How to Test A Strategy

I'm a newbie table games junkie and also new to this site (though I already love it) so apologies if this has been gone over a million times, I tried searching the forums and Google and didn't really find what I was looking for.

I have an idea for a strategy in craps (not a system!) that seems simple and I am wondering what it does to the expected loss (I'm pretty sure nothing?) and just how deep of pockets you would need to withstand play for say, two standard deviations of probabilistic swings. Does anyone have any pointers for how to test this? I tried googling around and didn't find anything really...

The strategy is very simple but a bit hard to explain, on a 2x odds table basically start out with a 1 unit pass line bet, then play max odds, and put down a come bet that will cover your initial bet if the shooter sevens out (1.5 units), if the shooter now throws a point, place max odds, and another come but to cover all your previous wagers (7.5 units). Rinse, and repeat.

The big problem with this strategy is that if you are quickly wagering huge amounts of money and unless you had a gigantic bankroll would eventually end up unable to cover yourself, the shooter would seven out and you would go home penniless. Anyway, any thoughts or pointers to how I can get some statistics on this would be appreciated.

There is a third potential problem you didn't mention. Even if the shooter doesn't seven-out, and you had that gigantic bankroll, you'll hit the table maximum before you turn profits.

That is exactly where I was heading with my question and why I wanted to know where two or three standard deviations of play would land you on the covering bet. :) I think you are correct and you end up way above any table max but I'm an engineer so I am curious to see the numbers behind my supposition.

you don't really hedge with come bets and you find yourself with a bunch of points to make all waiting for the 7-out, which has a way of coming at the wrong time. To try and make the come bet be a more effective hedge the way you are planning, yes, I think the giant payroll is the problem there... plus the same problem will continue to happen.

Test it in the short run with the Wizard's game here, and in the long run by using Wincraps if you can spring for it. That's found at www.cloudcitysoftware.com/ . Best $20 I've spent in a while.

Quote: renniSaint

I have an idea for a strategy in craps (not a system!) that seems simple and I am wondering what it does to the expected loss (I'm pretty sure nothing?)

How do you add negative-expectation bets and get to zero? It doesn't work. So I'm 'pretty sure' you're wrong.

Quote: renniSaint

The strategy is very simple but a bit hard to explain, on a 2x odds table basically start out with a 1 unit pass line bet, then play max odds, and put down a come bet that will cover your initial bet if the shooter sevens out (1.5 units), if the shooter now throws a point, place max odds, and another come but to cover all your previous wagers (7.5 units). Rinse, and repeat.

You have a modified martingale. What happens if a crap (2/3/12) comes out after the original point is established? You just pile that on to your next Come bet on the next roll?

Quote: rennisaint

The big problem with this strategy is that if you are quickly wagering huge amounts of money and unless you had a gigantic bankroll would eventually end up unable to cover yourself, the shooter would seven out and you would go home penniless. Anyway, any thoughts or pointers to how I can get some statistics on this would be appreciated.

It isn't even bankroll - it's the ration between the table min/max. If one unit is $10 and the table max is $5,000, you don't need a lot of multiplications (and with the odds bet in play, you're going to see even bigger swings.) As soon as you reach/exceed that limit, you're hosed... Sorta.

In the end, a martingale shifts the swings of variance to include a lot of little, small wins and one or two giant freaking losses. The weighted average of these.. land you right back at the house edge for the plain-old pass-line+odds bet.

Isn't it ironic, don'tcha think?

Quote: PerpetualNewbie

How do you add negative-expectation bets and get to zero? It doesn't work. So I'm 'pretty sure' you're wrong.

I think you misunderstand my meaning; what I meant was that I'm pretty sure this strategy ends up not effecting the house edge and will end up with the exact same expected loss as a regular pass plus odds bet (i.e. it does nothing to the expected loss).

Quote: PerpetualNewbie

You have a modified martingale. What happens if a crap (2/3/12) comes out after the original point is established? You just pile that on to your next Come bet on the next roll?

Exactly.

Quote: PerpetualNewbie

It isn't even bankroll - it's the ration between the table min/max. If one unit is $10 and the table max is $5,000, you don't need a lot of multiplications (and with the odds bet in play, you're going to see even bigger swings.) As soon as you reach/exceed that limit, you're hosed... Sorta.

That is the big question, where do typical ratios land. 2 standard deviations of play, or 3?

Quote: PerpetualNewbie

How do you add negative-expectation bets and get to zero? It doesn't work. So I'm 'pretty sure' you're wrong.

Quote: rennaisaint

I have an idea for a strategy in craps (not a system!) that seems simple and I am wondering what it does to the expected loss (I'm pretty sure nothing?)

I'm pretty sure that the "nothing" in Renni's quote meant no change, and not no HE. So I think you two basically agree, then.

Quote: PerpetualNewbie

Isn't it ironic, don'tcha think?

A little too ironic, and yeah I really do think...

That'll teach me to get all high and mighty without learning how to read...

Thanks for the catch.

Buy WinCraps. If you're into craps, it's easily worth the 20 bones.

Your strategy sounds like it would be easy to program into the autorun feature, and WinCraps can then play it for as many rolls as you can stomach. I use it to test betting schemes all the time.

Quote: renniSaint

The strategy is very simple but a bit hard to explain, on a 2x odds table basically start out with a 1 unit pass line bet, then play max odds, and put down a come bet that will cover your initial bet if the shooter sevens out (1.5 units), if the shooter now throws a point, place max odds, and another come but to cover all your previous wagers (7.5 units). Rinse, and repeat.

The big problem with this strategy is that if you are quickly wagering huge amounts of money and unless you had a gigantic bankroll would eventually end up unable to cover yourself, the shooter would seven out and you would go home penniless. Anyway, any thoughts or pointers to how I can get some statistics on this would be appreciated.

I think this was covered without odds at this thread
SIMPLE CRAPS STRATEGY
It was an Alan Krigman idea and there is already a WinCraps auto-bet file for it. I have not looked at it for a while and think that odds can be added.

I second WinCraps for $20. Easy to program and use IMO

With some rudimentary math it seems like you would need to be at a $1 table with no max 2x odds and a $200k bankroll (or $2mil on a $10 table). This would allow you to survive a 17 throw run before the shooter sevens out. This would be 2 standard deviations of runs or 95% probability of survival. If you want to get that extra standard deviation you need to survive a 30 throw run and have a whopping $2bil bankroll (assuming you aren't putting your winnings back into your bankroll but also ignoring some losses because I'm lazy). So, unless you can negotiate your own table to set those rules and have a $200k bankroll I guess this isn't the best strategy :(.

I might have to try it out in WinCraps because I'm interested to see what it would look like (I'm guessing it would be a lot of little losses and some huge huge wins).

It would be a really fun way to play because you would be constantly vacillating between massive bets with tens of thousands of dollars on the table and tiny little one dollar pass line bets. Can you imagine seeing a guy playing a table with 200 yellow chips and then betting a white on the pass line. It would make for some fun entertainment.