New craps strategy -- what do you think?

My usual craps strategy is minimum on the PL/come every roll with max odds (up to 5x on a $5 table). This strategy works pretty well for me but entails spending a long time at the table to get back to even, since it requires a hot roll to make a lot of money. Most of the time I am bleeding chips.
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I am taking a trip with a friend to a casino that only has $10 craps. I am thinking of changing my strategy to a lower variance system. At first I considered a pass line bet plus two come bets with single odds, but then had another idea: Play the pass line for $10, taking single odds on any point. Then place the 6&8 for $12 each. If the six or eight hits, take $10 in winnings and press the odds on the PL. The place bets stay up until I've maxed out my PL odds (house offers 3x4x5x). Whether I take the place bets down at that point I haven't decided. (The other thing I haven't decided is whether to take 2x odds off the top when six or eight is the point.)
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My friend likes to play the pass line exclusively, so I figure this is a good way to get immediate action on the table, while still creating a "treasure chest" behind the pass line bet without taking max odds right away. That way we can all root for the shooter to make his or her point, and I won't get bored.
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What do you think of this strategy? I may just regress to the pass plus two comes, since that's what I know, but this seems like a different, and possibly funner, strategy.

Also, does anyone know if shops will let you place an odds bet for the dealer over the max odds when you haven't already made a place bet for them?

Since you're "financing" your odds with your first place bet hit you're not really lowering the variance - I think you'd slowly bleed money with an occasional big win. I'd either stick with maybe 2-3 pass/come with odds or placing the 6/8 for 18-24.

Thanks. I just can't bring myself to "bet big" on the 6&8 when I could be pressing on the free odds rather than a 1.5% H.E. bet. I guess I like the idea pressing on a free bet, instead of going "up a unit" or stacking up on the field like you seen some players doing.

I might just do two comes with single odds on all, or one come with double odds. Good variance, good action, and almost-optimal house edge.

Quote: teddys

Also, does anyone know if shops will let you place a bet for the dealer on the odds when you haven't already made a place bet for them?

I'm not sure that I understand your question completely. If you have less than full odds on any of your pass/come/don't bets, I think you can add to those odds and consider that portion a bet for the dealers, just so you don't go over the 3x4x5x total.

As for a strategy on bets, I am rather inconsistent myself, but I have lately been trying to milk my limited bankroll. One technique I sometimes try is a minimum pass bet with double odds, triple if the point is 6 or 8. Then each time there are three consecutive rolls of the dice without my winning or losing any money, I add a minimum come bet with similar odds. That step eliminates the boredom of watching a zillion numbers that I am not involved with. With that method, there have to be a lot of rolls before I get very much money out on the table, though sometimes I do wind up with quite a few come bets in action. Sometimes I do place 6 and/or 8, but it comes down if I get a point/odds on that number. Only if I am having a good session do I go to higher odds -- I know that's the best bet on the table, but I'm trying to keep the volatility down in light of the small bankroll.

On the other hand, I tend to get nutty and place $1 on the hard way just as a throw-away lark, if I get an even point or a 6/8 placed. If one of my hard way bets hits and I still have a point/place on that number, I press the hard way to $5, keeping it at $1 if my point on the number is gone. I realize I am working a bit against myself, with some strategy elements to reduce variance and some to increase variance. I'm just in it for the entertainment, and my gambling bankroll is well below what I could afford -- I just don't need a lot of genuine risk to get the entertainment from the game.

Doc is onto something: throwing a buck on the hard ways is a good way to give you action on more numbers. Losing action most of the time... but at least you'd have action for a low amount of cash on the 6/8.

Any discussion of a "craps strategy" would have to take into account: what is your goal?

Do you want the best mathematical result? Then the answer is easy. Stay home--or at least don't play.

Do you want to play, but have the best mathematical result? Then make a pass line bet only. Whether or not you take odds is immaterial, since the net result of all your odds bets will be +$0.

Do you want to put a given amount of money into action, but have the smallest disadvantage possible? Then make the smallest possible pass line bet, and the largest possible odds bet.

Do you want to have a lot of "action", with a lot of numbers working? Then make two come bets after the point is established, and if you wish, take full odds.

Do you want to get the most out of a hot roll, and get nuked by a cold table? Then place the 6 and 8. Keep in mind, most rolls will be a net loss for you. So I would imagine you would need the largest bankroll of all for this "strategy".

Consider that ten 6/8 place bets of $12 each ($120 total) should lose you about $2, while $120 worth of odds bets should lose you $0. To me, this makes ensuring that as much of my action as possible is in odds bets a no-brainer.

Quote: mkl654321

$120 worth of odds bets should lose you $0

The variance on the odds bets adds the kind of factor that IMO you should not really think of it in terms of expected value, but in terms of the variance it adds. You're risking real money, not play money. Or you can think of it as reducing the overall House Edge for the action you want at the price of increased variance. But I would never look at it as just a zero EV bet, although the House can. I'm not sure the gambler exists who can, since hundreds of thousands of craps trials over a lifetime wouldn't seem to be likely for anyone; wouldn't even a Whale instead go for the action of thousands of dollars a throw and also never see the large number of trials?

Thanks, folks. I think I was getting a little "too cute" with my idea of financing the odds with the 6/8. Not saying I won't try it (still sounds like fun), but will probably do some combination of pass/come with odds. Best by test, right? Thanks again for your help.

Teddy: Here is one odds betting scheme that I have conjured up, have tried many and this has done the best and keeps me busy during the hand. Wins about 8 out of 10 day sessions and overall is a net winner now after many sessions. In Mississippi we have 20x odds. My theory is that as good numbers(inside) are rolled per point sequence, the more likelihood of making the point, and it has worked well overall for me. Also, do not get hurt as bad on the many point seven outs which are too common as we know. Just concentrate on the odds bet instead of multiple place bets, I have learned the hard way.

Start the new point with $5 pass and the following odds: if the point is 6 or 8 then $15 odds, if point is 5 or 9 $10 odds, if the point is 4 or 10 then $5 odds. Then as each INSIDE number(5,6,8,9) is rolled after the point is established, then increase the odds bet by $5. Occasionally will get to $50 or more odds, but this is rare. I play with a $600 day trip bankroll. Here is an example: $5 pass to start, point is 6 so $15 odds. Then a 5 is rolled, so odds bet goes to $20 total, Next roll is 10, no change as not an inside number. Then a 8 is rolled, so odds bet goes to $25, then he makes the point of 6. Then start over from the beginning on the next point. Now off to the casino for another day session..

Quote: dwm

Teddy: Here is one odds betting scheme that I have conjured up, have tried many and this has done the best and keeps me busy during the hand. Wins about 8 out of 10 day sessions and overall is a net winner now after many sessions. In Mississippi we have 20x odds. My theory is that as good numbers(inside) are rolled per point sequence, the more likelihood of making the point, and it has worked well overall for me. Also, do not get hurt as bad on the many point seven outs which are too common as we know. Just concentrate on the odds bet instead of multiple place bets, I have learned the hard way.

Start the new point with $5 pass and the following odds: if the point is 6 or 8 then $15 odds, if point is 5 or 9 $10 odds, if the point is 4 or 10 then $5 odds. Then as each INSIDE number(5,6,8,9) is rolled after the point is established, then increase the odds bet by $5. Occasionally will get to $50 or more odds, but this is rare. I play with a $600 day trip bankroll. Here is an example: $5 pass to start, point is 6 so $15 odds. Then a 5 is rolled, so odds bet goes to $20 total, Next roll is 10, no change as not an inside number. Then a 8 is rolled, so odds bet goes to $20, then he makes the point of 6. Then start over from the beginning on the next point. Now off to the casino for another day session..

Not a bad method, though the fact that a bunch of numbers rolled has nothing to do with whether the point is coming. It is wise to press your odds instead of messing around with place bets or other come bets. Plus you can build up a nice "jackpot" behind the pass line--kind of like playing a progressive slot machine ;)
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I usually play $5 pass with the max odds and a come bet with max odds every roll. It's a "go for broke" style. If it's a 10x or 20x table, I'll take 5x odds. My bankroll won't support more than that. This time, however, I'm playing a $10 table so I have to change my methods.

What's your bankroll going to be? To reduce variance, just reduce your odds multiple and/or modify your odds based upon the point. When I have a small bankroll, I may only play odds on 6/8. If the point is not a 6/8, play come bets until you get a 6/8, then place your odds bets on that.

This allows you to get a fair amount of action going without having too much exposed to an early 7-out. Come bets obviously create a natural "hedge" on the 7 showing as well, which will reduce variance. I've found that placing 6/8 can quickly wipe out a smaller bankroll if things don't go well off the start.

I personally love the 6/8 place bets. While I've never used them to finance PL odds, I always bet them, usually for the minimum ($6, $12, or $18). If I'm winning I may press or just put up a larger amount on them from the start. This is in addition to taking odds (minimum 2x). If my bankroll was small, I would probably consider the PL odds financing just because I like to have more #s working immediately. But that's just me!

--RPToro

Sometimes my scheme fails miserably when few points are made over an extended period of time, but nothing works all the time as we know, and granted there is nothing in the math that says it should work better. But on a half way decent table, if you play it as I explained, it works very well.In my example, have corrected my original post as my latest odds bet should have been $25 before it was made. You may just like it if you decide to give it a trial.

That continuous come-odds betting is one that I have tried with mixed results, but grew weary of come betting. Too often get spread out with no or too few hits, and the ugly is never your friend especially on the come out rolls when you lose all your base come bets.

Quote: ruascott

What's your bankroll going to be? To reduce variance, just reduce your odds multiple and/or modify your odds based upon the point. When I have a small bankroll, I may only play odds on 6/8. If the point is not a 6/8, play come bets until you get a 6/8, then place your odds bets on that.

This allows you to get a fair amount of action going without having too much exposed to an early 7-out. Come bets obviously create a natural "hedge" on the 7 showing as well, which will reduce variance. I've found that placing 6/8 can quickly wipe out a smaller bankroll if things don't go well off the start.

I do something similar because of my small bankroll. My casino allows only 3x odds. I will place 3x odds on the 6 & 8 if they come up, because they're the most likely to come up again. For 5 & 9 I will use either single or double odds, depending on how good a night I've had so far. As for 4 & 10, I normally either don't put odds at all or only single odds, unless I've just been having a really good night, when I might do double odds.

I don't normally place or buy any numbers. I would rather make come bets and at least have a chance at true odds instead of the lower odds that those bets give you. I will place the 6 & 8 every now and then, but will usually take them down if they've hit once or twice to keep from eventually losing them.

My bankroll is going to be quite small -- maybe $500-$600. Another thing I'm considering is stacking it up on the pass line. There is some old-school sexiness to scooping up a ton of chips on a winner seven. I bet $25 on the pass line each come out recently at a $25 minimum table in Illinois and had a bit of fun.

Quote: teddys

My bankroll is going to be quite small -- maybe $500-$600. Another thing I'm considering is stacking it up on the pass line. There is some old-school sexiness to scooping up a ton of chips on a winner seven. I bet $25 on the pass line each come out recently at a $25 minimum table in Illinois and had a bit of fun.

Really depends upon what your goal is. Are you trying for a long time at the table? Or just trying to hit a hot streak and get out? Playing just the PL alone for $25 or so would probably let you play for a long time with $500-600. But you might get a bit bored waiting for points to resolve, and obviously you are missing out on the free odds/variance.

I think the sexiest thing is putting down odds on 5/9 or 4/10 and getting a really large stack come your way when the point hits.

Quote: ruascott

I think the sexiest thing is putting down odds on 5/9 or 4/10 and getting a really large stack come your way when the point hits.

Yes, it's really nice to win big. It's also nice not to lose your chips all at once. So, you are right: really depends on what your goal is.

My goal is to play for not very long (usually I play for hours -- this will be shorter), but have a chance to win big-ish. But I don't want to bust out my bankroll in the time that I am there. It's easy to accomplish this -- bet less. The only thing I'm concerned about is how to spread my bets around. So that's why I asked the initial question, and the advice has been helpful. I will let you all know how it goes and what method I ultimately choose.
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Actually, if someone here has access to WinCraps (Alan?), I would appreciate an analysis of the following threee methods, with SD, average net loss, etc. Assuming a bankroll of $500-$600 on a $10 game with 3x4x5x odds for a 60 roll session:
1)$10 Pass Line bet. If point is 4,5,9,10, take single odds and place the six and eight for $12 each. If 6 or 8 hits, press pass line odds one unit. Take down six and eight when odds are maxed. If point is 6,8, take double odds, and place the other of 6 or 8 for $12. If either hits, press the pass line odds one unit. Take down the place bet when odds are maxed.
2)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. Two $10 come bets. Single odds.
3)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. One $10 come bet. Double odds.

Personally I follow John Gollehons 'power betting' strategy. Pass Line and Come bets with odds in a progressive matter. With a 10x table you can keep table min on PL and come and push up the odds as a product of prior wins. Three losses in a row or three losses out of four tosses and I'm out of that table and looking for some video poker, blackjack, lunch, or hitting the door. I'd rather win or then just "play". But hey, that's just me.

Quote: teddys

Actually, if someone here has access to WinCraps (Alan?),
I would appreciate an analysis of the following three methods, with SD, average net loss, etc.
Assuming a bankroll of $500-$600 on a $10 game with 3x4x5x odds for a 60 roll session:
1)$10 Pass Line bet. If point is 4,5,9,10, take single odds and place the six and eight for $12 each. If 6 or 8 hits, press pass line odds one unit. Take down six and eight when odds are maxed. If point is 6,8, take double odds, and place the other of 6 or 8 for $12. If either hits, press the pass line odds one unit. Take down the place bet when odds are maxed.
2)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. Two $10 come bets. Single odds.
3)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. One $10 come bet. Double odds.

Here are some results for you.
This was from a guido111 file. I was given a copy.
Looks like he was going to post this before his sudden departure.
Here is also a link to a .zip folder, about 8mb, maybe 50mb total.
http://www.pulcinientertainment.com/info/teddy1.zip

You can only open these .glg files in WinCraps for viewing.
Notepad is not worth it.
WinCraps is for Windows and is free.
Also tells you how to use the data files in the Games Log window.

Looks to me to show the mean and the standard deviation of the ending bankroll.
Then the ev/sd follows
I looked at the auto-bet files that produced these data files and they look to be error free code.
Maybe I link to them if you have an interest later.

1) Your pass/odds and place 6&8
not working place bets on COR
-4.56
150.78

always working Place bets
-7.16
149.29


60 roll session:
1-1)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. One $10 come bets. Single odds.
-6.64
116.17
-0.057158
2-1)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. Two $10 come bets. Single odds.
-5.61
139.90
-0.0401
3-1)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. x3x $10 come bets. Single odds.
-5.52
158.53
-0.0.03482
4-1)$10 Pass Line bet. Single odds. all $10 come bets. Single odds.
-7.73
178.93
-0.043201


$25 odds 6&8
1-2)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. One $10 come bet. Double odds.
-4.49
191.77
-0.023413
2-2)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. Two $10 come bets. Double odds.
-8.48
235.41
-0.036022
3-2)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. x3x $10 come bets. Double odds.
-9.04
267.58
-0.033784
4-2)$10 Pass Line bet. Double odds. all $10 come bets. Double odds.
-9.46
309.04
-0.03061

To me, the lower evs are because of the lower number bets resolved and maybe not because one method is better than another.
You can look to see how much action each method produced and compare that way.
or maybe you have no interest in that either

Hey, Good Luck!

Wow, thanks! What an unexpected surprise. I mostly play come bet + max odds every roll now. As of recently, I am getting killed. (What else is new?)

This is close to how I play. I like to stretch my bankroll and still get action, so I usually put down a PL bet, depending on the point and my bankroll I take 1-2x odds (Casino allows 100x) and place the 6 and 8 for the minimum. When the first of the two place numbers hit, I take that one down and I put most of the winnings on my PL odds bet. Then if/when the second place number hits, I pocket the winnings and take the bet down. If the 6 or 8 is the point and/or both numbers hit almost immediately I will either leave one of them up or move them to another number (if I'm feeling 'lucky'--it's gambling afterall!) or I will turn it into another come bet. Sometimes it is disappointing because there won't be action for a while, or the shooter will roll 4 8's after I take my 8 down, but I try to be patient. In the case of a seven out before the 6 or 8, I am only losing slightly more than what I would have without the place bets since I am financing my place bets with would-be odds bets. An unfortunate thing is when the shooter makes the point before throwing either 6 or 8 and I have only 1x odds behind, but it's really hard to be too upset about that. :)

So I would say go for it. The only difference is if you want to consider taking your place bets down sooner you can add them to your odds bet once they hit.

I see this is an old post, how did your trip go?

Quote: drussell0208

I see this is an old post, how did your trip go?

Heh, we ended up not even going. Anyways, when I play myself I do some combination of PL + Come bets with max odds (10x or greater). I need variance on the upside!