WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin 
Joined: May 20, 2011
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December 31st, 2017 at 11:47:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.



I doubt I will be there the week of Feb 8 but let me know if you are on the east coast. What state are you in? You are validating my position that it is possible to win consistently. Im not saying it is impossible, im saying most people cannot do it for multiple reasons. If you can do it , that is great! I would love to see it and learn from your style of play. If it can give me a new angle and perspective on play, I welcome it. How do you plan to play craps in the 'event'? I told you my strategy. What is yours? I will put up 1000 to your 200. I only want the two of us on the table and perhaps Wizard and Ax if they want. I will monitor every play, bet and chip that you are engaged in while in your sessions. You will start off with 1000 buy in within each session. You will need to make at least 265 when you color up within that session and announce closed session. New sessions will start whenever you want with the same routine. The location will be decided at random mutually agreed upon casino. If you win at least 8 sessions out of 10, you win my 1000. If you do not win at least 8 sessions out of 10, I win your 200. I wish you luck if and when this occurs. I will gladly pay you for showing me the light and how your bright mind achieves this task.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 31st, 2017 at 12:39:40 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You are validating my position that it is possible to win consistently.

That position is sound. It's also valueless and meaningless.
Quote:

I will put up 1000 to your 200.

Soopoo has to put at risk 3000 to the house. Make it worth his risk.
But it won't happen, of course.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
TomG
TomG 
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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December 31st, 2017 at 1:22:18 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.



I will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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December 31st, 2017 at 2:16:36 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

I will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas



he plays on the east coast such as A.C.

you probably will want to fly out there if the stakes are big enough and you can get satisfactory verification

you should easily cover your expenses

I'm not a mathlete but I'm sure your edge on the bet is huge.
"I've looked at life from both sides now. From up and down, and still somehow. It's life's illusions I recall. I really don't know life at all."..........lyrics by Joni Mitchell
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin 
Joined: May 20, 2011
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December 31st, 2017 at 2:21:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

he plays on the east coast such as A.C.

you probably will want to fly out there if the stakes are big enough and you can get satisfactory verification

you should easily cover your expenses

I'm not a mathlete but I'm sure your edge on the bet is huge.



Are you at least 21?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin 
Joined: May 20, 2011
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December 31st, 2017 at 2:22:29 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

I will take this bet. Let me know whenever you are in Las Vegas



What bet? You want to bet on SooPoo or you want to play craps yourself and bet you can win?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOO
December 31st, 2017 at 3:07:04 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Are you at least 21?



I'm lazy and don't need the money.

All my life I chased $$$$.

Now my goal in life is to stop caring about money.

Screw money.

I only enjoy trying to figure out the game/angle aspects of speculation.
"I've looked at life from both sides now. From up and down, and still somehow. It's life's illusions I recall. I really don't know life at all."..........lyrics by Joni Mitchell
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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December 31st, 2017 at 9:17:15 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.



djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
MaxPenRS
January 1st, 2018 at 4:02:01 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen



New year new me, my motto 4 lyfe:

They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:35:05 AM permalink
I live and play in Buffalo. I rarely play craps, and will do so as a social thing. Last time I played I was with BBB and others in North Carolina for the eclipse in August.

My claim is not that I have any special ability, but rather that ANYONE only looking to win 265 with a starting bankroll of 1000 can do so at craps around 70-75% of the time. So to do so 8 out of 10 times although not 50%, would happen way more frequently than 20%, and you are giving me 5-1 odds.

I know those who want the bet to happen would not want me to post this, but my plan would be to make a single pass line or don't pass bet for $265. If I win, done. If I lose next bet is 530. If I win, done. If I lose I'll bet the 205 and try and double it, then bet 90 to get to 500. Then double it or lose it all. If I go from 410 to 320..... You get the idea.
The smarter math minds on the forum can figure out what my EV is assuming we bet my $1000 against your $5000, as an example. I'm probably losing a few hundred by having to play a negative EV game, but probably getting a few thousand in EV from you.

If you can make it to Buffalo the celebratory dinner (for either you or me!) is on me. Duffs chicken wings are worth the flight. It is not impossible that I could fly to AC but I have a bunch of trips planned already and the earliest I could really even consider it would be April.

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