rules, without having to answer to anyone. This leads to a lack of transparency. When I call or email customer service of an online establishment with a question, I often come away dissatisfied, because those agents either don't know the answer, or give evasive answers. As well, they don't like to escalate issues/questions to management because it reflects badly on them personally. It's a struggle, at best.

Land based casinos are held to a higher standard due to regulation and are thus more transparent. Those are the differences I see. Thanks again for your post

Quote: FCBLComish

The slots that have the highest house edge are the penny slots. As you go up in denomination, they get looser. It does not matter how many coins you are playing, just the denom.

But does this have no exceptions?

John Robinson seems like a straight shooter to me, and currently writes at a site where I find the article authors make an effort to avoid B.S.* I'll quote from one article, see link below, and I'd be interested in any comment.

Quote:

Slot machines do many things to encourage you to bet more. They might have progressives that are available only when you bet max coin. Or higher bets may trigger additional game elements that are not a result of a combination on the reels, like a randomly triggered bonus event, more frequently.

These tactics all involve higher bets at the same denomination. What happens if you change the denomination?

It's possible that selecting a higher denomination on a multi-denomination machine will load in a higher long-term payback program... [But] Even though it's possible that changing denomination could load new reel layouts, we can't verify it so I wouldn't count on it.

The safest assumption on a multi-denomination slot machine is that the long-term payback is the same across all denominations and the long-term payback was chosen based on the lowest denomination available on the machine.

http://robison.casinocitytimes.com/article/ask-the-slot-expert-does-raising-the-denomination-on-a-multi-denomination-slot-machine-raise-the-long-term-payback-66287

*These articles at this site can be really dumbed down [I don't think this one is], and the main contributors have to provide new articles constantly, which shows - it's too hard to write a great article every day. But the only thing I ever see that is dubious is the claim that dice setting really works.

There are some machines where putting in more coins open up more features. That is part of the game, and usually written into the rules. Fort Knox is a good example of this.

The percentage payback is something that is not visible to the player. Every slot game can be set to a variety of hold percentages. Generally in the industry, including on-line games, the hold percentage on the penny games is the highest, and it decreases as you get into the higher denominations.

Quote: FCBLComish

There are some machines where putting in more coins open up more features. That is part of the game, and usually written into the rules. Fort Knox is a good example of this.

The percentage payback is something that is not visible to the player. Every slot game can be set to a variety of hold percentages. Generally in the industry, including on-line games, the hold percentage on the penny games is the highest, and it decreases as you get into the higher denominations.

I have to ask you would you consider this behavior to be “adaptive” as from what I remember about gli standards it is something they advise against

I don't think that is what is meant by adaptive.

It certainly is true that online casinos can do whatever they please and are not likely to favor transparency. What I meant was that the economic motivation would be similar but online casinos do not necessarily follow economically ideal procedures.

i have no clue if this image is even real

Quote: heatmap

i have no clue if this image is even real

I'm a bit surprised the paytable is fully linear.

Quote: heatmap

i have no clue if this image is even real

the 2nd prize is not linear... $7.00, $15.00, $22.00, $30.00 and $37.00. So the best bet would be 2 coins or 4 coins.

I can say on some penny machines I've noticed, the people playing minimum bets get more bonus rounds and fewer jackpot hits. Obviously this means they will win less in the bonus round by playing the minimum and Progressive Jackpots are set amounts, so it makes sense that they would get the lower paying sequence vs the higher.

Quote: KevinAA

Quote: heatmap

i have no clue if this image is even real

the 2nd prize is not linear... $7.00, $15.00, $22.00, $30.00 and $37.00. So the best bet would be 2 coins or 4 coins.

Last time I was in Virginia City there was a very similar machine. I can’t remember which one and a few have closed. You could find a lot of old slots there for years.

Quote: KevinAA

Quote: heatmap

i have no clue if this image is even real

the 2nd prize is not linear... $7.00, $15.00, $22.00, $30.00 and $37.00. So the best bet would be 2 coins or 4 coins.

KevinAA,

I read it as $7.50, $15.00, $22.50, $30.00, and $37.50, which is fully linear.

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

KevinAA,

I read it as $7.50, $15.00, $22.50, $30.00, and $37.50, which is fully linear.

Dog Hand

I'm sure that's what it is. It's hard for me to see that.

hello patent which states exact subject of the title

"Gaming device having odds of winning which increase as a player's wager increases"

https://patents.google.com/patent/US7029395B1/en

The present invention provides a gaming device, wherein the game requires the same average investment from a player to win an award, including a jackpot award, regardless of the amount that the player bets at any one time. The award can be unchanging, e.g., $10,000, each time a player plays the gaming device. The award can also vary such as with a progressive jackpot, i.e., the jackpot builds until a player “hits” the jackpot. The game enables the average investment necessary to win the jackpot to be uniform by varying the odds of winning the jackpot as the player's bet varies.

--->>> That is, a player betting less money needs to play the game more times, on average, to win the jackpot. Likewise, a player betting more money needs to play the game less times, on average, to win the jackpot. The average overall bet or investment thus remains constant despite the player's betting habits or betting ability. <<<---

It's quite confusing to choose. I think it depends on the situation.

There used to be a class of games in casinos which in the business were referred to as "Buy a Pay" games. A simple example would be a 3 coin reel slot where if you bet 1 or 2 coins you could win on cherries and bars but 7's would pay nothing. If you bet 3 coins now 7's would pay in addition to the cherries and bars.

Quote: DRich

There used to be a class of games in casinos which in the business were referred to as "Buy a Pay" games. A simple example would be a 3 coin reel slot where if you bet 1 or 2 coins you could win on cherries and bars but 7's would pay nothing. If you bet 3 coins now 7's would pay in addition to the cherries and bars.

I wrote about just such a machine earlier in the thread. I forget when I played it, but I don't think it was much more than ten years ago, if that.

Quote: billryan

I wrote about just such a machine earlier in the thread. I forget when I played it, but I don't think it was much more than ten years ago, if that.

They still exist in the casinos.