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NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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August 29th, 2014 at 2:43:33 PM permalink
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HotBlonde
HotBlonde
Joined: Feb 8, 2011
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August 29th, 2014 at 2:51:22 PM permalink
I'd choose blackjack!!
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

Quote: RS

Quote: NowTheSerpent

You would win $35 and lose $37, so the HE = -2/38 = -1/19 = -5.26% as usual. If you bet $2 across 0/00, only one can hit for $35, the other would lose. In 38 results, you'd lose $2 36 times and win $34 twice, so your return would be ($34*2 - $2*36)/($2*38) = -4/76 = -1/19 = -5.26% once again.



You're using someone else's money....



OK. Their EV = -5.26%, but then I couldn't care less about someone else's money.



Re-read the OP. You should care about someone else's money. It can be the difference in getting 92% of the free bet money or just like 50%.

And the casino's EV is about -92%. Are you not reading what I've been writing?
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:55:50 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Not quite true.

Say you have $38. If you had one shot and bet every number straight up, you'd get paid $35 when a number hit and you'd lose the original wager (ie: one shot). If you bet each of the numbers $2 at a time on the in-between-line (ie: $2 on 0/00 split), you'd get paid $34 and lose the original wager.

If you do get to keep the chips, then playing the lowest HE game would probably be best.



I didn't say the result would always be the same; I said the EV would always be the same. This simple truth is why no betting system used in a negative EV game will ever produce a positive outcome: all you can do is rearrange the negative results.
RS
RS
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August 29th, 2014 at 4:40:24 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

I didn't say the result would always be the same; I said the EV would always be the same. This simple truth is why no betting system used in a negative EV game will ever produce a positive outcome: all you can do is rearrange the negative results.



If you're using your own money, the EV is the same. But if the money is being treated as "free bet" money, then no, the EV is not the same.
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
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August 29th, 2014 at 9:34:39 PM permalink
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RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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August 29th, 2014 at 10:54:05 PM permalink
^ Accidentally flagged the post, sorry admins.

Anyway, free bets that are taken on a win, the HE is not the most important factor. Actually, it's not really even a factor. I'll try this one more time:

If you bet on BLACK, you get 18 ways to win 1 unit and 20 ways to lose (or rather, nothing happens since it's not actually your money). If you bet 0 straight up, you have 1 chance to win 35 units, and 37 ways for nothing to happen (you lose it).

On even money bets, the return is 18/38. For betting straight up, the return is 35/38. There's clearly a difference.

Are you getting a 35/38 return on your free bet BJ wagers?

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