Thread Rating:

coachbelly
coachbelly
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1231
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
October 10th, 2021 at 1:33:03 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

if as the Wiz claims the odds are such that such an event is impossible in the real world, that leaves only door number three.

Do you really want to go there?


Your existence is a far more unlikely event than 18 consecutive yos.

Here or there?...Which side of door #3 are you on?
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
  • Threads: 167
  • Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
October 10th, 2021 at 1:55:06 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Quote: AlanMendelson

MrV do you understand that making false statements about my health are damaging, even libelous to someone who posts using their real name?



Sorry, that dog won't hunt.

A: You're a public figure, with the enhanced burden that imposes.

B: More importantly I never claimed anything, I simply wondered whether that might be the reason.

OK, you emphatically deny that you imagined, hallucinated or misremembered: got it.

If you didn't imagine it, and if as the Wiz claims the odds are such that such an event is impossible in the real world, that leaves only door number three.

Do you really want to go there?
link to original post



I'm waiting for someone who was there to tell me that the dealers, the shooter, his buddy and I all miscounted.

Until that happens your math doesn't mean it didnt happen. It means perhaps you doubt it happened or its unbelievable. Well, it was quite unbelievable. And if I didnt see it I wouldn't believe it either.

By the way, Mr Attorney, what if I wondered on a public forum if you beat your wife, used escrow money, and paid kickbacks to judges?

Just "wondered."
MrV
MrV
  • Threads: 364
  • Posts: 8158
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 2:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

... your math doesn't mean it didnt happen



The math speaks LOUDLY: "• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000"

Hello, truly IMPOSSIBLE!

Get a grip, man.
"What, me worry?"
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12164
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 2:50:50 PM permalink
I tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4570
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
Thanked by
AxelWolf
October 10th, 2021 at 2:51:20 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
link to original post



I don’t believe you.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12164
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 2:55:12 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: rxwine

I tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
link to original post



I don’t believe you.
link to original post



Heh.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7471
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
October 10th, 2021 at 3:04:08 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
link to original post

You're just gullible :o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12164
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 3:04:17 PM permalink
…although there was that time, Elvis called me up to the stage, to take over for him, ‘cause he saw me on my YouTube channel, and I took over for him, and played his guitar behind my back and got 3 ovations of my finale’ of Heartbreak Hotel.

But that is pretty believable.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7471
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
October 10th, 2021 at 3:16:51 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

…although there was that time, Elvis called me up to the stage, to take over for him, ‘cause he saw me on my YouTube channel, and I took over for him, and played his guitar behind my back and got 3 ovations of my finale’ of Heartbreak Hotel.

But that is pretty believable.
link to original post

He used to do that a lot
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
MrV
MrV
  • Threads: 364
  • Posts: 8158
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 3:20:39 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

]He used to do that a lot



I wonder what the odds are that he did it eighteen times in a row?
"What, me worry?"
darkoz
darkoz
  • Threads: 296
  • Posts: 11418
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
October 10th, 2021 at 3:40:28 PM permalink
I thought the whole mathematical argument was that Craps and Roulette are independent events with absolutely no bearing on previous events.

It seems the argument here is after the 17th Yo, the dice should have known better than to roll an eleven again.

Collectively, 18Yo's is highly improbable but the throwing of an eleven isn't.

And each of the 18 throws would have been independent, correct?

At any rate, I can't speak for 18 Yo's but I do know I saw 32 reds in a row at roulette so if the prevailing argument is 32 reds in a row is impossible to have witnessed then I have to side with Alan because I know I witnessed it.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 7218
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
October 10th, 2021 at 3:43:07 PM permalink
The DarkOz, MDawg and AlanMendelson standing shoulder to shoulder stating definitively that statistically improbable events did in fact happen.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10939
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 3:50:00 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.

All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.

I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
link to original post



Too bored to do the math, but 22 players in a row has to be far more likely than 32 reds in a row at roulette.
MDawg
MDawg
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 7218
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
October 10th, 2021 at 3:53:25 PM permalink
Typo - I meant less improbable. The point of the post was to say that part of what I saw was more likely than what DarkOz saw, so why the fuss.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
October 10th, 2021 at 4:00:48 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Quote: Mission146

Strictly speaking, only someone who was there could absolutely declare that it didn’t happen.


What are you talking about "could"?

They certainly could, can, and they do just that...it happens all the time around here.

Quote: SOOPOO

18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN.


link to original post



Could definitively declare based on his own experience of the incident that is the subject matter of the claim, not that you didn’t know what I mean. A person can type anything.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
October 10th, 2021 at 4:04:35 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I thought the whole mathematical argument was that Craps and Roulette are independent events with absolutely no bearing on previous events.

It seems the argument here is after the 17th Yo, the dice should have known better than to roll an eleven again.

Collectively, 18Yo's is highly improbable but the throwing of an eleven isn't.

And each of the 18 throws would have been independent, correct?

At any rate, I can't speak for 18 Yo's but I do know I saw 32 reds in a row at roulette so if the prevailing argument is 32 reds in a row is impossible to have witnessed then I have to side with Alan because I know I witnessed it.
link to original post



The bigger problem, when arguing the claim from a purely mathematical standpoint, is that any sequence of eighteen rolls is pretty darn near, “Impossible,” it’s just that nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
coachbelly
coachbelly
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1231
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
October 10th, 2021 at 4:27:18 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

not that you didn’t know what I mean.


I think know what you mean.

When he writes "18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN" or "60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN"
Dr Feelgood doesn't know what he's talking about...he's just talking out his ass.

Is that what you mean?
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
October 10th, 2021 at 4:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Quote: Mission146

not that you didn’t know what I mean.


I think know what you mean.

When he writes "18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN" or "60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN"
Dr Feelgood doesn't know what he's talking about...he's just talking out his ass.

Is that what you mean?
link to original post



No, I mean that he’s offering an educated opinion based on the improbability of an event, the event’s description and the lack of corroborating evidence or account of any kind.

In other words, I mean that he doesn’t know in an empirical sense of the word.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
coachbelly
coachbelly
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1231
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
October 10th, 2021 at 4:39:02 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.



Naysayers would notice, question and browbeat the reporter over any "nearly impossible" sequence they post here.

It has more to do with the personalities involved than any math.

Nobody harassed the chick who reported hitting the same roulette number 8 times in a row.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12164
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 4:47:29 PM permalink
I think its interesting (or interesting to just me) that If i spun an rng that produced a unigue number 50 digits long, I am going to be the only person to ever see that unique number. No one is ever going to guess what that number was either. (assuming no funny business, no cheating)

So, seeing something extremely and impossibly unique is possible, ONCE. But likely, never again.

Am I right?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
darkoz
darkoz
  • Threads: 296
  • Posts: 11418
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
October 10th, 2021 at 4:48:36 PM permalink
An event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_R._Ginther

Perhaps the world imagined it.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
October 10th, 2021 at 4:53:44 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Quote: Mission146

nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.



Naysayers would notice, question and browbeat the reporter over any "nearly impossible" sequence they post here.

It has more to do with the personalities involved than any math.

Nobody harassed the chick who reported hitting the same roulette number 8 times in a row.
link to original post



No, they wouldn’t. If I went to the Craps Table, or anyone, and record an exact sequence of twenty, or so, results…that specific sequence would be, “ Nearly impossible,” by the same standard, but we know the dice must be rolled twenty times.

Anything is highly improbable…is my point; 18 Yos is just nearly impossible in a noteworthy way.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
coachbelly
coachbelly
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1231
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
October 10th, 2021 at 4:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

An event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.


Stop sweating the small stuff...math theorists are certain that their own existence is impossible.
MrV
MrV
  • Threads: 364
  • Posts: 8158
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 5:00:41 PM permalink
I'd group the 18 yo's in a row claim with the Infinite Monkey Theorem.

see: InfiniteMonkeyTheorem.
"What, me worry?"
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10939
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 5:17:00 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Quote: darkoz

An event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.


Stop sweating the small stuff...math theorists are certain that their own existence is impossible.
link to original post



For those who thought it was impossible to enjoy a CoachBelly post, the above post proves them wrong. I like it!
jpfromla
jpfromla
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 33
Joined: May 2, 2019
October 10th, 2021 at 6:08:42 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

I'd group the 18 yo's in a row claim with the Infinite Monkey Theorem.

see: InfiniteMonkeyTheorem.
link to original post



Or as David Letterman said…
An infinite number of monkeys, in front of a infinite number of typewriters…
the smell would be unbearable
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 152
Joined: Feb 28, 2014
October 10th, 2021 at 8:18:02 PM permalink
Wrap your brain around this.

Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.

Unique events happen all the time.
Son you ain’t paying attention I’m cutting you but you ain’t bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4570
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 10th, 2021 at 8:26:34 PM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Wrap your brain around this.

Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.

Unique events happen all the time.
link to original post



8.0658x10^67

Good point.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10939
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
October 10th, 2021 at 8:29:56 PM permalink
Quote: linksjunkie

Wrap your brain around this.

Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.

Unique events happen all the time.
link to original post



I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.

For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
  • Threads: 167
  • Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
October 10th, 2021 at 8:42:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: linksjunkie

Wrap your brain around this.

Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.

Unique events happen all the time.
link to original post



I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.

For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
link to original post



So a random shuffle means cards cant be shuffled in order???

Then how do you account for dealt royals in table games such as Mississippi Stud and Ultimate Texas Holdem... not to mention getting quad aces in order in Aces Bonus poker?

https://images.app.goo.gl/DLwA98dpYPQDKReq6

The photo is to illustrate the game.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4570
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 10th, 2021 at 9:18:20 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: linksjunkie

Wrap your brain around this.

Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.

Unique events happen all the time.
link to original post



I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.

For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
link to original post



Your disbelief at a shuffled but ordered deck of cards is unremarkable. But your lack of disbelief over the less likely occurrences you come across, including (to paraphrase coachbelly) your own existence, is truly remarkable.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
October 11th, 2021 at 2:20:14 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

An event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_R._Ginther

Perhaps the world imagined it.
link to original post


For an accurate figure, how many lifetime tickets did she buy?????
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
  • Jump to: