AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 26th, 2012 at 1:21:29 PM permalink
Over the last four years I was at two tables where all six numbers hit. At the first table at Rio the fire bet shooter hit all six numbers in less than about fifteen minutes. it was just pass, pass, pass and I don't think he rolled an extra "number."

At the second table I was at it took about 25 minutes.

Whether or not it actually happened in "one hour" on Friday night, I don't know. The dealers were talking about it all weekend.

I don't think Caesars will sweat it. When I arrived early Saturday morning, about 2-AM I was at a table with two other players. Along comes this older, heavy man and his buddy and they pull two chairs from an empty blackjack table and sit down at the craps table. And the big cigar smoking guy says to the dealer, "this is supposed to be my table."

they call a floorman and all I could over hear were things like "no host will be here till 6-am" and "we weren't told about it." And the next thing I saw was a security card with a special chip fill with $25,000 chips.

Two lamers get thrown on the table... each says $500,000.

Mr. Cigar Smoker gets $800,000 in $25K chips and $200k in $5,000 chips and the sign on the table is changed from $25 minimum to RESERVED.

Me and the other player are told we can keep playing but when we left no new players would be allowed. The table belonged to Mr Cigar Smoker.

Unfortunately, Mr Cigar Smoker played along with me and the other guy... $10,000 plat bets but full odds. Passline plus two working come bets. ... and we cost him since we both didn't hit repeaters.

I left and the other guy left after I did.

The next morning I asked some of the dealers if they knew what happened to Mr Cigar Smoker? No one even heard about any big wins or even if such a player was there. Such is Caesars.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 26th, 2012 at 1:47:15 PM permalink
Unbelievable.

Didn't the casino (or players) realize that if they bet $1 straight up, and did a full parlay, the payout is $1,295? The casino should be thrilled to be able to get away with paying only $1,000!

---

Interestingly, that was the concept behind my original idea, Hit It Again.

I was told, among other things, A) Players would see right thru the shitty payments; B) Casinos don't like gimicks that pay a lot of money all at once, regardless of the edge.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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March 26th, 2012 at 2:13:17 PM permalink
It is amazing what some people will bet on. This is the same casino that offers "Beat the Dealer". The player couldn't parlay because the maximum bet on a number is $25 on the main casino floor. I guess they could go into the high limit room to do this, but that would be impractical.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 26th, 2012 at 2:22:38 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

The player couldn't parlay because the maximum bet on a number is $25 on the main casino floor.

Understood.

But doing the parlay math should have made it obvious how silly the casino was for pulling the bet.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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March 26th, 2012 at 2:26:11 PM permalink
Agreed. I'm surprised nobody has been interested in your side bet. Your website for it is very well done.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 26th, 2012 at 2:47:57 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

Agreed. I'm surprised nobody has been interested in your side bet.

I DO have interest in my Poker For Roulette idea. It's just that things progress v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y.


Quote: winmonkeyspit3

Your website for it is very well done.

Thanks. I do all the design, artwork and html myself.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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March 27th, 2012 at 1:47:54 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

What is the probability of TWO 6 point Fire Bets at the same table in 1 hour?

I'll give this one a shot.
First some data then a few assumptions.
The Firebet is about each shooter and there can be a different number of shooters per hour as also with the number of rolls per hour. So that forces one to deal with averages.
Firebet exact number probability
0 .593 939 393 939
1 .260 750 492 004
2 .101 275 355 549
3 .033 434 212 179
4 .008 798 178 440
5 .001 639 933 139
6 .000 162 434 749

~8 average number of points needed per shooter to hit the 6pt Firebet
5.06 (557/110) average number of rolls per point
40.7 average number of rolls needed to hit the 6pt Firebet
81.4 average number of rolls needed to hit 2, 6pt Firebets
102 average number of rolls per hour
20.6 rolls remain
8.5 (1671/196) average number of rolls per shooter
2.4 number of shooters not hitting the Firebet
4.4 shooters per hour needed on average.

The below table is a binomial and negative binomial distribution.
I think both ways can be used to answer the question.
The negative binomial distribution, I think, answers it better.
# of shootersexactly 2 (1 in)2 or moreon exact shooter
237,900,253.737,900,253.737,900,253.7
312,635,470.312,634,786.118,953,205.5
46,318,761.56,318,077.212,637,523.1
53,791,872.93,791,256.99,479,682.2
62,528,325.92,527,778.37,584,977.8
71,806,240.51,805,751.56,321,841.7
81,354,900.41,354,460.35,419,601.8
91,053,982.71,053,583.24,742,922.0
10843,323.1842,957.84,216,615.6
11690,103.7689,767.43,795,570.6
12575,179.9574,868.53,451,079.3


We see about a 1 in 5 million chance of that happening in one hour using 102 as the number of rolls per hour. (4.4 shooters)
In reality, I think that number would be lower, as the more players and more bets slows down the game from a roll per hour standpoint.
(I bet someone could set this up as a Markov Chain and get some very accurate numbers.)

The last column, on exact shooter, means that the 2nd Firebet hit would be on exactly that shooter.
It does not matter what shooter hit it the first time, just what shooter hit it the second time.

Example: Exactly 2 6pt Firebets hit by 4 shooters = 1 in 6,318,761.5
is about the same as the 2nd 6pt Firebet being hit by the 7th shooter

For the negative binomial distribution (the number of trials before N successes)
mean: 12,312.6
var: 75,788,194.7
sd: 8,705.6
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
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March 27th, 2012 at 4:59:23 PM permalink
Great Analysis!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson 
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 30th, 2012 at 3:03:18 AM permalink
chance of hitting the firebet is supposed to be about one in 65-hundred. You are more likely to hit the fire bet with a $5 bet than you are hitting a royal flush with a $5 bet (one in 629,740 to be dealt; one in 40,500 to draw).

why does the fire bet have such a bad wrap?

look, two guys hit it in an hour, and as guido showed us that's more likely than winning the old california lottery which was one in 14-million.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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March 30th, 2012 at 4:29:11 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

why does the fire bet have such a bad wrap?

I don't think it has a bad rap. It is very successful, and a great idea. ShuffleMaster just bought it for some ungodly-amount of money. It's bad reputation among people here is that it carries a 20-25% house edge. A royal flush may come less often but you'll lose less waiting for it.

That said, while I never play it, I'd love to be there when the fire bet hits twice in a row. I'll have made enough $$ already from pass/come+odds, and people will be happy.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

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