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Craps457
Craps457
Joined: Jan 29, 2018
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January 30th, 2018 at 3:00:31 PM permalink
Thank you Sally.

What I meant in regards to house edge is to avoid bets that have large house edges, i.e., prop bets, etc.

Do you have a program that you recommend for running simulations?
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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January 30th, 2018 at 4:06:55 PM permalink
I think the table was from WinCraps a freeware/donation program.

The thing that struck me was that there were five or six losing games before there was one winning game. Which would knock someone with my bankroll right out of the box.

And this was at the five dollar line bet level, not impossible to find but difficult.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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January 30th, 2018 at 9:04:01 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I think the table was from WinCraps a freeware/donation program.

yes, I use Wincraps most times for craps, not always.
Quote: FleaStiff

And this was at the five dollar line bet level, not impossible to find but difficult.

i agree
here is the $10 version.


These we done for come bets only, so the starting bankroll was very high to make sure survival of 100 rolls was set to happen always.

I also did not have code to show the largest drawdown,
but most times on a session net loss the drawdown was larger than the end result.

OP will really need to state what kind of bankroll he plays with.
And IF the point is 6 or 8 does he remove the place bet on the point.
I think I have code for that already.
I have to look and see

Sally
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mustangsally
mustangsally
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January 30th, 2018 at 9:28:59 PM permalink
Quote: Craps457

Thank you Sally.

What I meant in regards to house edge is to avoid bets that have large house edges, i.e., prop bets, etc.

ok, i figured that

Quote: Craps457

Do you have a program that you recommend for running simulations?

Wincraps

another thought also
on your place bets, they are OFF on the come out roll? that is default rules.
so you can lower each ev for each place bet by 30%
like so
--Placing Six: ($12 x .46%) x 100*0.70
It can not win or lose while off during the comeout roll.
.46% does not take that reality into consideration, IIRC
I remember that does show up in the simulations
that is because about 70% of craps rolls are non-comeout rolls (1- (165/557) to be exact)

I am looking for the code for pass and place 6&8
I think I have it already, been some time since using it
will check back later

Sally
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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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January 31st, 2018 at 9:09:15 AM permalink
Here is what I found for pass with 1x odds and place 6 & 8 never working on the come out roll
but still placed even if one was the point.



I think most would take down the place and make the pass line odds higher
as it wins more.

now I have the code for both simulations
will run them later and show the code

Sally
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Craps457
Craps457
Joined: Jan 29, 2018
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January 31st, 2018 at 9:35:30 AM permalink
Thank you Sally!

Very interesting point on the calculating the EV based on 70% of the time on the 6 & 8, I didn't think about that.

Your simulations are very interesting. Correct, I would not keep the place bets working on the come out roll and if the point was a 6 or 8 I would take the place bet off and most likely just increase my odds.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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January 31st, 2018 at 1:31:11 PM permalink
3 point Molly 30k sim


pass and place 6&8 30k sim (increase pass line odds by $10 when point is 6 or 8)


3pt Molly vs pass/Place6&8
average

loss
10 vs 10.31
standard deviation
176 vs 176

end results look very much alike

here a few differences I do see:
1) total resolved bets (handle) per 100 rolls
1160 vs 900

3 pt Molly handle almost 30% higher

2) 3 pt Molly range of net result wider

Sally

hope this has all helped out
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