Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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May 28th, 2015 at 7:27:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.



I once made the argument that a single field bet is smarter than placing the six or eight until the seven rolls based on the same basis.

Assuming that coming out ahead 1/6th of your risk at the end is not a great outcome, the field for one roll has the exact same cost as placing the six or placing the eight for six rolls at the same bet amount, and you have a greater probability of coming out ahead by a full unit or more (4/9ths or 44.44% for the field vs 25.16% for six/eight place bet).

Guys that bet this way are betting on the hopes of a very long roll. They're not gambling for the best possible chance to win. And it doesn't matter what they think that they are doing, when your volatility goes down and your cost goes up at the same time, it's something that catches up with you eventually.

Most people have a hard time comparing a strategy with an effective long-term cost and lowered volatility to a single bet. But even stupid single bets often are far better than any strategy that suffers from compound edges (especially those that press up the wins).
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:38:05 PM permalink
There's a guy where I play that frequently throws in 4 purple chips and hops the hardways for $500 each. I've seen it hit, he gets paid 13K or whatever and then he presses it to $1,000 on each hardway netting him a cool 39 grand
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:50:20 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

There's a guy where I play that frequently throws in 4 purple chips and hops the hardways for $500 each. I've seen it hit, he gets paid 13K or whatever and then he presses it to $1,000 on each hardway netting him a cool 39 grand



You have seen him win and get paid the $39,000.usd? A hopping hard way bet of $1000.usd would exceed the limits in many joints?
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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May 28th, 2015 at 11:37:31 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

You have seen him win and get paid the $39,000.usd? A hopping hard way bet of $1000.usd would exceed the limits in many joints?



He gets paid $13,000 on the first hit I believe and then after he presses it he gets $26,000 for a $39,000 total. At Caesars $10,000 is the maximum bet with $30,000 being the maximum payout
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 29th, 2015 at 2:31:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy.



I think it is mathematically valid to say it gives you the best chance of winning the bet in -EV , and the worst for +EV

In my own experience, -EV, it seems the best chance to win and the best way to put your bankroll at risk too
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:06:13 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

He gets paid $13,000 on the first hit I believe and then after he presses it he gets $26,000 for a $39,000 total. At Caesars $10,000 is the maximum bet with $30,000 being the maximum payout



$10,000.usd is the maximum on the pass or don't pass line? What a bunch of pussy's. That could not be true in Baccarat? or for that matter, Black Jack??
Dicenor33
Dicenor33
Joined: Aug 28, 2013
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:09:56 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not so sure this strategy is the worst possible strategy. Especially if he quits soon afterwards. People fool themselves into thinking they are playing craps "the proper/smarter way." They pat themselves on the back, meanwhile they spend hours and hours at -EV. Even the guys who supposedly play craps "the proper way" rarely stick to it. They get board and start making worst bets or pumping up their action. Who here that often plays craps hasn't done this?

This guy is exposing his money to a higher HA but for far less time.

You can claim longer entertainment value for "smart play", I'm certain the guy who just hit for 15k will no doubt get some entertainment value. Hell he may buy some fun toy for himself or pay off his car.

It's a great point. You will loose your shirt if you can not stop at some point. Knowing that you are making "a bad" bet automatically allows you to quit, because you "know" it's a bad bet.
Dicenor33
Dicenor33
Joined: Aug 28, 2013
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May 29th, 2015 at 5:23:48 AM permalink
Let's put it a different way, it's easier to get addicted when exposing the low HE. "I play for fun" is a typical answer of slot machine players, because they came to loose, not to win. Grandmas are BETTER players, because they will loose less over their lifetime of visiting the casinos
spr1000
spr1000
Joined: Oct 24, 2014
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June 1st, 2015 at 3:51:00 PM permalink
Great story man! That's beauty of playing craps. No other game table in the casino will other players tip you if they win it big. It's almost as if you're a stockbroker when you shoot the dice. Making people money on their investments.

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