NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
• Posts: 417
August 29th, 2014 at 2:43:33 PM permalink
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HotBlonde
Joined: Feb 8, 2011
• Posts: 1612
August 29th, 2014 at 2:51:22 PM permalink
I'd choose blackjack!!
OFFICIALLY and justifiably reclaimed my title as SuperHotBlonde!
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
August 29th, 2014 at 3:26:42 PM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

Quote: RS

Quote: NowTheSerpent

You would win \$35 and lose \$37, so the HE = -2/38 = -1/19 = -5.26% as usual. If you bet \$2 across 0/00, only one can hit for \$35, the other would lose. In 38 results, you'd lose \$2 36 times and win \$34 twice, so your return would be (\$34*2 - \$2*36)/(\$2*38) = -4/76 = -1/19 = -5.26% once again.

You're using someone else's money....

OK. Their EV = -5.26%, but then I couldn't care less about someone else's money.

Re-read the OP. You should care about someone else's money. It can be the difference in getting 92% of the free bet money or just like 50%.

And the casino's EV is about -92%. Are you not reading what I've been writing?
Eaglesnest
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
• Posts: 125
August 29th, 2014 at 3:55:50 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Not quite true.

Say you have \$38. If you had one shot and bet every number straight up, you'd get paid \$35 when a number hit and you'd lose the original wager (ie: one shot). If you bet each of the numbers \$2 at a time on the in-between-line (ie: \$2 on 0/00 split), you'd get paid \$34 and lose the original wager.

If you do get to keep the chips, then playing the lowest HE game would probably be best.

I didn't say the result would always be the same; I said the EV would always be the same. This simple truth is why no betting system used in a negative EV game will ever produce a positive outcome: all you can do is rearrange the negative results.
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
August 29th, 2014 at 4:40:24 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

I didn't say the result would always be the same; I said the EV would always be the same. This simple truth is why no betting system used in a negative EV game will ever produce a positive outcome: all you can do is rearrange the negative results.

If you're using your own money, the EV is the same. But if the money is being treated as "free bet" money, then no, the EV is not the same.
NowTheSerpent
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
• Posts: 417
August 29th, 2014 at 9:34:39 PM permalink
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RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014