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gamglingwoman
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 5:12:57 AM permalink
The most discussed statistical analysis of Craps is the HE of Pass bets, that and other important ones may be:

  • The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,
  • The HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,
  • The average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,
  • The only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,
  • The average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,
  • The HE of Place 6 and Place 8 being lowest at 1.52% - is there a significant way to compare different Place bets, i.e. 7:6 times 1.52% vs 9:5 times 6.67% ?

What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?
odiousgambit
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August 21st, 2014 at 5:27:09 AM permalink
Quote: gamglingwoman

What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?



First thread and first post! Guys, be nice!

Nice guy failure #1 for me: pointing out that you probably misspelled your user name [or are you coining a new word?] Sorry, couldnt resist asking that!

Quote:

What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?



Well, fun at the table! And recently I think fun ends for me when bet combination HE is not discussed!!! [g] Not much sign of that here, so thank you!

But that last bit, can you clarify what you are asking?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 5:33:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: gamglingwoman

What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?



First thread and first post! Guys, be nice!

Nice guy failure #1 for me: pointing out that you probably misspelled your user name [or are you coining a new word?] Sorry, couldnt resist asking that!



you are right about both things ... very scary to write something for the first time and hit "post"
YES, I made a typo on my screen name (but maybe it will become a new word?), kinda embarassing, but oh well.
Thank you for being my first response.
last bit, what is the most important statisctic AND is it because it has to do with profit or have to do with fun?
SOOPOO
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August 21st, 2014 at 5:38:20 AM permalink
For me it is the low house edge AND high variance when you bet the pass line and take full odds. I have fun knowing I have just slightly under a 50% chance of doubling up before going broke......
odiousgambit
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August 21st, 2014 at 5:56:40 AM permalink
Quote: gamglingwoman

last bit, what is the most important statisctic AND is it because it has to do with profit or have to do with fun?



fun, and I agree with Soopoo that math about high variance and low HE combined is the most important. Not much to dwell on though. And I am not an advocate of place betting, but I don't get heartburn if someone does advocate it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:09:31 AM permalink
Gamblingwoman,

Have we met? PM me, please.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
chickenman
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:11:18 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Gamblingwoman

Disable your spell checker :-0
beachbumbabs
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:13:06 AM permalink
Quote: chickenman

Disable your spell checker :-0



Lol...I debated that; she said she had misspelled it, so I went with what she meant, not what she wrote. Coin flip; grammar won.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
chickenman
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:21:24 AM permalink
Maybe she wanted to type "ganglingwoman" j/k
FleaStiff
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:40:06 AM permalink
Quote: gamglingwoman

The most discussed statistical analysis of Craps is the HE of Pass bets, that and other important ones may be:

  • The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,
  • The HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,
  • The average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,
  • The only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,
  • The average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,
  • The HE of Place 6 and Place 8 being lowest at 1.52% - is there a significant way to compare different Place bets, i.e. 7:6 times 1.52% vs 9:5 times 6.67% ?

What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps (ones relating to profit at the table, or fun at the table) ?


Hello, GamblingWoman. Welcome.

I guess alot depends not so much on the statistics themselves but upon the personal value that you want to place on them.

Lets just add a totally concocted statistic: Most craps tables are oriented North and South but 8 percent are oriented East to West.

If you have some special geographical desires then and only then would this be at all meaningful to you.

There are several ways to play craps: Go For Broke, Go for long time at table, Go for numerous small losses but Great Wins, Go for wins but avoid losses.

The Grinder who plays at a five dollar table and never makes a Pass Line bet other than 5.00 may really be enjoying himself but the crew are laughing at him.

The guy who presses his bets at least gets his bets up higher and sometimes he is really making some money until he hears the dreaded Seven Out.

So until you really define your objectives no one can tell you what the most relevant statistics are.

Right and Wrong are pretty much the same ... teensy weensy difference in house edge but difference in bankroll requirements too.
With odds and Without Odds are said to be the same but I don't believe it.

So what I mean is: Let us know what your personal preferences are .. even Grinders can have fun and they spend the most time at the table, but a Grinder will NEVER have all the employees lined up to shake hands with the new owner of the casino.
dicesitter
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August 21st, 2014 at 6:42:01 AM permalink
ganglingwoman





Couple of things, first there is no way the average roll is 8.5 unless you count
multiple come out rolls such as 7 7 3 and then a pass number.


You have asked what statistical analysis is the most important when it comes to craps..... that is easy
yet has no prenetration in the minds of most players..........the ratio of bets you make and hit.

The odds on the pass line dont mean a thing if no one has hit one for an hour, you place the 6 & 8
and the shooter hits 3 9's and a 7, how much did you lose, 1.52% or 100%

the vast majority of craps players dont think it makes any difference to pay attention to the table
or what the dice have been showing. But then again, Mustangsally is the only person on here that
has said she wins at craps.... maybe there is a relationship to not paying attention and losing?????

dicesetter
beachbumbabs
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August 21st, 2014 at 7:06:21 AM permalink
Gamblingwoman,

It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!

dice,

I stayed out of it when the question came up, but I can say, after 7 craps sessions, I am a lifetime winner.

1. -130 (100 loss, and 30 "tuition"): NCL Epic, May 2013
2. -80 WoV w/ Miplet, Harrah's LV Sept 2013 (don't remember tipping; maybe a little on the pass line)
3. +1200 Harrah's LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips) 4 point FB x 3
4. -130 Rio LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips)
5. +440 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips) A/T/S x2
6. -140 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips)
7. +300 California w/SOOPOO, Mr.V, Tanko, A&8, others April 2014 (after tips)

1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.

Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DeMango
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August 21st, 2014 at 7:28:37 AM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

ganglingwoman





Couple of things, first there is no way the average roll is 8.5

dicesetter



Okay Gambling Woman here is a cold hard fact: You are right! There is a website chock full of facts about craps. The site is Wizard of Odds, there is a link at the bottom of this page. Digging to the bottom of the craps pages, we find the following quote; "The mean number of rolls per shooter is 8.525510. "

Lesson learned, some people don't know jack!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Sonny44
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August 21st, 2014 at 7:38:10 AM permalink
Gamblingwoman, I'd say that you've left out the most important statistic (if it is one) of all: The "pyramid" showing ways each number on a pair of dice can appear. As someone here has already said, when the 7 shows, HE and all else doesn't matter. You lose 100%. Knowing which numbers carry the most risk is essential, I think, in how you choose your bets.

Next to that, of course, is HE. Avoid high HE bets and play low HE bets. Of course, the low HE bets (PL, Place 6/8, etc.) pay less than the high HE bets. It's all in how quickly/slowly you want to win or lose. Most of the math I see on this board goes out the window when I'm standing at a live table. Maybe that's my fault. I don't know.

Nevertheless, welcome to the board.
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:25:57 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Gamblingwoman,

Have we met? PM me, please.


Yes, last year, "Hi". Jim said he did.
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:27:23 AM permalink
Quote: chickenman

Maybe she wanted to type "ganglingwoman" j/k


a typo, but it will show who uses spell checker lol
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Hello, GamblingWoman. Welcome.

So what I mean is: Let us know what your personal preferences are ..



thanks for the welcoming

playing for fun, I don't worry too much about betting the "best" bets, just the fun ones. My husband taught me, and he was telling me what to bet at the start, but now he lets me just have fun. I win about much money as he does anyway.

I think the most important statistic is the fact that Craps has fun people around the table most of the time.
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:38:39 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Gamblingwoman,

It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!

1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.

Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.




Yes, HELLO

I'm not an expert, but i think i am ahead so far too. I may have even played more than you at this point (getting addicted) - lol
i LOVE to be the shooter
gamglingwoman
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:39:59 AM permalink
Quote: Sonny44

Nevertheless, welcome to the board.



thank you
dicesitter
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August 21st, 2014 at 8:45:45 AM permalink
Wrong



The average roll after a point is set is not 8.5 rolls, if that were true we would all be rich.
Be that as it may, if you want to beleive that, go for it.

Donald Catlin

give it another try; the 8.5 figure is correct. Here is a hint. Calculate the expected number of rolls for a Pass Line decision and the number of Pass Line decisions per seven-out. The total is 8.5 give or take.

But as i indicated 8.5 also includes expected come out roll or rolls.

6 or slightly less is the point of mean or average after the point has been set.

This is no big deal, except if ganglingwoman is new to craps she should be told what is
reasonable for a roll not expect what is not. An SRR of 8.5 would be god like.

dicesetter
mustangsally
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August 21st, 2014 at 9:26:20 AM permalink
others have welcomed you here
Hi
I have no opinion to your question
"What statisticical analysis is the most important when it comes to Craps?"

I see playing Craps = fun
winning money while playing Craps = more fun

Quote: gamglingwoman

The most discussed statistical analysis of Craps is the HE of Pass bets, that and other important ones may be:

This is not totally correct
my opinion,
The expected value (EV) is also the most discussed statistical analysis of Craps for Pass bets and Come bets

But EV by most, in my opinion,
is treated as a word to never to be spoken or written about unless you are a craps expert
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/19296-craps-expert-list/#post388327
Quote: gamglingwoman

  • The HE of a Pass bet at 1.41% vs a Don;t Pass bet at 1.36%,

neither of these values are correct in my opinion
why do you think they are correct?
and if they are to be correct, what exactly do the values mean?
Quote: gamglingwoman

  • The HE of a Pass with full 3X-4X-5X odds at 0.37% vs 2X odds at 0.60%,

  • this is absolutely wrong and misleading
    I hope you do not endorse this hogwash

    the house edge of a pass/come never changes.
    (If you think it does, what a lower HE is better over a larger average bet?
    and what is that new average combined wager?
    give me a break Marty!)

    Quote: gamglingwoman

  • The average length of a hand (roll) being 8.5 rolls,

  • is this your opinion or are you stating some one else's opinion?
    I do appreciate reading about others opinions
    Quote: gamglingwoman

  • The only bet that uses true odds as a payout, further analysis - the average true odds used for Pass Odds bets of 1.5:1,

  • this is wrong too. There are other Craps bets that use true odds
    Ahigh, me and he are not craps experts btw, knows of many others
    Quote: gamglingwoman

  • The average number of Points made per shooter being 0.68,

  • thank you for this opinion
    Do you actually believe this?
    what really do you think is the average # of points hit per shooter?

    well, a list of opinions
    which one(s) do you agree with and why?
    how about those you do not agree with and why?

    DS says 8.5 rolls is wrong in a later post
    another opinion that is maybe more true than others

    This forum is filled with opinions (land minds)
    have fun with them all and thank you for sharing

    I do
    (remember when you said this)

    Sally
    I Heart Vi Hart
    mustangsally
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    August 21st, 2014 at 10:04:05 AM permalink
    Quote: dicesitter

    Wrong

    right
    Quote: dicesitter

    The average roll after a point is set is not 8.5 rolls,

    right
    why the observation?

    you do not like come out rolls?
    Ok if yes
    I love come out rolls
    Now I can Lay every number and dare the shooter to roll a winner 7.
    (I have won this 6 way bet the last 3 times in a row. What a streak! I will quit while ahead)


    The average # of point rolls (non come out rolls) per shooter could be interesting in my opinion
    but the average and the median are not the same

    how to continue dicesitter?
    what do you want to see other than 6

    Quote: dicesitter

    "An SRR of 8.5 would be god like."


    My God is not allowed to shoot the dice because she has a SRR of infinity
    (claims to have never ever rolled a 7)

    dicesitter
    tell OP about your DI skills and how you roll more 6s and 8s than expectation to have an advantage over the casino.
    I think you have a thread about it too
    is this it?
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/13034-nice-profit-from-short-rolls/

    Thank you dicesitter for your many unbiased opinions
    you sweet talkin' guy
    Sally
    I Heart Vi Hart
    dicesitter
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    August 21st, 2014 at 10:40:19 AM permalink
    Mustangsally


    I love come out rolls, i make good money on them....but 8.5 is a number that includes those.


    You may have a roll of 8 with a 7,2,7,12,7,3 and then set a point of 8 and then hit a 7 .. so then
    what is your SRR 8 or 1???

    and you lost money on that roll if you were a pass line player, and alot of money if you are
    a pass line player and then go across.

    If one puts much time into the practice of craps, it is important to know what your SRR is
    in terms of how many rolls you average between the setting of a pass number and a 7 out.

    Extending your SRR is not the golden grail of craps, but i would damn sure rather have a 8.5
    SRR than 6.

    If a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5, that means on average
    you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand and that figures out to a 30%
    advantage for the 8.5 guy. So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
    and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.

    In terms of putting my data on here, i learned my lesson from that. That day has come... and
    gone



    Dicesetter
    MidwestAP
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    August 21st, 2014 at 10:41:12 AM permalink
    Quote: beachbumbabs

    Gamblingwoman,

    It IS you! Welcome to the board, and glad you've decided to get involved!

    dice,

    I stayed out of it when the question came up, but I can say, after 7 craps sessions, I am a lifetime winner.

    1. -130 (100 loss, and 30 "tuition"): NCL Epic, May 2013
    2. -80 WoV w/ Miplet, Harrah's LV Sept 2013 (don't remember tipping; maybe a little on the pass line)
    3. +1200 Harrah's LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips) 4 point FB x 3
    4. -130 Rio LV w/friend, April 2014 (after tips)
    5. +440 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips) A/T/S x2
    6. -140 Cosmo w/Doc, April 2014 (after tips)
    7. +300 California w/SOOPOO, Mr.V, Tanko, A&8, others April 2014 (after tips)

    1940-480=1460 to the good. After 1. and 2., I have not shot, just bet along.

    Apparently I'm a huge George (ask Doc), so I think you have to count that (~$150) as expenses, though I'm still +EV.



    Sorry BBB, you're EV is still negative. I think you meant to say your results are still positive.
    mustangsally
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    August 21st, 2014 at 10:52:13 AM permalink
    Quote: dicesitter

    If a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5,
    that means on average
    you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand
    and that figures out to a 30%
    advantage for the 8.5 guy.
    So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
    and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.

    I can not show you that person
    and in my opinion, that person does not exist playing casino craps with casino dice following casino rules.

    but it is HOT you use so many numbers in one paragraph
    and spell check is silent too
    Wow!
    Thank you
    Sally
    I Heart Vi Hart
    mustangsally
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    August 21st, 2014 at 10:57:31 AM permalink
    Quote: MidwestAP

    Sorry BBB, you're EV is still negative. I think you meant to say your results are still positive.

    But be very happy!
    1) Your Variance is always positive
    unless = 0
    and
    2) your Variance will never be negative

    yes, you can have it both ways
    I Heart Vi Hart
    odiousgambit
    odiousgambit 
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    August 21st, 2014 at 11:36:41 AM permalink
    Quote: beachbumbabs

    1940-480=1460 to the good.



    does MaxSwelle know about this?
    the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
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    August 21st, 2014 at 12:25:29 PM permalink
    Has Sally also meet Gamblingwoman? I say Yes , Yes.... I do, I do. Money money money or is that Monkey? I like both, just not steppupkcos.

    gIrL pѾwEr come on hard 12
    Cus
    Axel
    says so
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    AxelWolf
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    August 21st, 2014 at 12:27:57 PM permalink
    Quote: odiousgambit

    does MaxSwelle know about this?

    I was going to ask the same
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    AxelWolf
    AxelWolf
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    August 21st, 2014 at 12:31:10 PM permalink
    Quote: gamglingwoman

    My husband taught me, and he was telling me what to bet at the start,

    I think sally to. Much in common, do i see a couples craps night out?
    ♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
    AxiomOfChoice
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    August 21st, 2014 at 12:51:17 PM permalink
    Quote: beachbumbabs

    Gamblingwoman,

    Have we met? PM me, please.



    Impressive, Babs. How did you know it was her from just that one post? Do you work for the NSA?
    djatc
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    August 21st, 2014 at 12:59:59 PM permalink
    i'm just gonna grab some popcorn here. anyone want some?
    "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
    mustangsally
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    August 21st, 2014 at 1:04:18 PM permalink
    Quote: dicesitter

    If a person could extend the average after point roll from 6-8.5, that means on average
    you have the ability to get paid on 2.5 more rolls each hand and that figures out to a 30%
    advantage for the 8.5 guy. So you show me the player that averages 8.5 rolls after the point
    and i would gladly say that guy ( or gal in your case) is the expert.

    i had to calm down, and have, after reading that paragraph
    breath-taking
    I even framed it for you

    (sorry it did not fit very well
    it is the thought that counts)



    I even went to the bank to cash a check and never made it there.
    I will try again after lunch (I am always eating)

    what I wants to point out --> is those 6 point rolls on average contains the 7out roll
    so you really get 5 rolls

    and if you do not like the horn numbers, as most place bettors do,
    we can subtract 1 from 5 and get 4 rolls.

    but 0.68 rolls are point winners and not a place bet winner so it can be as low as 3.32 rolls per shooter.
    But there is good (great) news in all the doom and gloom

    should be easy to increase 3.32

    I just Lay against a point and collect my winnings
    so much fun
    so is sex with the one you love
    Sally
    I Heart Vi Hart
    NowTheSerpent
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    August 22nd, 2014 at 3:00:33 AM permalink
    Quote: chickenman

    Maybe she wanted to type "ganglingwoman" j/k



    Or maybe she's a brain surgeon who meant to type "gangliawoman"?
    • Jump to: