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Mission146
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Mission146 
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September 1st, 2017 at 10:14:02 AM permalink
Any numbers on what percentage of an actual Major League Player's shots go over in BP?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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September 1st, 2017 at 10:38:06 AM permalink
I found this discussion about how common home runs are in high school. It's more extreme than I thought. Only a minority of high school players would have any hope in the contest, perhaps barring a perfectly placed shot down the 309 line. Only a minority hit home runs on smaller, high school fields. If you hit more than 5, seems like you have a good chance of playing in college.

http://community.hsbaseballweb.com/topic/what-of-high-school-baseball-players-can-hit-home-runs

People's instincts are really out of whack on these things. I think when you see extreme outliers on tv a lot, you start to forget how extreme they are.

This is why RS and Rome's think a girl could beat up Floyd Mayweather if she knows Karate.
Mission146
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Mission146 
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September 1st, 2017 at 11:30:33 AM permalink
Great link!

That's what I'm saying, I think you have so many people enter the thing that have positively no hope of doing it that it ends p very likely that the person selected never has a chance. It seems like an easy task until you start putting bat to ball. I played a little ball and I don't think my best (read: hardest) hit ever traveled 300 in the air. Of course, I was a contact hitter, by which I mean that I struck out (or walked) a ton and was mostly used for my glove and arm. I sucked at batting.
Vultures can't be choosers.
DRich
DRich
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September 1st, 2017 at 11:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I believe so, I think I remember reading some.

Again, the reason I agree with ONM (and he may have different reasons for his opinion) is that there is no mechanism aside from tier status by which a player may earn five Picks. To me, that's what makes it unfair. If you're talking about earned v. given drawing entries, provided drawing entries can reasonably be, "Earned," then there at least exists a mechanism by which a player can, "Catch up."

Think about it, $125,000 coin-in to get the tier status in a slot box. Slots/VK only, looking at 88%-92% barring any advantageous machines (such as must-hits) and the know-how to identify them. Expected loss $10,000-$12,500 just to get the same number of Picks as the higher tiers to theoretically have a chance to win. I can't figure out how that's fair.



I still don't understand why you think that makes it unfair. The players that did achieve the higher tier status also had a $10-$12k expected loss. Would it be better if they only allowed the high tier players in the contest, would that make it fair? The way I see it is that everybody still has a chance to win on the weekly prizes and it is still theoretically possible for them to win the whole season (very unlikely).
BobDancer
BobDancer
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Thanks for this post from:
BTLWI
September 1st, 2017 at 12:28:49 PM permalink
Part of the skill of successful gambling at promotions is picking the promotions that work best for you. It sounds like Icon and Executive Producer are very expensive to earn at that casino. In Vegas at the M Resort, for now anyway, you can earn them playing games with positive EV. Personally, I believe Marquee Rewards Icon status has considerable value.

Every promotion gives one set of people an advantage over others. Sometimes high coin-in gives you benefits --- and obviously that hurts the nickel-quarter player. Sometimes everybody gets the same number of entries --- and that hurts the players who are able and willing to put in a high volume of coin-in. (I generally avoid this latter type of promotion.)

If Icon and Executive Producer get free cruises and lower tier levels donít, do you consider that unfair? If these same tier levels can cash in their points on a 2-for-1 basis at restaurants and lower tiers canít, do you consider that unfair? At many properties, tiers have real value. Often those benefits are yawn-worthy, but sometimes they are something you want. This particular time, they higher tiers got extra entries the lower tiers didnít. To me this isnít unfair. Itís merely one of the perks of the tier.

One thing is certain. Many players who belong to the class of people who have smaller-than-average chances will complain that the promotion is unfair. If I played $200,000 coin-in for a drawing weekly, and seemed to ďalways win,Ē players who didnít have the bankroll and knowledge to play that way would think itís unfair. And some would complain to management. (And savvy players guard against this by not winning all the time. If they win, they take a month or so off before they try to win again. If the GMs best way to solve a problem is to kick me out, clearly Iím doing something wrong.)

If you think this promotion is unfair, then simply donít play! Save your money and energy for those promotions where you have a better chance.

Complaining about it here wonít do you any good, unless just plain venting gives you positive EV. If you make the same argument to the GM of the property, sometimes it gets things changed. If you do it a lot to the same GM, sometimes you will be kicked out as a trouble-maker.

But demanding the club removes the benefits of tier level so people who just signed up yesterday can get the same benefits as a customer who plays a considerable amount is simply an argument you are not likely to win.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 1st, 2017 at 1:14:54 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Well, "Forty days," assumes this has been promoted since August 1st. I don't know if it has or not, maybe ONM does.

Perhaps this has only been promoted the last few days.

Okay, if you achieve the tier status in Week 3, then you may have been effectively unable to win the first two weeks and are, as such, at a pretty significant disadvantage for the overall prizes.

I actually don't have a problem with your 3k/day idea. I'd be fine with giving the high tiers all five entries free and the lower tiers would have to get one entry per $500 or $1,000 coin in. It's only $100 coin now, but they're maxed out at four entries. Make it five entries and $500 or $1,000 coin-in per entry, and I've got no problem with this.

The promotion summations and rules do not go up until the month they start within. It has been a mess this year and with little dignity. The worst promotions have not had any rules online, and they brought the most disappointment. There were two nearly identical promotions that were ran completely different, a total scandal. The list goes on and on.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 1st, 2017 at 1:32:03 PM permalink
There are supposed to be federal rules regarding sweepstakes and contests, if they're not followed, they're not only unfair, they can be considered illegal lotteries. This promotion I don't think passes the sniff test as far as I'm concerned, probably illegal breaking some FTC rules I'd guess. Things are more complicated than opinions of fairness or unfairness, I cannot say exactly what the rules are, because I do not know them and there are many. Usually companies are fearful of the federal government and make sure they're compliant, maybe the state of Ohio shields the casino from federal action, I do not know.
Looks like sh!t just got imaginary!
MaxPen
MaxPen
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September 1st, 2017 at 6:41:30 PM permalink
Anyone who cries about the unfairness of this promotion probably supports a universal basic income.
Mission146
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Mission146 
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September 1st, 2017 at 9:13:07 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I still don't understand why you think that makes it unfair. The players that did achieve the higher tier status also had a $10-$12k expected loss. Would it be better if they only allowed the high tier players in the contest, would that make it fair? The way I see it is that everybody still has a chance to win on the weekly prizes and it is still theoretically possible for them to win the whole season (very unlikely).



They had a 10k-12k expected loss over a period of six months, and as BobDancer points out, they may have gotten their tiers at +EV (which could theoretically apply to other players, too, of course).

My point is, you saw the math back on page 1, if you have 1,000 people enter the contest (assuming ATS Picks) who all get five chances, then all of the players with only four picks have odds of over 1 in 100 million of their picks even mattering for an individual week, much less over the entire promotion.

I think it's different than a drawing in which you give some free entries to higher tiers, but then everyone else has the opportunity to earn some entries. Even if you toss the higher tiers 1,000 free entries apiece, and there are a thousand such people, an individual entry from someone else is still at something like 1 in a million to win. To me, that's a lot farther from, "Effectively impossible," than getting to only pick four winning teams whereas 1,000 other people get to pick five.

It's not like each entry equals five picks, each entry equals one pick. Some people are capped at five while others are effectively capped at four. If you had 1,000 people who got to call five coin flips, but I get to call four, the four I call are not even going to matter because of the high probability of six or more of the 1,000 with five picks getting all five right.

Depending on the number of entries, the promotion, in effect, IS only for the higher tier players, they just don't say that.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146 
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September 1st, 2017 at 9:26:05 PM permalink
Quote: BobDancer

Part of the skill of successful gambling at promotions is picking the promotions that work best for you. It sounds like Icon and Executive Producer are very expensive to earn at that casino. In Vegas at the M Resort, for now anyway, you can earn them playing games with positive EV. Personally, I believe Marquee Rewards Icon status has considerable value.



I agree with you, but I'm not complaining from an AP perspective. As an AP, I wouldn't play this promotion (the only way to earn entries are slots/VK) unless I just happened to earn them in the course and scope of APing slots. Of course, I would not be APing slots at that casino to begin with.

I just don't like how lower-tier players are compelled to earn entries like it's actually going to matter. Again, this isn't like a drawing where every entry has a chance. The higher tiers get to pick five teams while the lower ones get to pick a maximum of four. Four effectively cannot beat five if there are enough people with five entries.

With a standard drawing, a person with one entry could conceivably get called as opposed to a person with 1,000 or even 10,000 entries. I don't have a problem with that. I have a problem with compelling people to play a promotion when (depending on the number of people who use all five entries) it is effectively impossible to win for a single week, much less the whole thing.

Quote:

Every promotion gives one set of people an advantage over others. Sometimes high coin-in gives you benefits --- and obviously that hurts the nickel-quarter player. Sometimes everybody gets the same number of entries --- and that hurts the players who are able and willing to put in a high volume of coin-in. (I generally avoid this latter type of promotion.)



I agree with that, I'm talking about reasonably possible v. effectively impossible. Like I said, give the higher tiers all five entries free and make the lower tiers earn each entry with $500 or even $1,000 coin-in per entry, and I'd be just fine with that.

Hell, at $1,000 coin in per entry, the player would be only 40k coin in from the second highest tier just by earning the necessary coin-in for the promotion every week to be allowed five Picks.

Quote:

If Icon and Executive Producer get free cruises and lower tier levels donít, do you consider that unfair? If these same tier levels can cash in their points on a 2-for-1 basis at restaurants and lower tiers canít, do you consider that unfair? At many properties, tiers have real value. Often those benefits are yawn-worthy, but sometimes they are something you want. This particular time, they higher tiers got extra entries the lower tiers didnít. To me this isnít unfair. Itís merely one of the perks of the tier.



I have a ton of respect for you, but I think your first question is a strawman question. We're not talking about cruises or other tier benefits, we're talking about a promotion such that everyone is essentially marketed to as having a chance of winning, but the people who don't understand math might not realize there is a reasonably high probability that they effectively have no chance.

The other perks are also readily quantifiable. Here is a point, here is how many dollars it takes to get a point, here is a finite period of time, get this many points in this finite period of time and you will get this tier status, when you get this tier status we will give you this thing and that thing. There's really nothing even close to deceptive about the concept of tier status.

Quote:

One thing is certain. Many players who belong to the class of people who have smaller-than-average chances will complain that the promotion is unfair. If I played $200,000 coin-in for a drawing weekly, and seemed to ďalways win,Ē players who didnít have the bankroll and knowledge to play that way would think itís unfair. And some would complain to management. (And savvy players guard against this by not winning all the time. If they win, they take a month or so off before they try to win again. If the GMs best way to solve a problem is to kick me out, clearly Iím doing something wrong.)



I agree with you, I don't really think we differ too much on this. I'm not saying to put the lower tiers on the same plane as the higher tiers, I'm just saying not to market a promotion as though anyone can win when they probably can't.

Quote:

If you think this promotion is unfair, then simply donít play! Save your money and energy for those promotions where you have a better chance.

Complaining about it here wonít do you any good, unless just plain venting gives you positive EV. If you make the same argument to the GM of the property, sometimes it gets things changed. If you do it a lot to the same GM, sometimes you will be kicked out as a trouble-maker.



I've never been there in my life, it's a slotbox. Unless I hear something about seriously disproportionate initial coin-in to FP offers, I have no reason to ever go there.

Quote:

But demanding the club removes the benefits of tier level so people who just signed up yesterday can get the same benefits as a customer who plays a considerable amount is simply an argument you are not likely to win.



When did I demand that? I say give the top two tiers all of their Picks free, just give the lower tiers the opportunity to conceivably earn the same number of picks. It's not a drawing, it's picking the most NFL winners. If someone is allowed to select five games and you can only select four, then if enough people get to select five games, it is effectively impossible for the player who only gets four to even conceive of winning.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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