Poll

9 votes (30%)
16 votes (53.33%)
5 votes (16.66%)

30 members have voted

DrEntropy
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
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July 27th, 2011 at 11:43:01 AM permalink
Quote: dwm

Sorry for the mulitple posts, my computer is not too swift. But my point hopefully will hit home..


It happens sometimes, an admin will fix it. But your point is certainly well taken!
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
bushman
bushman
Joined: Feb 17, 2010
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July 27th, 2011 at 11:53:02 AM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

It happens sometimes, an admin will fix it. But your point is certainly well taken!



True that. I hope you took it in the jesting manner it was intended. Your point is recognized, and probably a very good way to play. I just need more action, to my detriment.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
vert1276
vert1276
Joined: Apr 25, 2011
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July 27th, 2011 at 2:55:52 PM permalink
Quote: dwm

I hate to bring you fella craps players some bad news: It is impossible to have good results with multiple bets per roll whether place betting or come betting, the ole ugly is just too prevalent. Make one good bet(pass-odds is my favorite), design your betting scheme, and stick to it. If you play this game long enough, you will learn the futility of multiple bets, and that is how they get us with all the bets offered which is quite ingenious.



This is just not true......If it were, than making multiple bets on the "DON'T" side would be a for sure money maker! But its not.....We have all had are numbers picked off time after time when betting on the "don't come"!

Now an argument could be made that making more than one bet on a craps table is like playing more than one hand at a blackjack table and that you are just decreasing variance by making multiple bets. And that deceased variance in a negative expectation game is not wise! This I can buy into.....But has nothing to do with the "ole ugly".
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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July 27th, 2011 at 3:19:36 PM permalink
Just as casinos want to raise table limits they want people who choose to have "action" at all times rather than just the sporadic come-out rolls. That way the 'Seven' eats it way through bankrolls much faster.
Alan
Alan
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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July 27th, 2011 at 7:34:04 PM permalink
Why is the 7 so evil? It's actually a timing thing.... we don't love the hell out of the 7(or 11) on the come out? We should also hate the 2-3-12 when playing the 'right way'? Sure we hate it afterwards, but then again, I love the 7 when I have don't bets working, so I love the 7(sometimes); it shouldn't get a bad rap.
DrEntropy
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
  • Threads: 27
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July 28th, 2011 at 4:43:13 PM permalink
Quote: vert1276


Now an argument could be made that making more than one bet on a craps table is like playing more than one hand at a blackjack table and that you are just decreasing variance by making multiple bets.



This is a great point. You can also look at it the other way around. You can maintain your variance and bet slower and lose less in the long run! For example, suppose you are playing a game with a 1% house edge, 100 hands per hour, $10 bets. Your standard deviation after 1 hour is $100.00. Your mean loss is $10. But now consider a slower game, with say 45 hands per hour, and the same 1% house edge. IF you bet $15 at the slower game, your standard deviation is still about $100, but your average loss is $6.75.

This applies to craps as well, since the come bet (basically, neglecting correlations) just speeds up the game, and perhaps it is better to just increase your pass line (after hitting max odds) instead!
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
dwm
dwm
Joined: Aug 9, 2010
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July 28th, 2011 at 9:40:34 PM permalink
My personal results with active play the latest 5 years confirms to me that one good pass odds bet is my best chance. Have had good wins with the typical place betting that most play, BUT bigger losses. Losing one bet is sure easier to recover from than losing 4-6 bets. I too was an action junkie but my bankroll suffered and knew that changes had to be made. Instead of all those place bets, why not just bump the odds bet which is the best bet in the house.

Have been playing this odds betting scheme that I posted on another thread already with excellent results to date and now I actually EXPECT to win. Before with multiple betting, I went thru some bad losing spurts and it was getting more and more difficult to win.

Anyway back to the pass-odds, simply pressing the odds bet one unit after a losing shooter using this simple negative progression, starting at $20 odds and max of $50 odds, and after a point winner returning to $20 odds and starting anew. If lose the $50 bet which means that 7 straight shooters fail to make any points, then start anew. Have not lost the $50 odds bet as yet, have gotten to the $50 level a couple of times in many hrs of play and always luckily won it, but certainly it is very possible to have a string of 7 consecutive shooters fail to make a point. Typical day is about 6 hrs of play, playing several sessions per day, and in a -$200 to +$200 range per session and playing with a $600 day bankroll. My daily wins have been averaging in the $100 to $200 range and have not experienced the usual bad spurt yet which is a pleasant change. Will let you know future results..
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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July 28th, 2011 at 9:54:36 PM permalink
if youre gonna play just one point, why not instead play the dont?

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