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mustangsally
mustangsally
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
January 29th, 2018 at 7:58:34 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

If you want a low risk system, my system really does work to significantly lower the expected loss per hour.

Buy in, but do not bet until a shooter wins two points in a row. I’m not talking about a 7 winner, or a come bet winner, rather, I mean two come out rolls, where roller then rolls the point.

lots of waiting around I wood say so.
that is about 1 in 6 shooters or about 50 rolls. some tables 50 rolls is almost 1 hour.
now if you mean 2 point winners in a row, where a 7 winner or a crap out happened and you have to start over counting the 2 point winners in a row
that is about 1 in 38 shooters, close to 327 rolls. I think you do not mean that one!

Quote: klimate10

If you bet and the shooter then 7s out, start the process over for next shooter.

If you want to lower your hourly expected loss some more, when the shooter appears to be a male under the age of 40, do not bet, no matter how many points he makes. Males under the age of 40 are negative expectation craps shooters. This is a fact.

I would make that under 50 (just ask them!) and over 60! avoid them at all cost!

OP has it figured out.
not enough bankroll to start.
can only win if table is HOT
looking to win when table is cold.
wants to double starting bankroll every session of play.

typical craps player in my opinion. always wanting this and that
bet against OP when OP is shooting the dice!

that would be lots of fun, I do say
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
klimate10
klimate10
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January 29th, 2018 at 8:54:49 AM permalink
I never said my system was exciting, I just said it would lower the expected loss per hour. That’s why it’s best played with some friends who also happen to be drinking. You can have a pregame party at the craps table for super cheap.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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January 29th, 2018 at 11:05:43 AM permalink
Quote: klimate10

I never said my system was exciting,

very true. I never said it was not, just a lot of waiting around qualifying the shooter. Craps players standing at the table not betting can't be much fun just watching and not betting, thinking of the OP that is.
*****
I said before 2 in a row points is about 1 in 6 shooters.
well, that is actually at least 2 points and does not have to be two in a row.
*****
I think waiting for 2 pass winners in a row
where at least 1 winner is a point winner
would be way more fun and to watch and cheer too
and less waiting to bet.

That is about 21% of all shooters qualify for that one. (less than1 in 5)
those 4 out of 5 that do not qualify for you to start betting
cheer them on anyways.

has to be fun in that
drinks too
less avg loss per hour
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Dabba
Dabba
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January 29th, 2018 at 7:58:44 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

A lot of words



I appreciate the devil's advocate. However I think you assume too much. I do not know if the table is/will be hot or cold, but only can judge past rolls. However, I know variance can swing both ways, and over X amount of time it may be net positive or net negative, depending on what X is. I'm not saying I can predict where variance will go, nor will past swings dictate future results, but I think with good betting and bankroll management, and LUCK, you may be able to catch the "wave" long enough to have a positive outcome. Of course, it's equally possible that you get snubbed on every prediction you make and lose your bets nearly every time. I've had both things happen, but it's nice when things work out.

Secondly, I'd rather play more often with smaller bankrolls of 2-300. The only thing that having 1k would do to my action is increase my center bets. If I have $200, I play with 20ish on the table. If I have 1000, I play with 100ish. On the light side I pretty much play 3 point molly or 6/8 $6 place bets and 1x odds on pass. I sometimes will do PL and 2x come bets with 1x odds but I'd be happier playing that with 1000 so I can use full odds, but otherwise I play the same action, just larger bets on the same thing. As it is right now, I'd rather risk less.

My main question is... is there an equivalent to my play-style on the darkside that I can use when I feel that's the way I should bet? Don't pass with place 6/8 seems like a hedge. Don't pass with 2x Don't comes seems risky, at least compared to say $10 on the dont pass by itself. I've been testing out a $10 don't pass with a place 6 and 8 for $6, and then turning my bets off with 1-2 hits, but still not sure if that's the way to go.

Long story short I'm looking for something on the darkside with about the same action and equivalent house edge.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 30th, 2018 at 3:39:43 AM permalink
Quote: Dabba

I appreciate the devil's advocate.

kinda funny considering a post I made on another thread. But never mind that, I'm glad you are keeping an open mind.
Quote:

However I think you assume too much. I do not know if the table is/will be hot or cold, but only can judge past rolls. However, I know variance can swing both ways, and over X amount of time it may be net positive or net negative, depending on what X is. I'm not saying I can predict where variance will go, nor will past swings dictate future results, but I think with good betting and bankroll management, and LUCK, you may be able to catch the "wave" long enough to have a positive outcome.

There *is* no wave.
Quote:

Of course, it's equally possible that you get snubbed on every prediction you make and lose your bets nearly every time. I've had both things happen, but it's nice when things work out.

Examine the last two statements you made and just admit that both things cannot be true simultaneously.
Quote:

Secondly, I'd rather play more often with smaller bankrolls of 2-300. The only thing that having 1k would do to my action is increase my center bets. If I have $200, I play with 20ish on the table. If I have 1000, I play with 100ish. On the light side I pretty much play 3 point molly or 6/8 $6 place bets and 1x odds on pass. I sometimes will do PL and 2x come bets with 1x odds but I'd be happier playing that with 1000 so I can use full odds, but otherwise I play the same action, just larger bets on the same thing. As it is right now, I'd rather risk less.

OK
Quote:

My main question is... is there an equivalent to my play-style on the darkside that I can use when I feel that's the way I should bet? Don't pass with place 6/8 seems like a hedge. Don't pass with 2x Don't comes seems risky, at least compared to say $10 on the dont pass by itself. I've been testing out a $10 don't pass with a place 6 and 8 for $6, and then turning my bets off with 1-2 hits, but still not sure if that's the way to go.

Long story short I'm looking for something on the darkside with about the same action and equivalent house edge.

Unfortunately I think you are overthinking this. Craps is purely a game that can be played with not much in action and be boring, and the only fix to 'boring' is to put more in action. Fortunately, you can put a lot of that action into zero house edge bets. Unfortunately, doing so raises the variance a lot, creating wild swings ... this is very bad for a small bankroll. Life can be unfair in many ways, and is often unfair to someone not well heeled. Gambling in general can be very cruel; it is the nature of the beast.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dabba
Dabba
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January 30th, 2018 at 5:59:41 AM permalink
Edit: Can't post links, tried to show my bankroll in wincraps while making the same bets. It is a waveform with peaks and troughs that goes up and down.

There are waves in the fact that things will swing in your favor or out of your favor for a certain period of time. Those period of times may be one roll, or a string of 10 rolls, but if you make the same bets you will see your charted bankroll vary like the picture I posted, which represents the variance. If you change your bets then it won't be as well represented in your bankroll chart.

Maybe we are just understanding each other. When I say "Ride the wave" I mean that I hope with LUCK I can bet the right way on the upswings and the wrong way on the downswings. I'm not saying I can predict it, but I hope that my bets will go the same way the wave does for a decent time to make a profit.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 30th, 2018 at 7:15:36 AM permalink
Quote: Dabba

Edit: Can't post links, tried to show my bankroll in wincraps while making the same bets. It is a waveform with peaks and troughs that goes up and down.

There are waves in the fact that things will swing in your favor or out of your favor for a certain period of time. Those period of times may be one roll, or a string of 10 rolls, but if you make the same bets you will see your charted bankroll vary like the picture I posted, which represents the variance. If you change your bets then it won't be as well represented in your bankroll chart.

Maybe we are just understanding each other. When I say "Ride the wave" I mean that I hope with LUCK I can bet the right way on the upswings and the wrong way on the downswings. I'm not saying I can predict it, but I hope that my bets will go the same way the wave does for a decent time to make a profit.



I played with wincraps quite a bit for a while, and, yes, you do get a sine wave effect on your bankroll. Looking at it, it seems as though perhaps you can predict the period if not the amplitude. But it is an illusion, you say yourself you can't predict it.

I think in time if you keep an open mind you will square your two beliefs, one being that rolls are random, and the other that you can hope to detect a future trend. And that squaring will be that 'random' precludes any 'prediction'; that to go on hope in the face of that is just meaningless in terms of strategy.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Dabba
Dabba
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January 30th, 2018 at 7:38:46 AM permalink
I know what you're saying and I agree it seems dumb to say I'd like to bet a certain way on a hunch about the direction of the wave also knowing each rolls is completely random.

But, back to my original post. Are there any darkside bets that would be the equivalent of the PL and place 6/8 or PL and 2 come bets with 1x odds on each?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 30th, 2018 at 11:18:23 AM permalink
Quote: Dabba

I know what you're saying and I agree it seems dumb to say I'd like to bet a certain way on a hunch about the direction of the wave also knowing each rolls is completely random.

But, back to my original post. Are there any darkside bets that would be the equivalent of the PL and place 6/8 or PL and 2 come bets with 1x odds on each?



You can't go darkside on the rightside bets such as middle table bets. Huge HE would now be in your favor and they'd have to take 20% commissions or somesuch.

There is such a thing as lay bets, so maybe you can find some combinations you like there. The Wizard covers it:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mikey75
Mikey75
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January 30th, 2018 at 2:23:47 PM permalink
You can always play don't come with odds. Laying the four and ten would be the dark side equivalent to placing the six and eight.

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