odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 7969
May 7th, 2018 at 12:03:21 PM permalink
you have to do weighted probability. You can't learn anything by looking at bet combinations and pondering "if this happens I lose this amount which is counterbalanced by this other event" ... yet not factor probabilities

and i will say one more time that you need do no math at all - it is an ironclad rule that combining bets with negative expectation cannot result in overall positive expectation. Give it up.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 13118
Thanks for this post from:
May 7th, 2018 at 12:13:36 PM permalink
Quote: homany

I just came up with this idea. Most probably it is not a good strategy but i cannot find the flaw. So far, it seems like a good plan. Please prove me wrong.
Let's say we wanna have a 8\$ don't pass bet to protect our bets playing iron crapper or iron cross strategy. To overcome the pitfall of come out roll, i have this arrangement in mind for the come out roll: beside 8\$ on dc, laying 32\$ on 10, betting 5\$ on hard 10 and betting 2\$ on 6+4 in sic bo. If 7 rolls we break even, if hard 10 rolls we earn 1\$ plus a free point. I don't consider 11 and the extra 2\$ loss by rolling it because in the long term 2 and 3 will cancel it out. If any other number rolls we take down lay and hard ways bet resulting 2\$ loss which can be easily made up by the next 2 rolls. The only bummer is rolling easy 10 in come out roll which has 1/18 odds or 5.5%. In this case we lose 32\$ but we win 12\$ resulting a 20\$ loss plus a point. All of my assumptions are based on that easy 10 not being hit in sic bo at come out roll in craps. It might hit with any point (exept 4) or even 11 or 2/3 of 7's which means an extra 12\$ win. Please enlighten me on this.
PS: we might leave the DC bet after the come out roll waiting for 7 out. Specially when 6 or 8 are not the points.

I am no expert.

It seems to me you might consider a combination of DC on craps along with Big on sic bo and/or any double on 6. With Big, the HE is a relatively low 2.72% and it would cover both 11 and 12 with any other number except trips, since DC is bar 12, at 1:1. With Double 6, it probably depends what paytable, but again you have the 12 covered, and 16 ways to win. There are 8:1, 10:1, and 11:1 odds according to WoO, in live play, though it sounds like you're playing online, so could be anything.

Not sure what proportions you might bet these. But the odds have to help with the 12 when it comes. Then you just have to avoid the 7 on the come-out, and 1/2 of the 7's would pay on the Big anyway (3rd die of 4-5-6).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018
• Posts: 12
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May 7th, 2018 at 3:24:50 PM permalink
i have already tried this approach but it fails in the long run.
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
• Posts: 3130
May 7th, 2018 at 4:07:03 PM permalink
I wish Sic Bo was still around in Vegas.

I've played it online and in home games with friends and I thought it was a pretty fun game.
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018
• Posts: 12
May 7th, 2018 at 6:38:07 PM permalink
Is there any particular reason on removing it in Vegas? It usually has terrible bets with high house edges which means more mony for the casino. I don't understand.
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 11933
May 7th, 2018 at 6:43:02 PM permalink
Does Bellagio still have the combo table of Pai Gow Poker/ Sic-Bo?

Horseshoe Hammond has a SB table. It was never open though the last time I was there.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018