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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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November 6th, 2017 at 3:34:50 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

then why do you think Dark is better if not the math?



the math is minimal and a little misleading, as the amount of action you are allowed on the dark side odds bet is higher

as wizard puts it, " I think that makes the don't pass look deceptively significantly better. The main reason it is less is the odds multiple is relative to your bet taking odds, and [relative to ] the win when laying odds." my edit in brackets

per already cited link

what he means I think is that in order to make things simple as far as payout, more is allowed on the free odds, which after all affect variance but not EV
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Nov 7, 2017
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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November 6th, 2017 at 4:20:25 PM permalink
Once you get under 10 basis points for a table game I think you’re splitting hairs. Just do the math ... playing $10 on the pass line costs you 25 cents per hour more than playing the don’t pass line assuming 50 bets per hour, no matter how you make your odds bets.

25 cents is nothing regardless of how the percentages come out on combined odds bets.
CAD2
CAD2
Joined: Dec 18, 2017
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December 20th, 2017 at 6:58:15 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


not all craps games offered in every casino in the world uses dice. many here in CA use cards, and that offers +EV for those that like +EV

Sally



Craps involves standardized dice on a standardized "Craps" table.

What you described are card games that simulate Craps. And E-Craps are slot machines that simulate Craps.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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December 20th, 2017 at 7:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: CAD2

Craps involves standardized dice on a standardized "Craps" table.

What you described are card games that simulate Craps. And E-Craps are slot machines that simulate Craps.



Please explain your last point.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
CAD2
CAD2
Joined: Dec 18, 2017
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December 20th, 2017 at 7:46:31 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Please explain your last point.



E-Craps are electro-mechanical devices aka slot machines to simulate the game of Craps just like there are electro-mechanical devices (also slot machines) to simulate the game of Roulette.

The State of California does not allow the game of Craps (or Roulette) in casinos so games were created to simulate Craps (or Roulette).

To call E-Craps the same as Craps is disingenuous and is equally disingenuous to call +EV card Craps as Craps.
CAD2
CAD2
Joined: Dec 18, 2017
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December 20th, 2017 at 8:11:49 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

when the point established is a 4 or 10
it has a 66.67% chance of losing
I am slightly over 73% lifetime winning me Lay4 or Lay10 bets

...

Lay bets always win on any 7 where the
dpass and dcome can win or lose on a 7

I have way more fun making Lay bets
luck has nothing to do with that
Sally



I find your results hard to believe for the game of Craps (with dice), especially when you quoted the 73% number -- 73% is just about 3 out of 4.

I took a course in college where we spent the whole semester on stochastic calculus. The professor would start each class with: Given a mean of mu, a std dev of sigma, and Brownian motion, it can be shown... Then we spent the rest of the class deriving the proof. As a result, I have a good sense of random events or results.

If you apply logic, the law of large numbers tells us that in the game of Craps (with dice), you will be a net loser (over time) on the Lay 4 or Lay 10 bet due to about a 2.4% house edge. That house edge is a gravitational force that is present on every roll.

Earlier in this thread, you mentioned you played +EV card Craps, a game that simulates Craps. +EV card Craps isn't Craps due the house edge changing on each "roll" due to dependent events (in the real Craps game, the house edge is immutable). So if you made money from +EV card Craps, then that makes sense since it's +EV.

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