The never-ending horse thread

I just checked the site. It offered 2 free races per day. $6/day. $65/month.

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because of the rules of this forum I cannot post who this guy is or where he posted this
but he is a guy I respect for his skills as a capper
he posted his picks (see image) for Mahoning Valley today
the 1st race has already gone off - too late for that one
after the card is finished I will report how he did (his R.O.I.) based on $2.00 win bets for the top choice and $1.00 exacta box for the top 3 or top 2 if one is scratched
if the top horse is scratched I will report on the R.O.I. for the 2nd choice

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not a good day at all for my man
he won 3 win bets with very short prices and 3 exactas with very short prices

R.O.I. = negative 21%

His longest M/L odds pick (5/1 #3 in Race 8) got bet hard and crushed the field.

I did catch the 4th race live. Two horse close finish with big bump down the lane and an inquiry. Resulted in no change. If you watch the replay, the #7 looks absolutely massive running next to the small #2.
https://www.hollywoodmahoningvalley.com/racing/racing-video-and-replay

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in fairness to the guy - he makes the picks before he knows the real odds
also - betting the whole card and coming up a winner - very difficult to do
if he picked 2 or 3 races per day I think his skill would show up a lot more


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Quote: lilredrooster

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in fairness to the guy - he makes the picks before he knows the real odds
also - betting the whole card and coming up a winner - very difficult to do
if he picked 2 or 3 races per day I think his skill would show up a lot more
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I agree, thanks for posting the details.

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okay, let's give this guy another chance
here are his top picks for Oaklawn today
this will be the last time I post when he picks a whole card
he does something he calls "speed blast" picking just a few horses in short races
he did very well with that the 1st time I tracked it - if he posts that again I will re-post it here
I will report how he did based on win bets for his top picks

Quote: lilredrooster

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okay, let's give this guy another chance
here are his top picks for Oaklawn today
this will be the last time I post when he picks a whole card
he does something he calls "speed blast" picking just a few horses in short races
he did very well with that the 1st time I tracked it - if he posts that again I will re-post it here
I will report how he did based on win bets for his top picks

If someone is ‘forced’ to pick an entire card, I would assume the handicapper would admit some (most?) of his picks are -EV given the large ‘take’ the track does (is it 17%?)? The public has to be off a bit to allow there to be a real + EV situation. I have no idea what percentage of races that happens in, but it isn’t every race on the card.

Quote: SOOPOO

If someone is ‘forced’ to pick an entire card, I would assume the handicapper would admit some (most?) of his picks are -EV given the large ‘take’ the track does (is it 17%?)? The public has to be off a bit to allow there to be a real + EV situation. I have no idea what percentage of races that happens in, but it isn’t every race on the card.

that's true but this guy wouldn't admit that - for reasons you might guess
2 key things - first, he doesn't know the real odds
any capper worth his salt and he sees 2 strong contenders - and one is 6/5 and one is 7/2 is going to bet the 7/2 choice even if the 6/5 choice is a little stronger
since he doesn't know the actual odds he can't make a decision like that

the second thing is that most find a good bet when they believe they have some insight into a particular race - such as there's 3 speedsters who are likely to duel early and knock themselves out giving an opportunity to the closers who aren't out of gas to run them down

nobody is going to be able to have a good insight into each of 9 races on a card

still and all, it's kind of interesting - to me anyway - that's why I posted it
he makes complex calculations from software to make his picks
but the greatest software in the world isn't going to have a winning day picking 9 races on a single card too often
if the software was wired in to the live odds - which is what the Benter/Woods syndicate did in Hong Kong back in the day - then I wouldn't be so negative





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another bad card from the pickster
he hit only 2 short price faves

R.O.I. - negative 54%