Poll

No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (21.42%)
1 vote (7.14%)
3 votes (21.42%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (35.71%)
6 votes (42.85%)

14 members have voted

MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 2552
March 12th, 2019 at 11:58:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Since everybody is telling me 90% is too high, I reconfigured my simulation to pay 85%. I also made some adjustments with the bonus. That said, here are the new expected values on the next spin in non-bubble burst mode.

Reel Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
0 125% 120% 265% 71% 45%
1 188% 212% 554% 106% 47%
2 188% 211% 549% 105% 47%
3 121% 114% 258% 69% 44%


Overall return = 85.35%
No bubble return = 39.24%
New bubble probability per reel = 1.56%
Return from bonus = 17.38%



That's looking a whole lot closer to correct. Column 3 looks inflated.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 11654
Thanks for this post from:
prozema
March 12th, 2019 at 12:20:56 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

If a single bubble on reel 3 is ever worth 500% rtp, I'm running cold.



Could be, a not insignifiant percentage of that percentage comes from 4OaK OM symbols and 5OaK OM. Almost all of it relies on nailing an OM symbol on your bubble, so there’s a ton of Variance there vulturing.
Vultures can't be choosers.
smurgerburger
smurgerburger
Joined: Aug 1, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 12th, 2019 at 1:23:48 PM permalink
One way of verifying this is to consider the frequency of Big Wins vs Massive Wins vs Huge Wins vs Spectacular Wins etc. for OM compared to say GE.

GE is heavily skewed toward Big Wins that at least for the vulture are commonplace. OM comparatively speaking generates a lot of Amazing and Spectacular wins that almost require multiple bubbles working together with something covering the middle. But of course these larger wins are offset by more dud sessions.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1156
  • Posts: 19487
Thanks for this post from:
kgb92
March 12th, 2019 at 7:16:50 PM permalink
I'm about to post some results in Bubble Burst mode, which do not have the huge advantages as in normal mode.

Also, I just uploaded a video of some play I did yesterday. Warning, boring video.



Direct: https://youtu.be/pU29EoVpPE8
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1156
  • Posts: 19487
Thanks for this post from:
prozemakgb92
March 12th, 2019 at 7:28:48 PM permalink
Here are the results for Bubble Burst mode. As expected, a guaranteed bubble is not worth as much, because the wins are halved compared to the total amount bet.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 75% 72% 149% 51% 34%
2 109% 121% 301% 74% 37%
3 109% 119% 297% 74% 36%
4 73% 69% 145% 49% 33%


Overall return = 85.26%
No guaranteed bubble return = 30.57%

I'm still double checking this, so don't take it to the bank.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 1042
Thanks for this post from:
tringlomaneMission146
March 12th, 2019 at 8:44:06 PM permalink
I guess as it turns out all I have to do is question the return on reel three and the game makes me a liar. I take it all back. Thank you variance gods.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1156
  • Posts: 19487
March 12th, 2019 at 9:12:05 PM permalink
Let me run this strategy up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

This is for Bubble Burst mode only. For a guaranteed bubble, count the number of points in the following table, by the bubble's position on the NEXT spin.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 1 1 2 0 0
2 2 2 2 1 0
3 2 2 2 1 0
4 1 2 2 0 0


With two or more points, bet. It should be noted that playing reel 2 row 4 is negative for the next spin, but it more than made up for on the next two spins, when it will be in rows 2 and 3. Thoughts?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 2552
March 12th, 2019 at 9:36:03 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me run this strategy up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes.

This is for Bubble Burst mode only. For a guaranteed bubble, count the number of points in the following table, by the bubble's position on the NEXT spin.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 1 1 2 0 0
2 2 2 2 1 0
3 2 2 2 1 0
4 1 2 2 0 0


With two or more points, bet. It should be noted that playing reel 2 row 4 is negative for the next spin, but it more than made up for on the next two spins, when it will be in rows 2 and 3. Thoughts?



That seems to fall inline with how alot of vultures have been playing it since it came out. Not sure why reel 1 row 4 would only have a 1 value though.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
kuma
kuma
Joined: Feb 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
March 12th, 2019 at 9:53:13 PM permalink
I have only been playing Reels 1 and 4 if bubbles line up in the same row at the same time (assuming no other bubbles on Reels 2 and 3). It looks like here you are suggesting a bubble on Reel 4 doesn’t necessarily have to be on the same row as one on Reel 1, which is interesting.
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 1042
March 12th, 2019 at 10:15:13 PM permalink
Let me make an attempt at a simple strategy, for dummies (like me)... Any bubble in the first three columns is a "go" and you've got a positive game (although notability, not maximized)... Maybe on column 4 on non-bubble boost mode depending on your personal RTP requirements...

PS: I just learned something about bubble boost vs non bubble boost.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen

  • Jump to: