AP Horseplayer?

My top pick for tomorrow is:

#9 - Peace Preserver - Monmouth 8 - 4/1 ML

It's my lock of the day!

FinsRule - I cut out of work early on Tuesday to hit Fairmount for Horse Hookey. Got there in time for the 3rd race, and promptly hit a nice exacta for $38, and a small winning place bet. Didn't win anything else until the 6th, when i hit a $10 win bet and a Superfecta! Unfortunately, it only paid about $8 since I was betting $0.10 per combination boxed between 5 horses. Won a couple small Place & Show bets in the 7th & 8th races too.

I managed to leave up for a change, including $11 spent on admission, program, and two beers. Not a bad start to the holiday.

Quote: FinsRule

My top pick for tomorrow is:

#9 - Peace Preserver - Monmouth 8 - 4/1 ML

It's my lock of the day!

I am a little confused. ?? (not a horse player here, so please forgive me) If you hit at a rate of 20% over an extended period of time, as you claim, then a 4-1 shot is a break even proposition, no? And quite frankly most horse that are 4-1 in the Morning line, are one of the top 2 or 3 favorites and end up going off at less than this, making it a long-term losing proposition, even if THIS horse wins. You should only be considering horses going off at significantly better than 4-1. I say significantly, because unlike sports-betting where your odds are set when you place the wager, horse racing odds change based on the pool, so you could bet the horse at 5-1 with 3 minutes to go only to have some big money at the last minute knock the actual odds down to 3-1, making it a long-term loser.

Quote: FinsRule

My top pick for tomorrow is:

#9 - Peace Preserver - Monmouth 8 - 4/1 ML

It's my lock of the day!

Hey, the lock of the day won!

Of course, he dropped to 8/5. But a win is a win.

I also advanced to Saturday's $50 contest.