eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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February 25th, 2016 at 8:30:35 AM permalink
Can't post the link to the the zumma site? Let me try this one. (Maybe formatting?)

Ask the wizard: #80.
eclectic
eclectic
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February 25th, 2016 at 8:51:47 AM permalink
Ask the Wizard #79: sixth (6th) post down. Re the zumma site, which I obviously don't know how to post here, discusses selling strategy testing books, etc.
I unfortunately purchased "7,500 Craps Rolls" by Midgley, before I read the VDC informative post on "Green", referencing "72 hours " and zumma.

I was struck by the mention of "Point and Figure" on the zumma site because I had already been constructing those charts from the Midgley book.

This was appealing to me because back in the day I was a technical analyst in London. Gamblers fallacy claims that throws of the die are independent trials, while
market analysts say that charts are the theory of technical analysis are dependent trials due to the investor psychology. Still, there are dice cycles and trends
(based on confirmation bias?) which can also be described as positive/negative variance.

I would reference the book by Dewey: Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

Tks in advance for any feedback on these subjects. I had put together a better essay this this quick, informal and inconclusive draft.
eclectic
eclectic
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February 25th, 2016 at 9:00:13 AM permalink
Cut/Paste from review on Dewey's book: Cycles. Sorry for the poor writing, grammatical errors, etc. ( Note: As an aside, 2 and 3 are prime numbers)
==================================================================

Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycles periods present and that when they did the phase of these cycles was mostly very similar (cycle synchrony). He also said that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Dewey understood his cycle theory to be capable of understanding what the market is going to do and of predicting what may come.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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February 25th, 2016 at 9:54:31 AM permalink
A craps system is being formulated as we speak!
eclectic
eclectic
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February 25th, 2016 at 10:09:48 AM permalink
Maybe more of a betting strategy; based on various ideas and beliefs? Meanwhile, back to my practice box. (:-) If not, why post, discuss or play?
Let's all stay at home and never enter a casino.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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February 25th, 2016 at 11:02:08 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

A craps system is being formulated as we speak!


Will it show me how to roll 18 yo's in a row?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rushdl
rushdl
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
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February 25th, 2016 at 1:17:55 PM permalink
A Little bit like the system I wrote and use now. I'm surprized. I survive my variance on existing BR. It looks like he has never seen one. I digress.
But This systems betting structure is somewhat flawed. I must comment!
My critique:
-$500 isnt enough BR for any donter.
-the "big odds" aka greed bet will be the number one take down factor. See below where you go broke.
-defeat is admitted after 2 losses just like all other don't betters who martingdale, you're playing gamblers fallacy here. Odds did not change.
-Can't return from this loss without betting more and more and more.
-Appears as a confused mish-mash of a couple system ideas.
-enigmatic psychic calls instead of math.
-claims some dude went to law school on his wins (Big tell).
-no ability to grind, only strike
-swinging back to the pass line odds is an indecisive mistake indicating there is no system at all, or no discipline, it is psychic gambling
-pretty big ask that no one get 2 points or else your not going to play (EPIC dont stradegy)
-take 5u and leave to new table. table hopping is just psychic gambling.
or
-Lose 4 times change tables, after the decision to swap tables has been made you are down about the whole BR if you didnt notice. My estimate is -$440.
-You are broke so switch tables and do what? I am guessing go get another $500.
-there is no system, all you need is a bad table. Bad table required. Thats was the deal all along.
-I know another system that works on a good table. Good table required.
-You may have to Move around too fast for comps
-Just saying here, most of "my" BR is in my pocket, so reading my chips isnt possible for anyone new
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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February 25th, 2016 at 2:45:10 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

[buying 4 or 10 is] the best non-free bet on the table when they take the vig after the win.



per roll, it is just as low in HE as the pass line
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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February 25th, 2016 at 10:16:55 PM permalink
Quote: eclectic

Let's all stay at home and never enter a casino.



Saves you a lot of money!
eclectic
eclectic
Joined: Jan 3, 2016
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February 26th, 2016 at 6:27:40 AM permalink
rushdl thank you reply. I think your points of experience (and that of millions of others using systems?) mirror what the Wizard said in his post #80. Testing of any craps systems have to be done over billions of trials to be valid and all will eventually fail. Testing over 7,500 trials or even I million trials is not enough statistical data to draw significant statistical conclusions for an edge. (Just call me Captain Obvious?)

I would say that under certain cold or choppy table conditions (and just how does one quantify that intangible?) the system will work. And that's where the table
trend comes into play: going with the flow if you will. Short term vs long term? And that is why I will be studying my P&F charts of pass/don't pass. Maybe confirmation bias on my part but there do seems to be times--when looking at the charts kept while at the table--that can be helpful for telling the player when to switch sides. This is fun and I enjoy learning.

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