My experience with dice control

Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.

Quote: scrooge

Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.

wall of text :(
maybe edit it so it's easier to read?

GTC videos, like this one...



...always remind me of those pseudoscience films popular back in the 70's. When you take a 50 year old guy with glasses, have him wear a lab coat and then film him in a room filled with scientific equipment (always with an oscilloscope in the background), then his theories on the Bermuda Triangle, E.S.P. and ancient aliens have the appearance of legitimacy.

I watch these seemingly legit GTC videos and find myself wanting to believe in the hardway set and the 3v but my brain just wont let me go there.

Quote: scrooge

Back in 2016, I had never played craps before, but I saw a video on youtube that was plausible, so I got out some dice from a board game and tried it. I got a very statistically significant result on the first try, pitching those rounded game dice a short distance across a smooth marble counter. Much later I realized that the shape of the dice makes a huge difference. Casino dice are perfectly square with sharp edges, because that makes the tumbling more chaotic. The pointy corners catch on the felt and provide a lot of torque because they're far from the center of gravity. Rounded dice are more likely to just keep rolling on the same axis. The combination of rounded dice with a smooth counter in my initial test minimized the torque on the dice and boosted my results. Later I got some square casino dice and a felt to pitch them on. The results were worse: barely statistically significant. Then I went and played in a real casino, where the conditions are even worse. The casino felt is much bouncier than the practice felt. I played about 50 hours of it in 2016 and made a little bit. But I'm not sure because back then my records only recorded the P/L for a visit to a casino, without reference to the specific games played. I went to a GTC seminar and saw some very statistically improbable rolls. I made several thousand betting the pass/come with odds with those guys. It seemed like there was something to it, but it was elusive. They teach you to stand at stick left if you're right handed or stick right if you're left handed, and hold the dice side by side using your thumb and two fingers, and pitch them at about a 45 degree angle with a backspin, so that they bounce before hitting the wall. I never got good results with that method, and I knew that if you're using the 3V set for 6/8, the 2V set for 4/10, and a set I invented for 5/9, then all you care about is keeping the dice on axis, not the relative pitch. So I decided to pitch them low with a lot of front spin and barely enough force to hit the flat diagonal thing at the bottom of the back wall, instead of the pyramids. The hope is that the front spin helps keep them on axis like a gyroscope, and they never hit the pyramids. I don't have enough data to make a conclusion as to whether this method works. If there is an edge to be had here, it's probably too small to bother unless the casino is offering a lot of comps for craps players as if they were all making 13% house edge prop bets. Perhaps some player tracking systems record only the average bet and not where on the craps table you make it. In that case betting pass line with odds could be profitable even for a random roller.

Paragraphs are your friends.

The rabbit hole of dice control is always a fun one to travel down. The more I learned about the game, the more I would flop back and forth - convincing myself it was possible, then the next week getting smacked in the mouth by math. I think there is always a part of the brain that wants to find a way to take gambling out of, well, gambling. If I can just throw the dice gingerly enough to stay "on axis" I can eliminate various dice combinations, and therefore change the statistical probabilities of outcomes. As the wizard says "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".

Do I think dice control is "possible"? Yes. Is throwing a perfect game of darts possible? Yes. It's a fine motor skill that takes YEARS of practice, and even the best have trouble doing it. But I believe the common understanding of dice control is overblown. You can't pick and choose what you throw. There's no "hey shooter, throw a 4!" so you magically place your die and throw the 4. It was best summed up as, and I'm paraphrasing - a way to take your rolls-to-7 ratio from 1:6 to 1:6.5 or greater. When I first learned of the 3V set, I told myself "I can do that" and went on one of my nicer roll streaks, first try. I have no doubt it was a mathematical coincidence, but it certainly put me in the "It's totally doable" camp until math very quickly smacked me in the mouth... again.

So is dice control possible? yes... maybe. And after years and years of developing a very fine motor skill, you might be able to gain .9 points on your rolls to 7 ratio.

As a side note - my brain is currently on the "it's bullpoopy" side of the tennis court. My friend and I will almost always bet against anybody displaying standard practice of dice setting and "control". It has worked out in our favor, so far...

I can tell the shooters making 7-11's and their points on the table don't give a crap about dice control, but they may attempt to look like they do.

Quote: Gialmere

GTC videos, like this one...

...always remind me of those pseudoscience films popular back in the 70's. When you take a 50 year old guy with glasses, have him wear a lab coat and then film him in a room filled with scientific equipment (always with an oscilloscope in the background), then his theories on the Bermuda Triangle, E.S.P. and ancient aliens have the appearance of legitimacy.

I watch these seemingly legit GTC videos and find myself wanting to believe in the hardway set and the 3v but my brain just wont let me go there.

You literally sound like one of the most narrow minded people ever. 50 year old man, with glasses, knick knack paddy whack, ruff, ruff, ruff, ruff, *cough* garbage. You sound like someone pissed in your cheerios. Were you bullied in school or something? Your whole paragraph was nothing but absolute bullshit. Ancient aliens? …. seriously? You do realize that people actually implement dice control in real life and are very successful at it correct? How can you sit there and rip people a new asshole, saying that it's all bullshit when you're the one that's the bullshitter here? Especially when people are actually doing it. Do you say the same thing about other professional athletes as well? Like, do you walk up to a pro bowler that just bowled 3 strikes and say that they're full of shit and didn't just do that? What the hell is wrong with you? You don't have to account for math when you're able to throw consistently well. It's not about math you idiot, it's about mechanics. Do you think professional pitchers think about quantum mechanics when they're up on the mound? NO! They just let their profound muscle memory and experience guide them as they always have done. If you practice something enough to where you're able to consistently do an action over and over again, eventually it just becomes natural (or second nature). If you had half a brain you'd understand this. Maybe perhaps you were the one that was inside reading books while the dice controllers were outside playing sports? That might explain it....Were you sheltered as a kid or something? Did you ever get out and play baseball? Throw the football? I think there is seriously something wrong with you and people that think like you. You need to go see a psychiatrist or something? What other things have you called bullshit on that actually happened? I'd sure like to know. You sure are one helluva puzzle piece to understand in the very least, let me tell ya. Absolute lunacy. Bermuda triangle? ESP? Scientific equipment? ….. <<< lol.... fuck outta with that stupid shit bro. You're probably one of those types of people that end up getting punched in the face for how idiotic you are and then you finally grow up when you realize just how stupid you sound/act/etc...

Quote: 7evenOut

The rabbit hole of dice control is always a fun one to travel down. The more I learned about the game, the more I would flop back and forth - convincing myself it was possible, then the next week getting smacked in the mouth by math. I think there is always a part of the brain that wants to find a way to take gambling out of, well, gambling. If I can just throw the dice gingerly enough to stay "on axis" I can eliminate various dice combinations, and therefore change the statistical probabilities of outcomes. As the wizard says "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is".

Do I think dice control is "possible"? Yes. Is throwing a perfect game of darts possible? Yes. It's a fine motor skill that takes YEARS of practice, and even the best have trouble doing it. But I believe the common understanding of dice control is overblown. You can't pick and choose what you throw. There's no "hey shooter, throw a 4!" so you magically place your die and throw the 4. It was best summed up as, and I'm paraphrasing - a way to take your rolls-to-7 ratio from 1:6 to 1:6.5 or greater. When I first learned of the 3V set, I told myself "I can do that" and went on one of my nicer roll streaks, first try. I have no doubt it was a mathematical coincidence, but it certainly put me in the "It's totally doable" camp until math very quickly smacked me in the mouth... again.

So is dice control possible? yes... maybe. And after years and years of developing a very fine motor skill, you might be able to gain .9 points on your rolls to 7 ratio.

As a side note - my brain is currently on the "it's bullpoopy" side of the tennis court. My friend and I will almost always bet against anybody displaying standard practice of dice setting and "control". It has worked out in our favor, so far...

Just because you suck at throwing the dice doesn't mean everyone does. Oh, but keep being narrow minded though.

That escalated quickly.

Quote: waterandice

You literally sound like one of the most narrow minded people ever.... Absolute lunacy.

For that wall of personal insults, take 3 days suspension.
You've lurked here long enough to realise how unacceptable that was.

He edited in an obscenity while I was acting. So lets make it 6 days.

Quote: waterandice

Just because you suck at throwing the dice doesn't mean everyone does. Oh, but keep being narrow minded though.

Dice control is B.S. Get over it.

Waterandice is probably in that early stage of DI where they've mistaken a string of lucky variance for having achieved a gifted level of dice control. They feel empowered by their trainers and well-wishers.
The anger and vitriol of his tirade betrays his inexperience.

The people he attacks acknowledge the achievability of DI.

They just know that purveyors of DI training are teaching stuff that only leads students to waste a lot of time and expense learning a skill that the casinos are simply not worried about after decades of DI wannabees practicing them at their tables.

Waterandice still thinks his comrades at the training academies are reaping the rewards that their anecdotal and poorly-controlled tracking records proclaim they are capable. Any recent blockbuster wins only reinforces the sense that the golden fleece is there for the taking, with them being the chosen one.

It just requires way more skill than they are capable of.

I'm kind of in the same camp as 7evenOut... DI is theoretically possible, not feasible in practice, but can be an entertaining idea to explore. As long as you don't spend more than a few seconds setting and throwing the dice, it isn't going to hurt to give it a try. Just don't drink the kool-aide.

Quote: waterandice

You do realize that people actually implement dice control in real life and are very successful at it

To be fair....there has been no independently confirmed proof that this is true

Quote: waterandice

Especially when people are actually doing it.

See above.

Quote: waterandice

Do you say the same thing about other professional athletes as well? Like, do you walk up to a pro bowler that just bowled 3 strikes and say that they're full of shit and didn't just do that?

I can see that someone has bowled 3 strikes. How is anyone seeing dice control and able to differentiate it from random variance?

Quote: waterandice

You don't have to account for math when you're able to throw consistently well.

Wait...what?....throwing consistently well is dice control?? I thought dice control or influence was an ability to skew random outcomes into non random outcomes...ie, influence more or less of certain numbers. No math? Huh?

If dice control is simply performing a mechanical, consistent toss....then I agree THAT is very possible. I can do that. If that is going to turn into influencing dice results...again, I don't think that has ever been proven in any kind of controlled study or demonstration. Then, if it has been proven....can it be replicated? Million dollar question.

If I keep setting for a 5 but rolling a 9, I'm avoiding the 7, and I should be pressing the 9.

I do stand by my original post. It wasn't meant to be insulting although it isn't hard to see how a DI supporter could take it as such. As I said, I want to believe. As other's here have pointed out, however, until it can be demonstrated in a controlled environment and replicated by others elsewhere, the best you can do is render the scotch verdict of "not proven".

But perhaps the current ambiguity is for the best. Should the above conditions be met beyond all doubt then what's to stop the casinos from banning players as shooters and simply putting the dice in a birdcage?

In contrast to DI for craps, wheel clocking and ball steering in roulette seems to be on more solid ground. I read somewhere (maybe here) that many casinos were switching to wheels with shallow pockets and instructing their croupiers to spin them faster. This would at least show that casinos think it a possible threat. I post the video below not as proof of the technique but merely as evidence in its favor...

I used to see the deep pocket roulette wheels. Not so much anymore. They used to "clank" as the ball arrived. Now the ball skips along over numbers until it runs out of momentum.

Please let me know when and where you'll be in Vegas so I can bet the dark side when you're shooting on the pass line.

Remember, it's always better to be lucky than good.