Venthus
Venthus
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:00:05 PM permalink
So I'm over at Pauma in SoCal and noticed a game I never heard of, and doesn't generate any hits at WoV/WoO: Suit2Kill.

Can't paste a link properly since I'm on my phone, but based on the site and what I picked up from looking at the table, the dealer gets one card, you get four cards. You place an ante and up to a 3x wager. The object is to have a card that matches the suit of the dealer and is of a higher value. (ibngc.biz)

My gut instinct on this is to run for the hills-- seems like it'll have high-ish variance and you'll want to go in on hands based on a sliding scale of number of suits vs strength of suits.

Anybody else care to weigh in?

Edit: Not quite an ante; that bet's always live, regardless if you choose to raise. Makes it a bit kinder than I thought.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:03:33 PM permalink
I think something is Missing from your description. If the player really gets 4 cards and the dealer only gets 1, the player would have a huge edge I would think.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:06:25 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

I think something is Missing from your description. If the player really gets 4 cards and the dealer only gets 1, the player would have a huge edge I would think.



http://ibngc.biz/about.html
Hunterhill
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:11:13 PM permalink
That surprises me. That's why the. Math guys get the big bucks:-)
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Venthus
Venthus
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:12:05 PM permalink
Nope, it's 4-1. Somebody finally sat down to play. Lost 6 hands straight, but more or less broke even on the sides. Did not have a single hand that had a card that matched the suit and had a higher value.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:25:15 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

Nope, it's 4-1. Somebody finally sat down to play. Lost 6 hands straight, but more or less broke even on the sides. Did not have a single hand that had a card that matched the suit and had a higher value.



Well you have to think about it this way:

Your strongest starting hands (hands with 4 different suits) will only happen (39/51)*(26/50)*(13/49) = 10.55% of the time.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:45:05 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Venthus
Venthus
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January 12th, 2014 at 5:47:15 PM permalink
Oh, and just to mess things up more-- player and dealer draw from the same deck and there's a side bet that uses a second hand of 4, so there's a minimum of 9 cards drawn per hand. VERY beatable if you can persuade them to deal face up...
Venthus
Venthus
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January 13th, 2014 at 12:55:54 AM permalink
Just got back to a computer; here's some more details:

There's 4 spots for bets labelled Pairs Up, Aim, Fire, Reload; 5$ minimum for each spot.
Pairs Up is a sidebet on your own hand for four card poker hands pairs or better. (I believe the highest was AAAA, at 100:1. Second highest was a royal.)
Aim is the basic bet and placed before cards are dealt.
Fire is optional, 1x-3x your Aim bet, and is placed after cards are dealt (and your own cards are viewed).
Reload is placed after cards are dealt and is a combination of Aim/Pairs Up (no 'Fire') for an extra hand. Pay table is a little lower here, with AAAA being 65:1, I think. This is a single hand that is shared amongst the table.

Aim is required and pays 1:1. Aim is always resolved 'normally' regardless of other bets.
Fire is optional and pays 1:1.
Pairs Up has a pay table that I can't give details on, but includes pretty much every 4 card poker hand you'd expect.
Reload pays 1:1 on the main game, and a reduced Pairs Up pay table. It's possible to lose the Reload-MainGame and win the Reload-PairsUp.

After all bets are placed, the dealer opens their card, then the player hand. Pairs Up, Aim, and Fire bets are resolved. Player hands are collected. The Reload hand is opened. Reload bets are resolved.

-----

Out of the few hands that I saw, winning the main game is brutal, but recovering on the side bets are definitely possible. No idea if that was an anomaly though.

-----

(This is a response to a PM I received:)

There was only one person playing, so I can't say anything about the order, but I *think* it was:

4 cards to the player
4 cards for the "reload" sidebet.
4(?) cards for the dealer, of which only the top one was used
Remaining cards discharged.

The shuffler did not appear to be anything unusual; I want to say it resembled the typical pai gow shuffler, where the card input/output bays are more or less flush with the surface of the table, with the shuffling mechanism being a large rounded bit that sticks off the edge.
miplet
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January 14th, 2014 at 4:22:06 AM permalink
Yuck on the main game! 15% house edge (if my math is correct). Just a 37.7% win rate on an even money type is no good. Maybe the side bets have a player edge to offset this, but I would need a pay table to check.
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Venthus
Venthus
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January 14th, 2014 at 10:27:21 AM permalink
I'll try to get a copy of the paytable next time I'm over there.

Does your 15% house edge include the ability to raise to 3x your bet on a good hand ('Fire'), or is that just the base 'Aim' bet?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 14th, 2014 at 11:24:56 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

Yuck on the main game! 15% house edge (if my math is correct). Just a 37.7% win rate on an even money type is no good. Maybe the side bets have a player edge to offset this, but I would need a pay table to check.



What's the optimal main game strategy (other than the obvious "don't play")?
miplet
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January 14th, 2014 at 12:19:27 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

I'll try to get a copy of the paytable next time I'm over there.

Does your 15% house edge include the ability to raise to 3x your bet on a good hand ('Fire'), or is that just the base 'Aim' bet?


Yes it includes firing. You "fire" on 20.5% of the hands. 1.61 average bet. Element of Risk 9.31%.

OutcomeFiresPaysCombinationsReturn
WinsYes415364440.4729411765
WinsNo133655440.2589915966
LosesNo-16969144-0.536302521
LosesYes-41123668-0.3458823529
Total12994800-0.1502521008


Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What's the optimal main game strategy (other than the obvious "don't play")?


Count how may cards the dealer will have that you will beat. 24 is 0 ev. (I "Fire" in my pay tables.) "Fire" x3 if it is more than 24.


Winning cardsCombinationsBetWinning returnLosing Returnwin comboslose combos
03510-168001680
11401140-65801406580
23501700-1610070016100
370012100-31500210031500
4122514900-53900490053900
5196019800-84280980084280
62940117640-12348017640123480
74200129400-17220029400172200
85775146200-23100046200231000
97700169300-30030069300300300
108866188660-33690888660336908
11103481113828-382876113828382876
12117651141180-423540141180423540
13130721169936-457520169936457520
14142241199136-483616199136483616
15151761227640-500808227640500808
16158831254128-508256254128508256
17163001277100-505300277100505300
18163821294876-491460294876491460
19160841305596-466436305596466436
20153611307220-430108307220430108
21141681297528-382536297528382536
22124601274120-323960274120323960
23101921234416-254800234416254800
2492694889824-889824222456222456
2583204832000-765440208000191360
2673604765440-647680191360161920
2764044691632-537936172908134484
2854674612304-437360153076109340
2945644529424-34686413235686716
3037104445200-26712011130066780
3129204362080-1985609052049640
3222094282752-1413767068835344
3315924210144-955205253623880
3410844147424-607043685615176
35700498000-36400245009100
36455465520-21840163805460
37364453872-16016134684004
38286443472-11440108682860
39220434320-792085801980
40165426400-528066001320
41120419680-33604920840
4284414112-20163528504
435649632-11202408280
443546160-5601540140
452043600-24090060
461041840-8046020
4744752-161884
48141920480
Total9511320-1146381649019888092812

“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 14th, 2014 at 12:23:20 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Count how may cards the dealer will have that you will beat. 24 is 0 ev. (I "Fire" in my pay tables.) "Fire" x3 if it is more than 24.



Ok, now I feel stupid.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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January 14th, 2014 at 12:31:14 PM permalink
Pretty interesting game. Nice job by the inventor in coming up with something a little different.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 14th, 2014 at 12:55:53 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Pretty interesting game. Nice job by the inventor in coming up with something a little different.


ZCore13



I like the game idea, but it's gonna easily slaughter the sheep even if they play optimally.

Shameless modifying of miplet's data ahead. The real drawback is the fire bet would need offer a 7X raise to make the house edge "acceptable" (2.32%), or some other rule change.

Dealer always pushes on an Ace (a qualifying rule players will actually love!) and raising the fire bet to a 4X raise makes it 4.16% I think, and 5X would be 0.98% house edge.
Venthus
Venthus
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January 14th, 2014 at 1:14:41 PM permalink
Even knowing that it's optimal, the idea of putting down 11 units on a single hand (assuming you're like a normal player, also betting the sides) makes me kind of twitchy. I think most people would feel that way too, unless you're one of those people who actually takes advantage of 1000x odds craps... =P
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