WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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December 30th, 2017 at 2:23:03 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

for any person to win $2,120 before losing $3,000 making the lowest house edge bets at craps does not make anybody a HUGE UNDERDOG. it would make anybody a HUGE FAVORITE and it would prove nothing. You want to get paid 5 or 10/1 for that proposition? You must think people here are stupid.



You are misguided. You think that someone to win consistently 80% of the time in a game that has Neg EV.... and the board has already stated that it is impossible to consistently win, you think that guy is a favorite? Im not winning the 2120 at any given point, Im consistently and methodically winning over and over which is the point. You must be smoking tonight! The house is an underdog? haha Thanks for the complement. I guess I can do it after all !
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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December 30th, 2017 at 2:26:30 PM permalink
Time to go rack up another W. Already cashed in Ws twice today. Good luck with your gaming little rooster guy. Hope you can do the same.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
horse
horse
Joined: Dec 10, 2017
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December 30th, 2017 at 2:35:08 PM permalink
Thank you to whoever explained the wedding belonged to Alan M. I understand who that is. Pretty funny. You mean he also threw 18 yo's consecutively? Huh?

beachb, I did read about a few of the system people here earlier, and I agree most of them (all those I read about) are much more than probably either selling something, they like arguing, or they come to forums as a method of trying to turn others.

But I don't believe all of them do. Some may in fact have something only fit for them, their abilities, and/or their intelligence level. We can't just write them all off to that Welcome statement unless they are all understood thoroughly, explained in detail, questions answered, and the system is proven one way or the other in front of doubters and disbelievers.

I have not found one yet, but I believe a few may be out there just as much as I believe there is other intelligent life in this universe.

What I don't believe in is that Welcome statement. If someone said with such certainty that there is no God, would THAT statement pass the 100% truthful test?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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December 30th, 2017 at 2:35:59 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You are misguided. You think that someone to win consistently 80% of the time in a game that has Neg EV.... and the board has already stated that it is impossible to consistently win, you think that guy is a favorite? Im not winning the 2120 at any given point, Im consistently and methodically winning over and over which is the point. You must be smoking tonight! The house is an underdog? haha Thanks for the complement. I guess I can do it after all !



Out of 20 times:

If you won the bet 11 times you would win $23,320

If you lost the bet 9 times you would lose $27,000.

You would win your ridiculous proposition 55% of the time but you would lose money overall on your actual game betting.

And you think somebody here is stupid enough to pay you 5 to 10/1 for that?
"I've looked at life from both sides now. From up and down, and still somehow. It's life's illusions I recall. I really don't know life at all."..........lyrics by Joni Mitchell
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 30th, 2017 at 3:21:33 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin


- I will win 80% of the time I play a session. 10 sessions should suffice while Im in town. So 8 out of 10 sessions will be Wins.

- A win is defined as profiting 26.5% of my buy-in bank roll on each session. I plan to buy in 1000 each session. Therefore, I will need to win at least 265 by the time I color up and announce that that particular session is closed.
- If I lose my 1000 in a session.. then that session will be considered a Loss.
- If I lose more than 2 sessions, then I will consider myself defeated in this event.
- If I win at least 8 sessions, then I will consider myself victorious in this event. (if you do the math you will see that if I were to win the minimum 265 in 8 sessions (2120), this will exceed any losses I would incur if I were to lose 2 sessions (200


Since I have been mocked and scorn repeatedly with claims and accusations that Im full of it and that it is not possible to win consistently as stated, I feel that there should be a multiple on my risk wager as Im a huge underdog and the house is always the favorite. Would 5x - 10x sound fair? I will put up 1000 to your 5000-10,000. Since this is an impossible task.. it is easy money for you. Money in the Bank! I cant get lucky that many times. I will stay hydrated and have lots of energy, dont worry. You mentioned that you will match my win / loss from my sessions as well... and vice versa and dollar for dollar value.

Just thinking out loud... as you came after me first.



Just thinking out loud. I agree with the part where you said something about "full of s#%^"

So. thinking aloud myself. Not having any interest in your playing style:-
A hit and run session on a game with low house edge, where you walk away with either 26.5% profit or total session loss will have a probability of success of 79%
OnceDear's rule of thumb

With a bit of help from Bernoulli trials ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial )

If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning all 10 sessions is 0.79^10 = 9.5%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning exactly 9 sessions is (10!/(9!*1!))*0.79^9*(1-.79)^1 = 25.2%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning exactly 8 sessions is (10!/(8!*2!))*0.79^8*(1-.79)^2 = 30.1%
If you play 10 sessions on that basis, then your probability of winning at least 8 sessions is 9.5+25.2+30.1=64.8%

full table of outcomes...
WinsProbabilityProfitExpected Value
100.09468276082626852650250.909316189612
90.2516883515634991385348.588366915445
80.30107024332595712036.1284291991149
70.213416881344982-1145-244.362329140005
60.0992793720180771-2410-239.263286563566
50.031668862972855-3675-116.383071425242
40.00701525445601218-4940-34.6553570127002
30.00106560827179932-6205-6.61209932651477
20.0001062236093724-7470-0.79349036201183
16.27481236798988E-06-8735-0.0548104860343916
01.6679880978201E-07-10000-0.0016679880978201


Remember, I asserted house edge was negligible and I stick with that assertion.

So, ignoring the modest house edge, which is not unreasonable for such short sessions, you have approaching a 64.8% probability of winning your proposition bet. In fact the very most likely eventuality over 10 sessions is that you will win exactly 8 sessions. That has whopping 30% probability on its own.

So asking for odds was very cheeky and no-one here would be stupid enough to even give you even money let alone multiple odds, since you are mathematically much more likely to win the prop bet than lose it.

Doesn't mean you are on to anything though. there is no paradox here. You ARE LIKELY to win more sessions than lose. You are less than 50% likely to double your lifetime bankroll than you are to lose it.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Dec 30, 2017
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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December 30th, 2017 at 4:06:41 PM permalink
He's not going to understand that math. His hit and run theory always nets him positive results. He has 25 years of experience.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 30th, 2017 at 4:19:56 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

He's not going to understand that math. His hit and run theory always nets him positive results. He has 25 years of experience.


ZCore13


Maybe he is perfectly au fait with the maths and expects some idiot to rock up and give him odds on his prop bet.
But I concur, maths is not in his toolbox, only some good variance, some selective memory and some cockiness,
The maths is there with enough simple to understand background to warn him that he is on the road to certain ruin.
Frankly I don't care about his future welfare, but I hope I've given enough mathematically challenged newbies a fighting chance of not replicating the error of his ways.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
TomG
TomG 
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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December 30th, 2017 at 4:20:56 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

and it will be with just Ax for the time being as he is the guy that I have come to trust so far... as ironic as that may seem since he is the one guy that has come at me from the get go. haha



Offering the bet to only one person who wouldn't have any interest under your terms shows that you must not be telling everything. Why not open up a reasonable offer to everyone?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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December 30th, 2017 at 4:40:43 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

He's not going to understand that math. His hit and run theory always nets him positive results. He has 25 years of experience.


ZCore13


And why these people waste their time gloating about it instead of making MORE money is beyond me.
DAAIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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December 30th, 2017 at 5:36:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

And why these people waste their time gloating about it instead of making MORE money is beyond me.

In WatchMeWin's alternative reality, there is no rule that says that what you place down as a wager is absolutely and directly proportional to what you can expect to pick up. We fools just don't understand that and that's why we could never succeed in replicating his success. Got to know when to run and don't be greedy.

If we stood at the same table as him and replicated his bets exactly, except 100 times as much from our bankroll which is 100 times as much as his, then we would jinx influence the table. He doesn't bet bigger for the same reason.

But he's not dumb*. He gets his action in as more frequent, modest length sessions.

I expect he would withdraw from the table if we ever messed up his universe in that way.

All he has is the gloat, and the few dollars he's won over his extensive time at the table.

* Bless him. He will learn.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.

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