ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
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May 5th, 2018 at 5:53:32 PM permalink
ill make it easy for you......thou shall never hedge.
get second you pig
homany
homany
Joined: Apr 19, 2018
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May 5th, 2018 at 6:16:49 PM permalink
Thanks. Waiting...
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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homany
May 5th, 2018 at 9:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

ill make it easy for you......thou shall never hedge.


On one game for sure.

But I could see how hedging bets between two different games that are determined by the same roll of the dice could have some possibilities.

I don’t think that’s the case here. But my point is that this situation is potentially quite a bit different than standard hedging on roulette or craps.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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homanyontariodealer
May 6th, 2018 at 2:59:58 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

On one game for sure.

But I could see how hedging bets between two different games that are determined by the same roll of the dice could have some possibilities.

I don’t think that’s the case here. But my point is that this situation is potentially quite a bit different than standard hedging on roulette or craps.

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
darkoz
darkoz
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homany
May 6th, 2018 at 5:09:48 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.



If only the rules of English applied to Math and two negatives made a positive :)
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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homany
May 6th, 2018 at 7:04:26 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

It doesn't matter a hoot. You are combining bets that all have a house edge. The EV on each bet is undefeatable and Total EV = EV on each added into one sum.


That's not what I am saying.

Hedging bets between two games with completely different rules, but are determined by the same exact dice roll, is a unique situation that is fundamentally different than hedging on the same game (like a Doey-Dont on craps).

I am not claiming it is +EV for this craps/sicbo love-child, but I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.

Quote: darkoz

If only the rules of English applied to Math and two negatives made a positive :)


That's a great quote for the back cover of your AP book.
homany
homany
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:10:11 AM permalink
I am encouragingly looking forward to hear about your hypothetical beneficial recommendation on the case I described.
darkoz
darkoz
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May 6th, 2018 at 7:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

That's not what I am saying.

Hedging bets between two games with completely different rules, but are determined by the same exact dice roll, is a unique situation that is fundamentally different than hedging on the same game (like a Doey-Dont on craps).

I am not claiming it is +EV for this craps/sicbo love-child, but I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.


That's a great quote for the back cover of your AP book.



I think the same mechanisms at work between two -ev games will always be in play

Take the Craps/Sicbo combinations. The median number in BOTH is 7 on two die

Seeing that in Craps is easy so lets just look at Sicbo

With a 7 rolled on the two Craps die there are only 6 possible outcomes in Sicbo:

7 + 1 = 8 = small
7 + 2 = 9 = small
7 + 3 = 10 = small
7 + 4 = 11 = large
7 + 5 = 12 = large
7 + 6 = 13 = large

Note that those outcomes split evenly between winning either the small or large bets in Sicbo. (A 6 or 8 on the Craps die results in winning 4-2 or 2-4 of the corresponding small/large sicbo bets

I.E. Both Sicbo and Craps revolve around similar principles to make them negative expectation and since they share that the combination of bets will not make a positive

My point is any combination of -ev games you create will most likely have the same drawback and will most likely have the same underlying mechanism for creating the negative expectation
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 6th, 2018 at 9:47:04 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I guarantee I could create hypothetical where that was the case.



Give it a whirl, maybe I can learn something. 'Cuz I don't think you can.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
homany
homany
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May 7th, 2018 at 8:53:27 AM permalink
I just came up with this idea. Most probably it is not a good strategy but i cannot find the flaw. So far, it seems like a good plan. Please prove me wrong.
Let's say we wanna have a 8$ don't pass bet to protect our bets playing iron crapper or iron cross strategy. To overcome the pitfall of come out roll, i have this arrangement in mind for the come out roll: beside 8$ on dc, laying 32$ on 10, betting 5$ on hard 10 and betting 2$ on 6+4 in sic bo. If 7 rolls we break even, if hard 10 rolls we earn 1$ plus a free point. I don't consider 11 and the extra 2$ loss by rolling it because in the long term 2 and 3 will cancel it out. If any other number rolls we take down lay and hard ways bet resulting 2$ loss which can be easily made up by the next 2 rolls. The only bummer is rolling easy 10 in come out roll which has 1/18 odds or 5.5%. In this case we lose 32$ but we win 12$ resulting a 20$ loss plus a point. All of my assumptions are based on that easy 10 not being hit in sic bo at come out roll in craps. It might hit with any point (exept 4) or even 11 or 2/3 of 7's which means an extra 12$ win. Please enlighten me on this.
PS: we might leave the DC bet after the come out roll waiting for 7 out. Specially when 6 or 8 are not the points.
Last edited by: homany on May 7, 2018

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