Mission146
Mission146
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August 5th, 2019 at 3:49:36 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

Yes, but if you are not playing for cash (tournament like this example), the most likely event is to be knocked out of the tournament. Whereas folding keeps your stack, and keeps you in the game while many others get knocked out (making you last longer, and getting better prizes).

Also, even though this is hypothetical, if everyone ahead of you went all in, there is a good chance that they all have good hands (very little chance of a bluff after maybe the first spot), so there are at least 7 very strong hands (possibly another AA). For a whole table to go all in, there would be maybe one bluff, followed by all very strong hands, or all very strong hands. I can't see how in a tournament it would ever be worth calling.

I have never seen 9 players all go all in, but for that to happen, everyone would have to be very confident with their hands (meaning you are going against many strong hands, possibly another AA).



Isn't this really one where it depends on the size of the tournament? If it's a one table, 'Tournament," with the Top Three getting paid, then yes, insta-fold. If it's the Main Event, then weighing the potential costs and benefits, I like the advantage that having a relatively big stack gives me early in the tournament and feel like that advantage outweighs the high probability of being immediately knocked out of the tournament.

Of course, much of that is because I very much expect to get knocked out without cashing if I fold, anyway.

The big stack would give me the ability to weather the storm of blind increases and play conservatively, at times, while using my stack to attempt to aggressively push other players off of their blinds and into folds at other times.

I agree with your position that they all likely have good hands, except maybe the first to shove. My counter to that position is that, barring another AA, I likely have the best hand.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Gandler
Gandler
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August 5th, 2019 at 4:06:34 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Isn't this really one where it depends on the size of the tournament? If it's a one table, 'Tournament," with the Top Three getting paid, then yes, insta-fold. If it's the Main Event, then weighing the potential costs and benefits, I like the advantage that having a relatively big stack gives me early in the tournament and feel like that advantage outweighs the high probability of being immediately knocked out of the tournament.

Of course, much of that is because I very much expect to get knocked out without cashing if I fold, anyway.

The big stack would give me the ability to weather the storm of blind increases and play conservatively, at times, while using my stack to attempt to aggressively push other players off of their blinds and into folds at other times.

I agree with your position that they all likely have good hands, except maybe the first to shove. My counter to that position is that, barring another AA, I likely have the best hand.



AA is always the best starting hand for Hold Em. But, still the most likely event is to lose, especially going against 8 hands (at least 7 of which are also very high value hands, not far behind AA, and possibly another AA).

I don't think we are going to agree. In tournaments I think the best answer is to be conservative in the scenario. If I was last to act, I would fold without giving it a second though. Yes, it sucks folding good hands, but that is sometimes what it takes to stay in.
"Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.” -Thomas Paine
Gandler
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Mission146
August 5th, 2019 at 4:17:12 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Isn't this really one where it depends on the size of the tournament? If it's a one table, 'Tournament," with the Top Three getting paid, then yes, insta-fold. If it's the Main Event, then weighing the potential costs and benefits, I like the advantage that having a relatively big stack gives me early in the tournament and feel like that advantage outweighs the high probability of being immediately knocked out of the tournament.

Of course, much of that is because I very much expect to get knocked out without cashing if I fold, anyway.

The big stack would give me the ability to weather the storm of blind increases and play conservatively, at times, while using my stack to attempt to aggressively push other players off of their blinds and into folds at other times.

I agree with your position that they all likely have good hands, except maybe the first to shove. My counter to that position is that, barring another AA, I likely have the best hand.





https://ibb.co/MVfGzq0

I am not sure if the image is displaying properly, but that link shows one very real possibility.

I use
https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/calculator/

Its a good way to calculate different possibilities.
"Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.” -Thomas Paine
Mission146
Mission146
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gordonm888
August 5th, 2019 at 4:45:30 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler

AA is always the best starting hand for Hold Em. But, still the most likely event is to lose, especially going against 8 hands (at least 7 of which are also very high value hands, not far behind AA, and possibly another AA).

I don't think we are going to agree. In tournaments I think the best answer is to be conservative in the scenario. If I was last to act, I would fold without giving it a second though. Yes, it sucks folding good hands, but that is sometimes what it takes to stay in.



I'm afraid your first sentence is incorrect, using this:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/calculator/

Do the following hands:

Hand 1: Aces
Hand 2: Aces
Hand 3: 5h6h
Hand 4: 10sJs
Hand 5: JcQc
Hand 6: 6d7d
Hand 7: 3s4s
Hand 8: QdJd
Hand 9: 9h9s
Hand 10: KsKc

In this scenario, every single hand has a greater probability to win than two the two hands of Aces combined, so Aces are far from the best hand in this scenario. In fact, KK, 99 and 5h6h (!?) all have a better probability than either of the two hands of aces do individually of winning OR tying. This remains basically true even if you eliminate the 3s4s hand entirely! That's true mostly because it improves the probability of a straight for most of the other hands.

I even found a scenario where AA doesn't have the highest probability of winning even absent another AA hand, though both of the other two aces have to be somewhere. I don't feel like typing it out, but it looks pretty easy to replicate if you want to call me on it and I will type it out.

Oh, hell, let's type it out...it's probably one of the most conceivable ways it could happen anyway:

Hand 1: AcAd
Hand 2: 5h6h
Hand 3: 10sJs
Hand 4: JcQc
Hand 5: 10hJh
Hand 6: AsQs
Hand 7: QdJd
Hand 8: 9h9s
Hand 9: AhQh
Hand 10: KsKc

KK and 5h6h both have it better than AA in this scenario. Let's call 5h6h the bluff hand and the rest of this at least becomes theoretically possible, but in a different order, of course. The key is no other kings are out AND there are few low cards (just the Ace) cutting off potential straights for 5h6h. 5h6h would be even better if they weren't being punished by the pair of nines! The two J-10 hands cannot win, they can only tie.

The pair of aces cannot turn into a straight, the queens and jacks are all out, so it's impossible. Interestingly enough, things could actually be worse for the aces because I inadvertently left the aces the most cards that could result in a flush! The ace of hearts to be in the pair would be worse for the aces.

Like I said, it would depend on the size of the tournament and how I felt folding would impact my probability to win or cash. There's no way I would fold it in the Main Event, I'd be looking at that kind of stack as my best chance to make it to the money.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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August 5th, 2019 at 4:47:10 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler



https://ibb.co/MVfGzq0

I am not sure if the image is displaying properly, but that link shows one very real possibility.

I use
https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/calculator/

Its a good way to calculate different possibilities.



Nicely done! I think my win probabilities were higher, but my tie probabilities were WAY lower on the ones I did.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Gandler
Gandler
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August 5th, 2019 at 4:49:45 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm afraid your first sentence is incorrect, using this:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/calculator/

Do the following hands:

Hand 1: Aces
Hand 2: Aces
Hand 3: 5h6h
Hand 4: 10sJs
Hand 5: JcQc
Hand 6: 6d7d
Hand 7: 3s4s
Hand 8: QdJd
Hand 9: 9h9s
Hand 10: KsKc

In this scenario, every single hand has a greater probability to win than two the two hands of Aces combined, so Aces are far from the best hand in this scenario. In fact, KK, 99 and 5h6h (!?) all have a better probability than either of the two hands of aces do individually of winning OR tying. This remains basically true even if you eliminate the 3s4s hand entirely! That's true mostly because it improves the probability of a straight for most of the other hands.

I even found a scenario where AA doesn't have the highest probability of winning even absent another AA hand, though both of the other two aces have to be somewhere. I don't feel like typing it out, but it looks pretty easy to replicate if you want to call me on it and I will type it out.

Oh, hell, let's type it out...it's probably one of the most conceivable ways it could happen anyway:

Hand 1: AcAd
Hand 2: 5h6h
Hand 3: 10sJs
Hand 4: JcQc
Hand 5: 10hJh
Hand 6: AsQs
Hand 7: QdJd
Hand 8: 9h9s
Hand 9: AhQh
Hand 10: KsKc

KK and 5h6h both have it better than AA in this scenario. Let's call 5h6h the bluff hand and the rest of this at least becomes theoretically possible, but in a different order, of course. The key is no other kings are out AND there are few low cards (just the Ace) cutting off potential straights for 5h6h. 5h6h would be even better if they weren't being punished by the pair of nines! The two J-10 hands cannot win, they can only tie.

The pair of aces cannot turn into a straight, the queens and jacks are all out, so it's impossible. Interestingly enough, things could actually be worse for the aces because I inadvertently left the aces the most cards that could result in a flush! The ace of hearts to be in the pair would be worse for the aces.

Like I said, it would depend on the size of the tournament and how I felt folding would impact my probability to win or cash. There's no way I would fold it in the Main Event, I'd be looking at that kind of stack as my best chance to make it to the money.



Let me rephrase, not knowing any other hand at the table, AA is the best starting hand. But, I agree, that is a great tool for measuring different possibilities, which is why folding with AA is also not always a terrible choice if you have an idea of what other hands may be out there (and in this scenario, it would mostly be strong hands).
"Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.” -Thomas Paine
Mission146
Mission146
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August 5th, 2019 at 5:12:12 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler



Let me rephrase, not knowing any other hand at the table, AA is the best starting hand. But, I agree, that is a great tool for measuring different possibilities, which is why folding with AA is also not always a terrible choice if you have an idea of what other hands may be out there (and in this scenario, it would mostly be strong hands).



Fascinating either way.

I would suggest that poker is largely about knowing one's abilities; I know that my abilities are very limited, particularly compared to who I would be facing in the Main Event. If I had a seat at the table, it would be because I won it for free somehow. Dead in the water. Take the number 1, divide it by the number of entrants, and my probability of cashing (much less winning) is substantially less than that going in. My chances are too infinitesimal to be worth guessing a probability for.

However, busting out an entire table with the first hand (or splitting with one other hand) is part of that probability and greatly increases my overall probability, in my opinion. If I fold in that situation, I'm screwed anyway. I'm going to lose and I'm going to fail to cash. If I win in this scenario, I've got a chance. I've got an automatic advantage over at least some of the other players at future tables.

AA is the only hand that truly concerns me. Even if all of the aces were out (but not another AA) I think I'm giving myself the best chance by shoving.

I don't think we automatically disagree with one another. I would probably agree that for some exceptionally skilled players, they give themselves a better chance to win the tournament (or cash) by folding and living to fight another day. I'm just saying I'm not one of those players.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Gandler
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August 5th, 2019 at 5:25:43 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Fascinating either way.

I would suggest that poker is largely about knowing one's abilities; I know that my abilities are very limited, particularly compared to who I would be facing in the Main Event. If I had a seat at the table, it would be because I won it for free somehow. Dead in the water. Take the number 1, divide it by the number of entrants, and my probability of cashing (much less winning) is substantially less than that going in. My chances are too infinitesimal to be worth guessing a probability for.

However, busting out an entire table with the first hand (or splitting with one other hand) is part of that probability and greatly increases my overall probability, in my opinion. If I fold in that situation, I'm screwed anyway. I'm going to lose and I'm going to fail to cash. If I win in this scenario, I've got a chance. I've got an automatic advantage over at least some of the other players at future tables.

AA is the only hand that truly concerns me. Even if all of the aces were out (but not another AA) I think I'm giving myself the best chance by shoving.

I don't think we automatically disagree with one another. I would probably agree that for some exceptionally skilled players, they give themselves a better chance to win the tournament (or cash) by folding and living to fight another day. I'm just saying I'm not one of those players.



I don't disagree, actually that is pretty close to what I said in my first reply post. I personally would fold (and would advise others to do so). However, it could be argued that for a riskier player, there could be justification for shoving and going for the payout or going bust. I personally would not, and I would not advise it, but I do understand where you are coming from, especially if you are talking cash games.

Everyone has a play style, and to each their own. But, as a matter of personal play, and giving advice to the OP, I still would have to insist on folding in this situation. But, you are making solid defenses for your strategy so I can respect that, at the end of the day it is all about having fun (most likely you are going to lose eventually anyway in a tournament, there will almost always be better players, and even if you are a great player, you can very easily have some bad beats at any point, or just draw dead all night), so if shoving with a good hand is what is best for you, I can respect that.
"Whatever is my right as a man is also the right of another; and it becomes my duty to guarantee as well as to possess.” -Thomas Paine
RS
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August 5th, 2019 at 11:47:15 PM permalink
Wouldn’t suited connectors be getting good enough pot odds to make a call if there are like 6-7+ before you? (I’m assuming cash game.)
01000101 01110000 01110011 01110100 01100101 01101001 01101110 00100000 01100100 01101001 01100100 01101110 00100111 01110100 00100000 01101011 01101001 01101100 01101100 00100000 01101000 01101001 01101101 01110011 01100101 01101100 01100110 00101110
AxelWolf
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August 6th, 2019 at 12:56:54 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Wouldn’t suited connectors be getting good enough pot odds to make a call if there are like 6-7+ before you? (I’m assuming cash game.)

of course, depending on the other players hands, 6 7 suited could be sitting with like a 22%+ chance to win.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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