billryan

Joined: Nov 2, 2009
• Posts: 5114
December 30th, 2017 at 6:14:22 PM permalink
He seems to consider a \$265 win a winning session and a \$1000 loss is a losing session.
What about the sessions that fall in between?
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
• Posts: 1249
December 30th, 2017 at 8:41:45 PM permalink
If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
• Posts: 1249
December 30th, 2017 at 8:46:19 PM permalink
I would even throw in a box of Depends for OnceDear if he/she were to take the challenge.. in good faith. I know those long sessions at the tables may bring some discomfort to mate.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 3211
December 31st, 2017 at 2:43:04 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.

If... I were in your location...
and if . . . You would accept the wager over 10 'experiments' ( that's 100 sessions for the math challenged )
and if . . . I trusted you
and if . . . You would put \$50,000 of your money against \$10,000 of my money EACH TIME
and if . . . I could be bothered, which I can't,
I'd be delighted to bank that bet.
The maths just do stack up. It really is quite likely that 8 or more sessions out of 10 would be won.
but WMW doesn't do maths, even when it's done for him, he just brushes it off as irrelevant.

Maybe some US based member would like to take up WMW's challenge..

I take it that WMW read this. https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1677
Last edited by: OnceDear on Dec 31, 2017
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
• Posts: 1249
December 31st, 2017 at 4:10:26 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

If... I were in your location...
and if . . . You would accept the wager over 10 'experiments' ( that's 100 sessions for the math challenged )
and if . . . I trusted you
and if . . . You would put \$50,000 of your money against \$10,000 of my money EACH TIME
and if . . . I could be bothered, which I can't,
I'd be delighted to bank that bet.
The maths just do stack up. It really is quite likely that 8 or more sessions out of 10 would be won.
but WMW doesn't do maths, even when it's done for him, he just brushes it off as irrelevant.

Maybe some US based member would like to take up WMW's challenge..

I take it that WMW read this. https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/#post1677

That is a nice blog and I appreciate you referencing my termed 'hit n run' play. 35 consecutive wins is a great feat but you were not winning at least 26.5% each session.. not even close. Regardless of how much was won or not, the initial point I was making, when I first started posting about playing craps, is that my belief and my experience tells me that you need to hit n run if you are going to play. Your blog proves my point to a degree. Although it is considered a small sample and in the long hall you say you will get crushed.... I say you are smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 3211
December 31st, 2017 at 5:16:02 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

That is a nice blog and I appreciate you referencing my termed 'hit n run' play. 35 consecutive wins is a great feat but you were not winning at least 26.5% each session.. not even close. Regardless of how much was won or not, the initial point I was making, when I first started posting about playing craps, is that my belief and my experience tells me that you need to hit n run if you are going to play. Your blog proves my point to a degree. Although it is considered a small sample and in the long hall you say you will get crushed.... I say you are smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going.

Cheers WMW,
I really do enjoy playing hit and run for amusement. I also do frequently bank a profit. But it's only about amusement, from an entertainment budget that I won early on.

I am smart enough and disciplined enough to keep it going. I'm also smart enough to not take it seriously and not waste significant money on it. That's the bit you need to learn: It's not sustainable, not even in a medium haul.

You can, and probably have, had lots of winning sessions and for all I know it's made you rich, in which case good for you. It can be amusing to repeat week in week out 'Look at me I keep winning' But it's only right that we members here try to warn you that soon enough you will, like many others before you, just go quiet and fade away on the forum as you start to feel the reality kick in.

I honestly think that you believe your discipline is enough. That's why I used nice simple maths to PROVE that your 80% win rate is perfectly reasonable and ordinary. Then I went on to use the same maths to prove you are heading for ruin. Check my calculations and assessments for yourself. Also work through and understand my assessment of your prop bet.

Anyway, Have a happy and prosperous new year. May you have the sort of luck that you need.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 4965
December 31st, 2017 at 5:17:17 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.

I'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 3211
December 31st, 2017 at 5:23:28 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'll take that bet! I'll be in Las Vegas February 9-13. Pick an amount you would like to bet. If you are willing to let The Wizard escrow our bets and be the judge I think I can convince him to do so. I do assure you I have no particular ability at craps, other than knowing the odds and house edge of the bets. You tell me how much you want to risk. I'll be available pretty much any time except dinner time 2/10 as that is GF, oops, fiancee's birthday.

Here we go.... Soopoo realised that WMW is offering a great bet. I'd love to watch the spectacle.
Is anyone taking side bets on whether the challenge goes ahead? My money is on the 'no' Hopefully I've demonstrated to WMW that he was unwise to offer up the challenge.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 7816
December 31st, 2017 at 6:04:54 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Here we go.... Soopoo realised that WMW is offering a great bet. I'd love to watch the spectacle.
Is anyone taking side bets on whether the challenge goes ahead? My money is on the 'no' Hopefully I've demonstrated to WMW that he was unwise to offer up the challenge.

Just based on watching what goes on here, I'd have to say fair odds would be .... well, let's see, there have been about a dozen of these don't-come-throughs and not one* stand-up-guy, that's infinity ... ummm, Wizard says he had one guy come through ... I'd take the small end of 50:1 even though it might be foolish.

*we did have a dice controller come through, but that is not a betting system thing.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
• Posts: 1682
December 31st, 2017 at 6:38:14 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

If anyone here thinks they can profit at least 26.5 % 8 out of 10 sessions in craps as I described, let me know and I will wager you 5-1 if you achieve the goal. It would prove to me that you are a winner and I will observe your strategy and be thrilled to perhaps even better my play.

If everybody on the forum took that bet depending on the amount the guy would go bankrupt. Not that I'm wishing that on him. I'm not that cruel. But the thought of it is kind of amusing. Also, in his earlier post he said this about the odds he should get:

" Would 5x - 10x sound fair?"

Now on the other side of the bet the 6/1, 7/1, 8/1, 9/1 or 10/1 isn't being offered.

That's a real shame.
"𝕀 𝕛𝕦𝕤𝕥 𝕕𝕣𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕖𝕕 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕖𝕖 𝕨𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕞𝕪 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕨𝕒𝕤 𝕚𝕟"