WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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January 7th, 2018 at 8:51:40 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Yeah, because nobody would notice you winning $270 multiple times a day all year long.


ZCore13



Where do you work and what is your position title?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKintbeachbumbabs
January 7th, 2018 at 9:13:27 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Where do you work and what is your position title?



Lol. Did you just sat that in your best Arnold Schwarzenegger voice?

What is you name and who is your daddy?


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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January 7th, 2018 at 9:24:11 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Lol. Did you just sat that in your best Arnold Schwarzenegger voice?

What is you name and who is your daddy?


ZCore13



Well... Care to answer? Now get to the Chopper!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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January 7th, 2018 at 9:52:34 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Well... Care to answer? Now get to the Chopper!



I've been a Dealer, Pit Boss, Shift Manager, Table Games Director and been a panelist at two National Conventions on Table Games. Ive also consulted on a handful of new table games and for a dealer school.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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January 7th, 2018 at 10:00:49 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I've been a Dealer, Pit Boss, Shift Manager, Table Games Director and been a panelist at two National Conventions on Table Games. Ive also consulted on a handful of new table games and for a dealer school.


ZCore13



Thanks for the info. Credible n much respect. What city are you located in? I may need some of your help down the road.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 7th, 2018 at 10:16:15 AM permalink
I've been asked to join this thread. Forgive me if I don't read every post. Betting system threads tend to not be of much interest to me.

As I understand it, the question is what is the probability of success of turning $1,000 into $1,265, with the alternative being losing the full $1,000. If we can ignore the thin house edge by making only don't bets and laying full odds, the probability of success per session is 1000/1265 = 79.05%.

I'm told there is a question of the probability of 8 or more successes if this experiment is repeated 10 times. Again, ignoring the house edge, the following table answers that question.

Wins Probability Cummulative
10 0.095300 0.095300
9 0.252546 0.347846
8 0.301161 0.649008
7 0.212821 0.861828
6 0.098696 0.960524
5 0.031385 0.991909
4 0.006931 0.998840
3 0.001050 0.999889
2 0.000104 0.999994
1 0.000006 1.000000
0 0.000000 1.000000
Total 1.000000


The cumulative column shows the probability of 8 to 10 successes is 64.90%. Of course, it will be a little less due to the house edge. I'd have to run simulation to determine that answer, which is going beyond the call of duty of what I'll do for free. However, if forced, with a very careful strategy to minimize total action, I'd put it at about 60%.

I hope this information is helpful.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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January 7th, 2018 at 10:38:40 AM permalink
if a high roller has ever been banned from a casino who wasn't cheating; but for winning too much while he was just playing a negative expectancy house game in a normal way, that would surely make news.

I want somebody to show me a news story where that has happened.

Just one. Please
"𝕀 𝕛𝕦𝕤𝕥 𝕕𝕣𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕖𝕕 𝕚𝕟 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕖𝕖 𝕨𝕙𝕒𝕥 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕞𝕪 𝕔𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟 𝕨𝕒𝕤 𝕚𝕟"
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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January 7th, 2018 at 10:42:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been asked to join this thread. Forgive me if I don't read every post. Betting system threads tend to not be of much interest to me.

As I understand it, the question is what is the probability of success of turning $1,000 into $1,265, with the alternative being losing the full $1,000. If we can ignore the thin house edge by making only don't bets and laying full odds, the probability of success per session is 1000/1265 = 79.05%.

I'm told there is a question of the probability of 8 or more successes if this experiment is repeated 10 times. Again, ignoring the house edge, the following table answers that question.

Wins Probability Cummulative
10 0.095300 0.095300
9 0.252546 0.347846
8 0.301161 0.649008
7 0.212821 0.861828
6 0.098696 0.960524
5 0.031385 0.991909
4 0.006931 0.998840
3 0.001050 0.999889
2 0.000104 0.999994
1 0.000006 1.000000
0 0.000000 1.000000
Total 1.000000


The cumulative column shows the probability of 8 to 10 successes is 64.90%. Of course, it will be a little less due to the house edge. I'd have to run simulation to determine that answer, which is going beyond the call of duty of what I'll do for free. However, if forced, with a very careful strategy to minimize total action, I'd put it at about 60%.

I hope this information is helpful.



Thank you for your input, Wizard. So, what odds would you give to someone trying to achieve this task?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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January 7th, 2018 at 11:46:46 AM permalink
Have we determined how much we bet to achieve this? What system or flat bet?
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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January 7th, 2018 at 12:17:33 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been asked to join this thread. Forgive me if I don't read every post. Betting system threads tend to not be of much interest to me.

As I understand it, the question is what is the probability of success of turning $1,000 into $1,265, with the alternative being losing the full $1,000. If we can ignore the thin house edge by making only don't bets and laying full odds, the probability of success per session is 1000/1265 = 79.05%.

I'm told there is a question of the probability of 8 or more successes if this experiment is repeated 10 times. Again, ignoring the house edge, the following table answers that question.

Wins Probability Cummulative
10 0.095300 0.095300
9 0.252546 0.347846
8 0.301161 0.649008
7 0.212821 0.861828
6 0.098696 0.960524
5 0.031385 0.991909
4 0.006931 0.998840
3 0.001050 0.999889
2 0.000104 0.999994
1 0.000006 1.000000
0 0.000000 1.000000
Total 1.000000


The cumulative column shows the probability of 8 to 10 successes is 64.90%. Of course, it will be a little less due to the house edge. I'd have to run simulation to determine that answer, which is going beyond the call of duty of what I'll do for free. However, if forced, with a very careful strategy to minimize total action, I'd put it at about 60%.

I hope this information is helpful.


Thanks Wizard, I already showed the same. We concur pretty much exactly.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/29954-winning-is-my-drug/7/#post620340

~64% probability of hitting the '8 or more' goal.
WMW asking for odds on the wager is absurd.
If, however he's willing to offer 5 to 1 that someone else could not do it, he's a bigger [insert appropriate derogatory description] than I ever imagined.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.

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