rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
• Posts: 1066
August 14th, 2017 at 6:08:28 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I don't do slots, but if it runs at 85% to fund the jackpot, what does it run at over the long term, including the day that it pays that jackpot?
Do you really play that machine in the expectation of 85% return ignoring that jackpot, or do you pay it on the hope that the jackpot is included in your potential return?

The jackpot is included in the 85% return. Which means in between jackpots, you are playing at something less than 85%.

The way they set up a progressive is to determine how much they want to feed the progressive (so let's say \$0.03 per dollar bet), so then they would set the slot machine to return \$0.82 cents per dollar with the jackpot paying at the reset amount. (\$10 million for Megabucks). That way they guarantee themselves an 85% return, regardless of how big the progressive gets.

Of course, for Megabucks, this is all muddied by the fact that it's an annuity paid out over 26 years, and so present value calcs have to happen as well.
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
• Posts: 375
August 14th, 2017 at 7:01:59 AM permalink
Think of each dollar put in as being divided up.

\$1 in

\$.15 to house
\$.05 to progressive
\$.80 to base game payback
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 3287
August 14th, 2017 at 7:06:53 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I don't do slots, but if it runs at 85% to fund the jackpot, what does it run at over the long term, including the day that it pays that jackpot?

Here are the annual holds in Clark County (Las Vegas area), using a July-June year (e.g. the 2017 number is July 2016-June 2017):
YearCoin InHouse %
201760,010,00013.07
201661,140,00012.46
201561,110,00011.84
201461,970,00012.04
201367,300,00011.66
201293,710,00012.84
201158,280,00011.86
201054,220,00011.52
200967,760,00011.23
200888,310,00012.36
200783,070,00011.97
200692,790,00011.32
200584,530,00012.56
200457,270,0009.9
200385,860,00011.19

As you can see, the percentage the house keeps is around 11.8% from year to year,
Indu
Joined: Aug 3, 2017
• Posts: 25
August 16th, 2017 at 5:24:01 PM permalink
Thanks for the information.
Indu
Joined: Aug 3, 2017
• Posts: 25
September 23rd, 2017 at 9:41:57 PM permalink
(Link removed by Mod. No advertising other sites and it was the worst advice I've ever seen.)
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Sep 24, 2017
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
• Posts: 164
September 24th, 2017 at 4:38:06 AM permalink
This person is just trying to plug their website. Just a spammer.
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5748
September 24th, 2017 at 3:57:38 PM permalink
Man when I read the thread title, I thought it was "how to win a slot machine". I'd like to win a slot machine.

Of course there are ways to beat slots and there are people who see the advantages at the progressives and play with a large enough bankroll to overcome variance and have a +EV experience.

Non-progressives? Not possible.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
razmaspaz
Joined: Jan 12, 2017
• Posts: 48
September 26th, 2017 at 11:55:22 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

No. June's report here. The Win% represents the casino's win amount / total coin in.

Apologies, as I know this is mostly off topic, but since the link is posted here...

I'm surprised to find that the win % on table games is double that of slots. Clark county shows a steady 7% win, but games like 21 & craps which have much lower HE are way more profitable per dollar of action than the slots. How is that possible? Are people really so atrocious at these games? I guess VP would get folded into "slots" in this report, but still, 14% on BJ? I thought even the hold on a 6/5 game was closer to 3-4%.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 10309
September 27th, 2017 at 5:26:26 AM permalink
In my experience, yeah, people in general are that far off from optimal strategy.

This site has changed my whole viewpoint. I see so many strategy errors, including a few i don't make any more (thanks, Mike!). Even more on carnival games than blackjack, but plenty there. And not subtle ones.

Also some horrendous sidebets are on most bj tables these days. They would get folded into that report.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013