Mega Millions Jackpot Over 1B

I'm still recovering from the assault on my advice and character in the the Powerball thread. It's not that I can't take an insult, but when it comes from someone you respect, it hurts, a lot.

However, I can't ignore the current Mega Millions drawing tomorrow (Jan 10, 2023), with a jackpot currently at $1.1 billion.

I'm well overdue to update my Lottery Ticket Sales Calculator. If I put $1.1 billion into it, I get an estimate of 272.79 million tickets sold. I'm quite sure that's too high. By comparison, after recently adjusting the Powerball formula, that gives 151.65 million.

Here is the data for the ten largest Mega Millions jackpots to date.

Date	Jackpot*	Ticket sales*,**
12/30/2022	$685	62
1/15/2021	$750	114
1/3/2023	$785	71
7/26/2022	$830	166
1/19/2021	$865	130
1/6/2023	$940	102
10/19/2018	$1,000	280
1/22/2021	$1,000	184
7/29/2022	$1,028	352
10/23/2018	$1,537	370

* In millions
** Ticket sales are number of tickets sold (as opposed to in dollars)

Note how there have been two jackpots of exactly one billion, where one had 184 million in tickets sold and the other 280. I'm curious about the reason for the disparity.

Here is my primary Mega Millions page. As you can see, the probability of winning is 1 in 302,575,350.

Note the relatively low ticket sales of 102 million for the 1/6/23 drawing, which had a closing jackpot of $940M. Perhaps there is still fatigue from the recent $2B Powerball jackpot.

Let's roughly estimate ticket sales of 110 million for tomorrow. That gives us a probability of somebody winning tomorrow of 30.5%.

No particular question, but I welcome all comments.

The question for the poll is are you in on the drawing?

I seem to remember picking 6 numbers from 49 numbers for jackpots over $15 million, with 2nd prize at $100K (30 years ago). What's second & third prize in the current game?

Rules
The rules were changed on October 7, 2015 to make the jackpot harder to hit, and thus grow larger jackpots. The previous jackpot probability was 1 in 175.2 million. It is now 1 in 292.2 million. The full rules are as follows:

The cost of a ticket is $2. The player may also pay an extra $1 to enable the Power Play multiplier, except in California.
The player shall pick five distinct numbers from 1 to 69, as well as one "Power Ball" from 1 to 26.
Every Saturday and Wednesday, at 10:59 PM eastern time, the lottery shall draw five white balls numbered 1 to 69 and one red Power Ball from 1 to 26.
5 numbers without the powerball pays $1 million.
4 numbers with the powerball pays $10,000.
3 numbers with the powerball pays $100, as does 4 numbers without the powerball.
If the player invokes the Power Play option, then any prizes other than the jackpot will be multiplied by at least 2. The multiplier for the $1,000,000 prize is always 2.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/powerball/
I'm sorry, I haven't bought a lottery ticket in so long I only pay attention to advertisements for "Pays $5,000 a week for life."

The advertised jackpot amounts are paid as a 30-year annuity, with the first payment payable immediately at 1.5051435% of the total amount payable. Future payments will go up by 5% per year, compounded annually.
In lieu of the annuity, the player may opt for a lump sum, which will be about 61% of face value.

If the JP was $100 million, they pay out $1.5 million the first year, then $6.5 million the 2nd year, then $11.5 million the 3rd year, then $16.5 million the 4th year, and it keeps going up $5 million a year each year? This is some bogus payout, better get it in bitcoin, lol.
If 2nd place paid $2 million, they'd pay $30K in year 1, $80K in year 2, $130K in year 3, $180K in year 4, etc? Is that right?

Oh, there's a difference between Powerball and Megamillions, and the drawing for the latter is tomorrow and not Wednesday?
https://wizardofodds.com/games/lottery/mega-millions/

The cost of a ticket is $2.
The player shall pick five distinct numbers from 1 to 70, as well as one "Power Ball" from 1 to 25.
Every Tuesday and Friday, at 11:00 PM eastern time, the lottery shall draw five white balls numbered 1 to 70 and one red Power Ball from 1 to 25.
The player shall win according to how many of his picks match the ball draw, as shown in the table below.
5 numbers without the powerball pays $1 million.
4 numbers with the powerball pays $10,000.
4 numbers without the powerball pays $500.
3 numbers with the powerball pays $100.
The player may also pay an extra $1 to enable the Megaplier multiplier, except in California. If the player invokes the Megaplier option, then any prizes other than the jackpot will be multiplied by 2 to 5,

Quote: Wizard

Note how there have been two jackpots of exactly one billion, where one had 184 million in tickets sold and the other 280. I'm curious about the reason for the disparity.

My guess would be COVID. In January, 2021, not very many people had received the vaccine, and people were going out with much less frequency than today (and certainly less than on the other $1B data point in 2018).

As I stated in a previous thread, I have $4 in our office pool (which thankfully only happens when the jackpot gets near $1B) because I don't want to be the only one at work come Wednesday morning! :)

Quote: Joeman

My guess would be COVID. In January, 2021, not very many people had received the vaccine, and people were going out with much less frequency than today (and certainly less than on the other $1B data point in 2018).
link to original post

Good point!

Quote: Wizard

I'm still recovering from the assault on my advice and character in the the Powerball thread. It's not that I can't take an insult, but when it comes from someone you respect, it hurts, a lot.

However, I can't ignore the current Mega Millions drawing tomorrow (Jan 10, 2023), with a jackpot currently at $1.1 billion.

I'm well overdue to update my Lottery Ticket Sales Calculator. If I put $1.1 billion into it, I get an estimate of 272.79 million tickets sold. I'm quite sure that's too high. By comparison, after recently adjusting the Powerball formula, that gives 151.65 million.

Here is the data for the ten largest Mega Millions jackpots to date.

Date	Jackpot*	Ticket sales*,**
12/30/2022	$685	62
1/15/2021	$750	114
1/3/2023	$785	71
7/26/2022	$830	166
1/19/2021	$865	130
1/6/2023	$940	102
10/19/2018	$1,000	280
1/22/2021	$1,000	184
7/29/2022	$1,028	352
10/23/2018	$1,537	370

* In millions
** Ticket sales are number of tickets sold (as opposed to in dollars)

Note how there have been two jackpots of exactly one billion, where one had 184 million in tickets sold and the other 280. I'm curious about the reason for the disparity.

Here is my primary Mega Millions page. As you can see, the probability of winning is 1 in 302,575,350.

Note the relatively low ticket sales of 102 million for the 1/6/23 drawing, which had a closing jackpot of $940M. Perhaps there is still fatigue from the recent $2B Powerball jackpot.

Let's roughly estimate ticket sales of 110 million for tomorrow. That gives us a probability of somebody winning tomorrow of 30.5%.

No particular question, but I welcome all comments.

The question for the poll is are you in on the drawing?
link to original post

Could be fatique.
MegaMillions has differentiated itself from Powerball in that it holds *3* drawings a week.

Also, in some states, you can get 2 tickets for $3. That 'Just the jackpot' ticket is only good for the top prize.
I dont think anyone has won with it yet.
but it's a better bang for the buck than the normal $2 ticket with prizes all the way down to just the MegaBall.

I'm in for this one. I'm not a lottery guy but I make exceptions when the jackpots get over a billion or so.

Better bang for the buck yes,but I certainly would not be wanting to hold a just the jackpot ticket with 5 numbers and wrong megaball that pays zilch. That would be my luck lol

Quote: 100xOdds

MegaMillions has differentiated itself from Powerball in that it holds *3* drawings a week.

Actually, it's Powerball that is now three days a week. Megamillions is still twice.

I still hold that people pay attention to the cash value and are buying fewer tickets because the annuitized amount is inflated due to higher interest rates.

For the first time in my life, I have put money into a lottery - this MegaMillions round/drawing. I have a friend who created a lottery pool, with all the payout money going on a pro rata basis to all the investorss in the event of a win in the MegaMillions drawing. He asked me to participate and $10 seemed like the polite minimum.

When friendships and relationships are involved, doing the mathematically optimal thing isn't necessarily the right/smart thing to do. (Example: think of money decisions within a marriage.) The return on my $10 investment will involve non-monetary benefits.

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: 100xOdds

MegaMillions has differentiated itself from Powerball in that it holds *3* drawings a week.

Actually, it's Powerball that is now three days a week. Megamillions is still twice.

I still hold that people pay attention to the cash value and are buying fewer tickets because the annualized amount is inflated due to higher interest rates.
link to original post

whoops.. thx.

and people buying lotto tix pay attention to the cause of the lump sum value?

$1,100,000,000
EST. CASH $568,700,000

during times of low interest rates, lump sum used to be 70% of annuity value.
Now it's 50%.
Don't think majority lotto tix buyers pay that close of attention or factors that info into buying or not.

All they see is $1.1B and the surrounding hype.
but yeah, if tix sales are slowing even when it hits Billion$ threshold, then i have no idea why.

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: 100xOdds

MegaMillions has differentiated itself from Powerball in that it holds *3* drawings a week.

Actually, it's Powerball that is now three days a week. Megamillions is still twice.

I still hold that people pay attention to the cash value and are buying fewer tickets because the annualized amount is inflated due to higher interest rates.
link to original post

whoops.. thx.

and people buying lotto tix pay attention to the cause of the lump sum value?

$1,100,000,000
EST. CASH $568,700,000

during times of low interest rates, lump sum used to be 70% of annuity value.
Now it's 50%.
Don't think majority lotto tix buyers pay that close of attention or factors that info into buying or not.

All they see is $1.1B and the surrounding hype.
but yeah, if tix sales are slowing even when it hits Billion$ threshold, then i have no idea why.
link to original post

Lottery fatigue. A 300 million jackpot used to be newsworthy.

Quote: billryan

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: 100xOdds

MegaMillions has differentiated itself from Powerball in that it holds *3* drawings a week.

Actually, it's Powerball that is now three days a week. Megamillions is still twice.

I still hold that people pay attention to the cash value and are buying fewer tickets because the annualized amount is inflated due to higher interest rates.
link to original post

whoops.. thx.

and people buying lotto tix pay attention to the cause of the lump sum value?

$1,100,000,000
EST. CASH $568,700,000

during times of low interest rates, lump sum used to be 70% of annuity value.
Now it's 50%.
Don't think majority lotto tix buyers pay that close of attention or factors that info into buying or not.

All they see is $1.1B and the surrounding hype.
but yeah, if tix sales are slowing even when it hits Billion$ threshold, then i have no idea why.
link to original post

Lottery fatigue. A 300 million jackpot used to be newsworthy.
link to original post

And, we just had one of the largest jackpots a month or so ago.

I bought two Mega millions tickets yesterday. While I was there, I also bought two Powerball tickets. I hit the Powerball number, so now I've already won back $4 of the $8 I spent. Suck on that, card counters.

Based on the numbers seleceted last night, I am shocked that nobody won the jackpots.

7-13-14-15-18-9

Generally, when all the numbers are less than 31 it seems like someone wins since so many people use birthdays to pick their numbers.

Quote: DRich

Based on the numbers seleceted last night, I am shocked that nobody won the jackpots.

7-13-14-15-18-9

Generally, when all the numbers are less than 31 it seems like someone wins since so many people use birthdays to pick their numbers.
link to original post

Birthdays are exactly what my wife and I do and we didn't get a single number....LOL....

19 tickets matched the 5 base numbers but missed the MegaBall. There are 25 Megaballs, so very roughly, 75% of the ticket numbers were covered last night. I also commented to a friend that I suspected someone won because of birthday numbers being played.

Quote: DRich

Based on the numbers seleceted last night, I am shocked that nobody won the jackpots.

7-13-14-15-18-9

Generally, when all the numbers are less than 31 it seems like someone wins since so many people use birthdays to pick their numbers.
link to original post

They missed a month, though. Lots of people do month/day, so that might have something to do with it. Only two months hit.

Quote: Wizard

Let's roughly estimate ticket sales (in number of tickets) of 110 million for tomorrow (1/10/23).
link to original post

The actual sales were 144 million tickets sold.

However, it's still a challenge to estimate ticket sales with jackpots over about 600 million.

Here are ticket sales for all jackpots over 600M. Both jackpot size and tickets sold are in millions.

Date	Jackpot	Tickets sold
10/23/2018	$1,537	370
1/13/2023	$1,350	173
1/10/2023	$1,100	144
7/29/2022	$1,028	352
10/19/2018	$1,000	280
1/22/2021	$1,000	184
1/6/2023	$940	102
1/19/2021	$865	130
7/26/2022	$830	166
1/3/2023	$785	71
1/15/2021	$750	114
12/30/2022	$685	62
10/16/2018	$667	105
7/22/2022	$660	86
1/12/2021	$625	86

Note how a jackpot of 1.028 billion had 352 million tickets sold, compared to only 144 million for an even bigger jackpot of 1.1 billion. Bigger jackpot, but ticket sales were down 59%. I don't think we can blame Covid for this one. I suspect it is jackpot fatigue over the recent 2B Powerball jackpot.

No particular question. Just making observations.

I updated my Lottery Ticket Sales calculator with a new formula for Mega Millions. I would expect sales to be a little less, as it is based on going back to 8/3/17. It seems to me demand for lottery tickets, given the same jackpot size, is going down with time.

Quote: Wizard

I updated my Lottery Ticket Sales calculator with a new formula for Mega Millions. I would expect sales to be a little less, as it is based on going back to 8/3/17. It seems to me demand for lottery tickets, given the same jackpot size, is going down with time.
link to original post

I would hope that they permanently lost some players when they reduced the starting amount of the jackpot and got rid of the automatic increases in the early stages for missed jackpots. I'm sure that is true of some amount of players greater than zero, anyway.