boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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March 12th, 2018 at 11:24:39 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Thank you for that. I have only been at a table 1 time when the 6th was lit. I told this story last month. I had $1 fire. I hedged for $280. The guy next to me said I was stupid for it. I was like whatever I don't care. He also made a big deal of me not taking odds.



I threw a 6 point fire back in 2010 at Casino Niagara. Paid for a trip to Maui. I didn't hedge the sixth point. Dealers got a 1K tip (put a $1 on for them). Also took all of my other bets down. I couldn't hedge the 6th point anyway because I had lost most of my chips for hedging the 5th point.

I feel like my math is wrong somewhere. I would expect the Vig to bring down the EV. My math IS wrong. It's because when you bet and "win" you lose the VIG.

That means that if you bet $500 to win $250 you pay the VIG of $13 and lose that VIG meaning that you only win $237 if the point does not hit.
This makes the EV less by the vig * the odds.

So for 5/9 you only get $427 if the point is not made and $472 if the point is made which sets the EV at $445 (less than $450).

You pay vig for losing variance.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Yoyomama
Yoyomama
Joined: Oct 11, 2010
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March 12th, 2018 at 3:48:28 PM permalink
Quote: klimate10

This is FOMO, a human weakness/fear that drives people into making bad decisions.

You want to be that guy who rolls all six numbers and not have a fire bet.



NO!! I DON'T want to be that guy! I only bet the fire bet when I roll.

I am a pass line full odds and come bet with full odds player. That's pretty much all I bet.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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  • Posts: 2268
March 12th, 2018 at 4:04:34 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

I feel like my math is wrong somewhere. I would expect the Vig to bring down the EV. My math IS wrong. It's because when you bet and "win" you lose the VIG.

omg
Quote: boymimbo

<snip>
You pay vig for losing variance.

bottom line is ALL craps players want to win
when they FEEL like they can win by betting a certain way, that makes them FEEL much better about winning or losing

I mean,
show me a craps player that likes to lose and I show you
a special quarter I found in my change purse.

It is all about having fun while winning!

fire bet is on it's way out
not many places have it as it used to be
just my observation
I feel
thank you for sharing
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Laymedown
Laymedown
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 264
March 26th, 2018 at 1:12:28 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.

His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.

He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.

I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!



People who choose to hedge a fire bet are just insecure about themselves.

Try this instead of hedging:
*when the 4th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 125.00
Invest up to 125 on some numbers in the meantime.

*when the 5th point is established you know you're about to win 1250
Invest up to 125 on some numbers in the meantime.

*when the 5th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 1250.00
Invest up to 1250 + 125 on some numbers in the meantime.

*when the 6th point is established you know you're about to win 5000
Invest up to 1250 +125 on some numbers in the meantime.

*when the 6th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 5000.00
Invest up to 5000 + 1250 + 125 on some numbers in the meantime until seven out.

Don't hedge
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Laymedown
March 26th, 2018 at 6:23:33 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

The founder of this web site would say no. NO HEDGING (unless it involves life changing money).



You're absolutely right.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
DJTeddyBear
March 26th, 2018 at 6:24:37 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I mean,
show me a craps player that likes to lose and I show you
a special quarter I found in my change purse.



I'm interested in the quarter.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 5606
March 26th, 2018 at 7:54:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm interested in the quarter.


Me too. Id pay two bits.
Voice of the Announcer: Meanwhile, at an abandoned gold mine, a sinister figure lurks. Snidley Whiplash: I love to lurk. It's so me
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 5606
March 26th, 2018 at 7:56:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm interested in the quarter.


Me too. Id pay two bits.
Voice of the Announcer: Meanwhile, at an abandoned gold mine, a sinister figure lurks. Snidley Whiplash: I love to lurk. It's so me

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