Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 4793
Thanks for this post from:
cwazy
January 11th, 2018 at 10:02:11 AM permalink
I wish the thread would stay on track - I'm find it intriguing that the shaved corners from wear and tear could lead to a bias (as it would role away from the number of which corner it's on and thus towards the number on the opposite side). More info about this plz, and less about the OBVIOUS JOKE REFERRING TO THE CHINESE PRESHUFFLED CARDS ZENKING CLAIMS. Thanks.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 157
January 11th, 2018 at 10:27:57 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I wish the thread would stay on track - I'm find it intriguing that the shaved corners from wear and tear could lead to a bias (as it would role away from the number of which corner it's on and thus towards the number on the opposite side). More info about this plz, and less about the OBVIOUS JOKE REFERRING TO THE CHINESE PRESHUFFLED CARDS ZENKING CLAIMS. Thanks.



Yeah this thread took a bizarre turn lol. Some more on topic discussion would be great, since this potentially opens up some opportunities.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 5515
January 11th, 2018 at 10:33:27 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

It's hard to tell because of all the scratches on the glass, but there is no crack in the felt. You're seeing a reflection of the line in the plastic that is outside of the glass. The die was sitting on its corner, in the same position, for several minutes. While waiting for someone to reset the machine, one player gave his terminal a shove, which made the die visibly wobble a bit but it still didn't fall of its corner. Honestly it was the among the weirdest things I have ever seen in a casino.

You can see the same effect when the interior lights are off (before the roll) in this video. It looks like there's a crack, but when the lights turn on, you can see that there isn't one.



I stand corrected.

How much bias that dice wear could cause is hard to say, but I assume the dice in these machines is rarely, if ever, replaced.
cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 157
January 11th, 2018 at 10:37:02 AM permalink
Quote: Melco



And to put this thread back on topic, It looks like it got stuck in the crack. I'd find it hard to believe you'd be able to exploit this without recording millions of rolls. And even then, it would require millions upon millions to manifest the minuscule +EV resulting from this.



Again, there’s no crack in the platform. It just looks that way because of the reflection from the separation of two plastic panels outside the glass that have blue lights on. If the lights had been on inside, it would be more clear that there is no crack.

And no, it doesn’t take millions of rolls to detect bias.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 4793
January 11th, 2018 at 10:38:17 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

Again, there’s no crack in the platform. It just looks that way because of the reflection. If the lights had been on inside, it would be more clear.

And no, it doesn’t take millions of rolls to detect bias.

Eh, more like 10,000-20,000... similar to a roulette wheel.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 167
  • Posts: 9813
January 11th, 2018 at 10:40:00 AM permalink
First, looking at the first photo, it's obvious that the 'crack' is a reflection of the gap between the two white consoles with the lights in them.

Second, any craps player with any amount of experience has seen a die spin like a top for several seconds before finally falling flat. If these jumbo dice occasionally also spin, then since the corner is rounded, it makes sense that they would merely slow to a stop without necessarily falling flat.

Third, if there is any sort of flattening of the rounded corner due to wear, then there is a strong likelihood that all the corners have similar flattening.

Fourth, Even if there is flattening of only one corner, I fail to see how such a defect can be exploited.

What's really surprising about this photo and story is that a technician had to come to reset the dice. Why couldn't the machine make that determination itself? Surely the cameras that detect the result could also detect this unique situation and declare a 'no roll', and start the vibration thing again. Only if there are two 'corner' results in a row should the machine contact a technician.


Om a somewhat related note, at G2E 2016, I saw a new craps machine (don't remember the brand) that had three of those oversize rounded dice, but each in it's own shaker. The 'shooter' chose two dice.

At one point, one of the dies 'landed' on it's corner, albeit leaning against the glass. Someone from the booth had to open the machine to hit the reset. I wanted to ask why the machine couldn't make that determination on it's own, but didn't get the chance.

I couldn't get a good photo, but you can still see what I'm talking about.

Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 157
January 11th, 2018 at 10:42:00 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Eh, more like 10,000-20,000... similar to a roulette wheel.



Wizard once did a Chi Square analysis to prove that a certain online casino was cheating. If I remember correctly, it was on Craps, and after something like 300 rolls he determined that the odds of those results being naturally occurring were astronomically high - hundreds of millions or billions to one. So it may take less than 10k rolls depending on your technique. I’ll have to look back and see if I can find the article.
cwazy
cwazy
Joined: Mar 18, 2016
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 157
January 11th, 2018 at 10:48:41 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear


What's really surprising about this photo and story is that a technician had to come to reset the dice. Why couldn't the machine make that determination itself? Surely the cameras that detect the result could also detect this unique situation and declare a 'no roll', and start the vibration thing again. Only if there are two 'corner' results in a row should the machine contact a technician.



There had been an unreadable result a few rolls prior to this (die was jammed against a corner). On that roll, it called “No Dice” and rolled again on its own. When this occurred, it froze and locked up all terminals until somebody came to reset it.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 5515
January 11th, 2018 at 10:49:04 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

Wizard once did a Chi Square analysis to prove that a certain online casino was cheating. If I remember correctly, it was on Craps, and after something like 300 rolls he determined that the odds of those results being naturally occurring were astronomically high - hundreds of millions or billions to one. So it may take less than 10k rolls depending on your technique. I’ll have to look back and see if I can find the article.



The number of trials needed to estimate the likelihood of bias will depend on how biased the results are. In this case, I would expect you would need thousands of rolls because I doubt that bubble craps dice are very biased.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 66
  • Posts: 11721
January 11th, 2018 at 10:54:35 AM permalink
Quote: cwazy

For the physicists/math guys out there, the pictures below were taken last night on a Shoot To Win Craps machine. You might not be able to tell, but neither die is touching the other. The die sat in this position, propped on its corner, for several minutes until they came to reset the machine. Is this physically possible without the die being warped in some way?




Looking at the corners again, easily there is enough "flatness" to stand on their ends. That die probably hit the other and instead of falling over, the die sitting flat blocked it and it rocked back without enough momentum to fall all the way back over.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

  • Jump to: