Thread Rating:

guitarmandp
guitarmandp
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 187
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 8:10:55 AM permalink
I saw this player shoot from the don't. He had a $4,000 don't pass bet and he hopped the 7's for $396 and had a $90 yo to hedge the come out roll. Anyways point is 6 and I guess he didn't feel comfortable shooting from the donts with the point being 6 so he took his $4,000 don't pass bet off and he replaced it with $100 on the passline and $10,000 odds. He 7'd out immediately.

It's bad enough when I see somebody say "no action" when a 6 rolls on the don't come for $10 but why would you take a $4,000 don't bet down especially after you paid almost $500 to survive the come out roll?
bushman
bushman
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 183
Joined: Feb 17, 2010
February 26th, 2015 at 8:20:46 AM permalink
You should have offered to buy some of his action.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 8:21:54 AM permalink
Betting the "Don't" demonstrates a more sophisticated level of play than average. I suspect this is a strategy that he feels comfortable with. Was the amount an unusually large wager for the player?

I don't see alot of darkside players, but when I do, taking down a don't pass line bets when the point is 6 or 8 is not that uncommon.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 8:27:12 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

taking down a don't pass line bets when the point is 6 or 8 is not that uncommon.



I saw someone do this at Cherokee.

to me it is the ultimate in following superstition/hunch and not caring about the math; I have to believe most who do it know that the math is against making the move, but are snakebit by the 6 and 8 getting rolled so much.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 8:44:56 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I saw someone do this at Cherokee.

to me it is the ultimate in following superstition/hunch and not caring about the math; I have to believe most who do it know that the math is against making the move, but are snakebit by the 6 and 8 getting rolled so much.



While it makes me cringe, it is their money to play the way they want. As long as they are not telling me how to bet, I'm happy to let them be. Mathwise, it's five ways to lose vs. six ways to win. I can understand the sweat.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
February 26th, 2015 at 9:43:32 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I saw this player shoot from the don't.

a rare breed
Quote: guitarmandp

He

figures
Quote: guitarmandp

had a $4,000 don't pass bet and he hopped the 7's for $396 and had a $90 yo to hedge the come out roll.

what color shoes was he wearing as this really matters in actual playing to win
Quote: guitarmandp

Anyways point is 6 and I guess he didn't feel comfortable shooting from the donts with the point being 6

you should have asked him
why so shy?
Quote: guitarmandp

It's bad enough when I see somebody say "no action"

why is it
bad enough
when someone plays a certain way with their money?

why you care?
bad vibes??
explain, please???

ROAR!

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 876
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
February 26th, 2015 at 9:48:56 AM permalink
This is such a stupid question I can't even believe I am asking it, but I've never played from the don't pass line. So if I'm playing don't pass, and the point is 6 or 8 I can remove my bet? I know this is not possible on a pass line bet... But I assume the house allows it to be removed because there is a better chance of don't pass winning after the point is established?
mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
February 26th, 2015 at 10:07:09 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Betting the "Don't" demonstrates a more sophisticated level of play than average.

haha
say it isnt so

and shooting from the dont is even more sophisticated than being sophisticated?

and by average
you are really trying to say betting the right way
and not the wrong way

well,
as an ex dont pass player (dpass)
I know I could lower my $25 dpass bet after a point of 8 was established
at times I lowered it down to $10, but was told I could not increase it back up to what it was if I changed my mind (as I did often)
but could lay the odds instead (bet more to win less - lay)
that at first was confusing until the light switch went up and I got it.

dpass can also be taken down but can not be put back up until the next come out roll too

I also understand you can not move a dcome bet from one number to another as you can with a Lay bet or a place bet

there is a sweet level of sophisticated play on the "Don't"
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5600
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 10:13:51 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Betting the "Don't" demonstrates a more sophisticated level of play than average...


Using this story alone as an example, I disagree. A lot of people whom are betting the don't, don't understand how it works much past "I've been losing on the pass all night, let me try this other way. I win on the 7 out now, right???"

Taking "no action" or pulling your don't pass bet on any number (let alone 6 or 8) shows a complete misunderstanding of the mathematics behind the game. It is quite possibly one of the dumbest decisions you could make when playing the don'ts. You literally take your bet which is a favorite, remove it, and subject your money to the most likely losing outcome again (when taking "no action").
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 11:08:43 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Using this story alone as an example, I disagree. A lot of people whom are betting the don't, don't understand how it works much past "I've been losing on the pass all night, let me try this other way. I win on the 7 out now, right???"

Taking "no action" or pulling your don't pass bet on any number (let alone 6 or 8) shows a complete misunderstanding of the mathematics behind the game. It is quite possibly one of the dumbest decisions you could make when playing the don'ts. You literally take your bet which is a favorite, remove it, and subject your money to the most likely losing outcome again (when taking "no action").



If you use this story alone as an example, you would have to agree that this player was one of those that "understand(s) how it works". Now, the actions may be questionable from the math side, but he knew enough about the game to know that he was allowed to take down a Don't Pass bet, place the point, and back it with odds. This was not a newbie. I would call him more "sophisticated" than average (but not "wise", based on pulling down bets with a positive player edge).

I find most players who play the don't are doing so because they understand what they are doing. The "average" player will go with the crowd and bet with the shooter. The "average" Darksider knows that they are not making friends with their action. Whether they are committed to the math enough to consistently fight the variance is a different story. I wouldn't call him "dumb", I'd characterize it more as "scared".
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 11:13:08 AM permalink
the first time I encountered the idea of it, a dealer encouraged it. So I guess there could be players who learn it from the dealers and think it is a smart move.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 11:23:57 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the first time I encountered the idea of it, a dealer encouraged it. So I guess there could be players who learn it from the dealers and think it is a smart move.

Are you referring to taking down a "Don't Pass" line bet after the point is established?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 11:27:06 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Are you referring to taking down a "Don't Pass" line bet after the point is established?



yes

dealer used the "want no action?" question as if, hey, everybody does that. Of course maybe she was used to just that.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5600
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 11:32:08 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If you use this story alone as an example, you would have to agree that this player was one of those that "understand(s) how it works". Now, the actions may be questionable from the math side, but he knew enough about the game to know that he was allowed to take down a Don't Pass bet, place the point, and back it with odds. This was not a newbie. I would call him more "sophisticated" than average (but not "wise", based on pulling down bets with a positive player edge).

I find most players who play the don't are doing so because they understand what they are doing. The "average" player will go with the crowd and bet with the shooter. The "average" Darksider knows that they are not making friends with their action. Whether they are committed to the math enough to consistently fight the variance is a different story. I wouldn't call him "dumb", I'd characterize it more as "scared".


While I feel you have a good point in there... I still consider what this player did to be a "dumb" move that shows he's worse than a 'newbie' whom would have let his don't pass ride. There's still yet a difference in knowing you "can" call no action, and that you never "want" to call no action. Comparing him to someone whom doesn't know how to play craps at all, sure you can call him sophisticated... but that's like saying someone who only knows how to check their e-mail is a sophisticated computer user over an infant that can't click the mouse... You can technically say it, but in no real life context does it really make sense to call that person a "sophisticated" computer user in any way. In the reality and standards of the game, and this forum, the guy made a total bonehead play taking his DP down.

Quote: odiousgambit

yes

dealer used the "want no action?" question as if, hey, everybody does that. Of course maybe she was used to just that.


This is in my craps career too... When I FIRST started playing, the first couple times I played from the don'ts the dealers (whom realized I was 'new' to the don'ts) tried to get me to take no action on 6's and 8's. I did the first time and second time ever, while I thought it over. Then I said "Isn't a 7 still more likely?" to which they usually replied "Well, yeah, but 6 and 8 are close!" Craps dealers are sharp people, usually... Anytime I hear one of them offer no action I immediately speak up to the player to let them know that it's a bad idea, and why. The dealers that promote that, in my opinion, are "house" jerks.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 11:35:19 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

yes

dealer used the "want no action?" question as if, hey, everybody does that. Of course maybe she was used to just that.

It's like selling a hardway I suppose, encouraging the players to make moves advantageous to the house. Too bad for the player who listens.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
bushman
bushman
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 183
Joined: Feb 17, 2010
February 26th, 2015 at 11:55:28 AM permalink
When I first started out playing craps I was solely a DP/DC ponzer guy. I was a kid of 21/22, so I thought, hey, that's all about the math. Grinded away small winnings. I remember playing at the Lady Luck LV and getting my DP set, then two DCs. One of the DCs was a 6. I threw money down to lay odds, the dealer proclaims, very loudly, "No action on the 6!" and swipes my bet off the layout. Now, I am just a kid, and never heard it yelled before. Hey, I knew what was "good" for me. Never, ever take down a Don't bet. Worse part is, and I didn't know what to do at the time, nor that I could speak up...Never returned that 5$ chip. Suffice to say, after grinding out my 50-60 bucks, and thinking about it, I realized the guy cheated me. I never returned to the Lady Luck to gamble again. Maybe, just maybe, that is why they went in the tank. I guess I can tell myself that. Don't cheat bushman!
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 12:02:27 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

The dealers that promote that, in my opinion, are "house" jerks.


Quote: Ayecarumba

It's like selling a hardway I suppose, encouraging the players to make moves advantageous to the house. Too bad for the player who listens.



I've mentioned it before and I'll say it again. There's a decent chance the dealers are instructed (read: ordered) by management to sell these options to players. A dealer peddling the side bets is not a reflection on the dealer. I'd almost guarantee that just about any dealer that said to a player "Don't bet the hardways" would find themselves in the shift office in two seconds flat.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5600
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 12:04:16 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

I've mentioned it before and I'll say it again. There's a decent chance the dealers are instructed (read: ordered) by management to sell these options to players. A dealer peddling the side bets is not a reflection on the dealer. I'd almost guarantee that just about any dealer that said to a player "Don't bet the hardways" would find themselves in the shift office in two seconds flat.


Well I'd still find that hard to believe. Other than my first few times playing from the don'ts (where it looked like I didn't know what I was doing) I've never had a dealer ask me if I wanted "no action" on my DP or DC's (in dozens and dozens of casinos across the country)... I've had dealers offer me other "tips," but not taking "no action." So by your thoughts that would mean a LOT of dealers aren't following policy to offer me the no action.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 12:18:30 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Well I'd still find that hard to believe. Other than my first few times playing from the don'ts (where it looked like I didn't know what I was doing) I've never had a dealer ask me if I wanted "no action" on my DP or DC's (in dozens and dozens of casinos across the country)... I've had dealers offer me other "tips," but not taking "no action." So by your thoughts that would mean a LOT of dealers aren't following policy to offer me the no action.



Offering no action is probably an extreme example. I'm speaking more to Ayecarumba's post about the hardways. My overall point is that if a dealer offered me an option like that, my first negative thought is going to be on the management, not that dealer. If that dealer winds up being the only one in that house to offer it, then you may be right.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 876
Joined: Apr 2, 2012
February 26th, 2015 at 12:34:06 PM permalink
I feel like this must not be very common. I've played craps dozens of times and have never heard of either of those DP/DC bets being taken down or no action.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 1:03:12 PM permalink
Quote: PBguy

You can take down a DP bet at any time.



you can take down any bet except the pass once in action, and the come once it has traveled IIRC.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5600
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 1:14:54 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

I feel like this must not be very common. I've played craps dozens of times and have never heard of either of those DP/DC bets being taken down or no action.


It's uncommon because the player is throwing away an advantage at that point. Once a point is established for your DP or your DC... Your bet becomes the favorite to win. The reason the house has an edge on the money is on the "come out roll" of either the DP or the DC, it loses to a 7 (which of course is the most likely outcome). After you 'survive' the come out roll, the 7 is the most likely number and you're getting paid 1-1 on your DP/DC bet. Thus, you're more than a 1-1 favorite and yet you're still getting paid 1-1... an advantageous situation. Pulling your bet (from any number) at this point is literally just saying "I don't want an advantage, no thanks."

It's not very common because most craps players know it's a total sucker play. In my experience dealers only offer it to newbie don't pass/come players whom don't know any better (i.e. in my eyes they're picking on the newbies and pretending to be their friend offering good advice when really they're just getting a bigger house edge on them).

You should NEVER take "no action" or pull down a DP/DC bet once its point has been established.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Aussie
Aussie
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 415
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 4:35:19 PM permalink
Ignoring the fact that taking the dont bet down after the point is established is a dumb move in the first place, if you were so dead sure you wanted to pull it down why wouldn't you place the point and lock in a profit? In the original example place the point for $3690 and lock in $310 profit on the 7-out and $305 profit on the made point.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
February 26th, 2015 at 5:14:03 PM permalink
Oopsies didn't mean to flag ausssies post. That button should really get moved or something.


Anyway, most of the time dealers ask a player if they want "no action" is because that player has already been asking for no action. And moving the DC bet is the first thing they do (after the field). Oftentimes people act like idiots and say "no action" after dealer has moved the DC and dealer has to do more work because of it. I'm sure there are extreme cases where a dealer may be promoting it....but....
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 6:26:50 PM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Ignoring the fact that taking the dont bet down after the point is established is a dumb move in the first place, if you were so dead sure you wanted to pull it down why wouldn't you place the point and lock in a profit? In the original example place the point for $3690 and lock in $310 profit on the 7-out and $305 profit on the made point.



A sophisticated play! Too bad the player had already burned almost $500 hedging the come out roll. But still...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Venthus
Venthus
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1125
Joined: Dec 10, 2012
February 26th, 2015 at 7:10:30 PM permalink
So he spent 500 hedging to just back out, instead of taking the guaranteed recoup/win (depending how much was placed and the end result). Huh.

Based on people's experience, do places let you take odds from other people (or DC/DP) if they don't want it? I've only done it once and nobody seemed to notice or care, but I can't picture that being something they'd like to encourage. It's like filling in somebody's double-for-less.
teddys
teddys
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 5527
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
February 26th, 2015 at 9:12:10 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I saw this player shoot from the don't. He had a $4,000 don't pass bet and he hopped the 7's for $396 and had a $90 yo to hedge the come out roll. Anyways point is 6 and I guess he didn't feel comfortable shooting from the donts with the point being 6 so he took his $4,000 don't pass bet off and he replaced it with $100 on the passline and $10,000 odds. He 7'd out immediately.

This is the kind of player casinos send limos for and hosts crawl over each other trying to get to first.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
  • Threads: 167
  • Posts: 5937
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
February 27th, 2015 at 3:53:11 AM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

This is such a stupid question I can't even believe I am asking it, but I've never played from the don't pass line. So if I'm playing don't pass, and the point is 6 or 8 I can remove my bet? I know this is not possible on a pass line bet... But I assume the house allows it to be removed because there is a better chance of don't pass winning after the point is established?



Yes you can remove a darkside bet, and yes the house allows it because there is a better chance that the don't player will win after a point is established.
mds
mds
  • Threads: 50
  • Posts: 261
Joined: Sep 24, 2013
February 27th, 2015 at 7:32:53 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I saw this player shoot from the don't. He had a $4,000 don't pass bet and he hopped the 7's for $396 and had a $90 yo to hedge the come out roll. Anyways point is 6 and I guess he didn't feel comfortable shooting from the donts with the point being 6 so he took his $4,000 don't pass bet off and he replaced it with $100 on the passline and $10,000 odds. He 7'd out immediately.

It's bad enough when I see somebody say "no action" when a 6 rolls on the don't come for $10 but why would you take a $4,000 don't bet down especially after you paid almost $500 to survive the come out roll?



I play the don't 98% of the time. First, there are exceptions but most casinos have a table max of 5k-6k in odds. There are exceptions. So I bet 1000 on the don't and up to the 6k in odds. I don't care which number comes out 4,5,6, or 8! I will never take my bet down as the odds are now in my favor! When do you get a chance to have that? Unless you are counter at BJ. Superstitions, feelings, shooter is wearing a orange hat means nothing or even if it is a first time shooter. THE DICE DONT HAVE EYES OR EARS.. This guy taking down that bet just means to me he isn't really gambling he is trying to show off. Yes, to answer your question, he knows the rules but far from a knowledgeable/smart player. But we all gamble knowing we are playing a -EV game so any of us smart? I also think im missing something or just too tired this morning? I understand how he can take his money down from the don't and how he can then put 100 on the pass but how can he at the same time put 10k in odds? Or was it the next come out roll? that would make sense and I understand that bet and respect it. Again where can you bet 100-10,000?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 27th, 2015 at 9:18:11 AM permalink
I think the Horseshoe's still offer 100x odds
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
February 27th, 2015 at 9:49:02 AM permalink
I have played in a number of casinos, and when I do play the dark side, it is usually as a DC player. I have had a number of dealers ask me if I wanted to leave my bet on the DC when a 6 or 8 rolled. I generally respond with, "Why would I, I have the edge now?" Most of the dealers look at me and say, "You would not believe how many people don't seem to understand that." I
Of course, invariably, the number gets rolled, and the dealer gives me a look as my bet goes into the working stack.

While there may be one or two jerk dealers telling players to not travel their bets, I think it is more the dealers really want to see the players win. And knowing that the 6 and 8 are almost coin flips, they think they are trying to help the player get a better number (4,5,9,10). But I suspect many of those same dealers don't really understand how big of an underdog the player is on the come out roll, and by teaching the player 'no action', they are significantly increasing the amount exposed to come out roll losses.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
February 27th, 2015 at 10:28:40 AM permalink
Someone help me understand something here since I don't play craps much.

Once it is given that you have survived the come-out roll, your DP bet has a positive EV, right? Now if you lay the odds on that, which has EV of precisely 0, wouldn't that actually lower your combined edge? If so, why would you ever lay the odds on a DP bet? Unless it's to hedge against future come-out rolls?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
February 27th, 2015 at 10:41:56 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Someone help me understand something here since I don't play craps much.

Once it is given that you have survived the come-out roll, your DP bet has a positive EV, right? Now if you lay the odds on that, which has EV of precisely 0, wouldn't that actually lower your combined edge? If so, why would you ever lay the odds on a DP bet? Unless it's to hedge against future come-out rolls?



"Surviving" the come-out roll is a pre-cursor to having the opportunity to lay the odds on the DP. Since most players wager a small amount to get the opportunity, laying odds is a chance to increase the amount won in a positive EV situation. Yes, the combined edge is lower, but it is still positive. due to the initial line bet.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
February 27th, 2015 at 10:46:46 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

"Surviving" the come-out roll is a pre-cursor to having the opportunity to lay the odds on the DP. Since most players wager a small amount to get the opportunity, laying odds is a chance to increase the amount won in a positive EV situation. Yes, the combined edge is lower, but it is still positive. due to the initial line bet.


Ok. Makes sense. Thanks.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
February 27th, 2015 at 10:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Once it is given that you have survived the come-out roll, your DP bet has a positive EV, right? Now if you lay the odds on that, which has EV of precisely 0, wouldn't that actually lower your combined edge? If so, why would you ever lay the odds on a DP bet? Unless it's to hedge against future come-out rolls?

the combined edge is lower but it is over a LARGER average bet

the combined EV remains the same
X + 0 = X

this has been mentioned countless times before and even the Wizard commented on this too
in an Ask the Wizard

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 27th, 2015 at 12:33:51 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

why would you ever lay the odds on a DP bet?



as for this part of it:

sometimes you run into players or dealers adamant about the idea you are diluting a good bet [a canard]

if you were able to put the bet darkside without penalty, you'd be diluting a +EV bet. Yes, you'd be better off having put the entire amount contemplated on the paying-even-money-when-more-probable-to-win number. But you can't put this kind of bet, and the entire amount is at normal risk. To make a portion at fair odds now lowers the overall HE [edits]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
  • Jump to: