pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 52
May 18th, 2018 at 5:14:06 PM permalink
Arthurdent33, that special smirk is delicious. Taking down one's exposure is the best way to grow your rails. Doing so only one or two tosses before Red is doubly sweet.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 18
May 21st, 2018 at 6:29:05 AM permalink
Thanks for the wishes Sally. Actually, this thread is a little bit different but sorry if asking twice offended you. But if you will enjoy me asking a third time (perhaps I can change the order of the sentences to make it a bit different again), I would be happy to oblige.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 18
June 12th, 2018 at 6:03:12 AM permalink
I had my first chance to actually try this at the local "casino" on their bubble craps game.

$10 minimum game - and with the machines, they pay based on the actually payouts so it was easier to place the 5, 6 & 8 at $20 and a field bet of $10. With the first few sets of rolls, I ran out of time trying to get the 6 & 8 to $18 - the machine rolls every 30 seconds and my inexperience with using a machine for craps contributed to that.

After about 45 minutes of play, I was up $215 and cashed out with taking down my bet after two wins after the point was made. When I was up $100, I cleared my bets but placed a $10 bet on both the six and eight and let that play. I would have stayed longer but I had to meet up with some friends.

The guy next to me got creamed with the crazy way he was playing and kept on feeding $20s into the machine. Looking forward to returning and trying again. Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!
discflicker
discflicker
Joined: Jan 1, 2011
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 440
June 12th, 2018 at 6:37:04 AM permalink
Quote: arthurdent33

Looking forward to returning and trying again. Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!



Hey, beginner's luck can happen. Just look at Dennis Rodman... he did pretty well as a first-time negotiator of world peace! Beginner's luck is Lady Luck's way of getting you hooked.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 18
June 12th, 2018 at 6:42:20 AM permalink
Been hooked for years, just trying to walk away a winner
discflicker
discflicker
Joined: Jan 1, 2011
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 440
Thanks for this post from:
Romes
June 12th, 2018 at 7:28:04 AM permalink
Quote: arthurdent33

Been hooked for years, just trying to walk away a winner


Trust me on this one, OK? You will never win playing casino craps unless you're cheating or sitting on the other side of the table. There are no winning strategies. Vegas was not built on winners. If you're hooked, then try to quit. If you can't quit, get help. Don't throw your hard-earned money away trying to beat the game of craps.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5222
June 12th, 2018 at 7:37:42 AM permalink
Quote: arthurdent33

... Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!

I hope you take this in a mathematical way, not being rude or snide... but yes, it was just luck. 100%. Your system has a negative expected value. Hit and Run does NOT work because the game doesn't magically "reset" every time you come back up to it. ALL of the roles you see with bets all add up and overtime you will eventually hit a large enough sampling size that you will fall prey to the natural math of the game. There is no beating the math. You need a promotion, cheating, etc, etc, but the game of craps straight up is not something you will ever mathematically beat with a "system" such as the one you've described. Every single bet in your "system" has a house edge and a negative expectation. No mixture of all negative bets will yield a positive system.

You were asking for opinions on your system, and I'm simply just letting you know the math behind it. It's not even an opinion at that point, it's a mathematical certainty that once you get enough of a sampling size you will be down, 100%, mathematically guaranteed. The only question is how much...

Craps is fun. I've been known to play it rarely on occasion... just don't fool yourself in to thinking you're not playing a negative expectation game.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 18
June 12th, 2018 at 11:15:00 AM permalink
Thanks for the input Romes, I do not take it personally at all.

I have been toying with it here on the play for fun game and have been in the positive way more than the negative and decided to try it with real money on a bubble craps machine. Not really a way to make friends with the crew at a live table with so many times of taking my bets off and the place closest to me is only slots and virtual craps, BJ and baccarat.

I just took the odds I found here of average number of rolls after a point is made. If the average number of rolls per decision is 3+, and I exit after 2, doesn't that make a little bit of sense?

And I reserve the right to be stubborn AND not take critique personally as long as it doesn't get personal!

Trying to get back to give it another go. And I will gladly accept beginners luck each time I try it.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 18
June 12th, 2018 at 11:16:10 AM permalink
And I would say try it for yourself here and see what you come up with.

  • Jump to: