guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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June 27th, 2014 at 8:58:22 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Hey listen. I know everyone means well here and all. The fact that long term trends don't mean much to most folks is what makes gambling efficacious.

Harrah's hasn't figured this out yet, but when almost everyone loses, there are no stories like those we're reading here that go something like, "but sometimes you win."

The logical extension is, "when you do get lucky enough to win, that's awesome."

When the payback percentage on an IGT slot, such as those at the world famous "Caesar's Palace" for example, are set to 86% payback, you don't have these discussions (as often) about how sometimes you win and/or how that playing the game makes sense for some of the people who are lucky enough to win.

There is not a math person anywhere that would tell you that nobody is lucky enough to be a lifetime winner in craps.

There are MANY lifetime winners at craps.

And if there's were not, in my opinion, the game would suck.

Most games that have lifetime winners are the result of people who are only in Vegas for a few days of their life or otherwise the biggest payout is so huge, they get hold of reason when faced with "do I spend it or gamble that money too?"



There's a guy that I see a lot that's seven stars that has to be a lifetime winner. I don't have the money to bet like him but he buys in for $5,000 and I almost never see him leave with less than $10,000. In fact I'm a don't play and everytime he shoots he makes like 3 passes and rolls a ton of numbers, which makes me scared to play when he shoots. I remember one time he came up to me and showed me 5 orange chips and two black and said to me "Despite how shitty the table that I just was at was, I made $200".

I believe that there are people that are just plain lucky and win more often than they loose at Craps. Granted maybe there's not a lot of them but there are people that are lucky. People win the lottery.
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 10:09:19 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

There's a guy that I see a lot that's seven stars that has to be a lifetime winner. I don't have the money to bet like him but he buys in for $5,000 and I almost never see him leave with less than $10,000. In fact I'm a don't play and everytime he shoots he makes like 3 passes and rolls a ton of numbers, which makes me scared to play when he shoots. I remember one time he came up to me and showed me 5 orange chips and two black and said to me "Despite how shitty the table that I just was at was, I made $200".

I believe that there are people that are just plain lucky and win more often than they loose at Craps. Granted maybe there's not a lot of them but there are people that are lucky. People win the lottery.


There are also players that study the game and everything about it, they know that it's a negative game that there are holes in the math of the game that will allow them to win in the short time that they are at the table. Most craps players just try to get lucky and would never think about trying to understand the game, they will never pick-up a book that may or may not give them some good insight into the game.

There is no doubt that you should understand the math of the game, but you don't have to play it like all the books tell you to do, because most of what your going to find in a book is regurgitated stuff that the author did nothing more then to pass on what they read in a different book!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 10:21:13 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

Just once I would like to see a dice thread that says this is how I lose my money. Try it, you might like it.



Well buzz, you are welcome to read my blog entries. There are plenty of loss stories in there. But there are a few good wins in there too.

My favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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  • Posts: 33
June 27th, 2014 at 11:17:45 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Well buzz, you are welcome to read my blog entries. There are plenty of loss stories in there. But there are a few good wins in there too.

Quote:

My favorite bet at this point is the extreme pressure on the Buy 4 and 10. Buy for $100, press to $300, press to $600, press to $1000.
After the second hit, you are up $250, after the third hit you are up $1000. And if the miracle 4th number comes, $2000 and down.




A few questions for that buy 4 and 10 RC

What is your session buy in and overall playing bankroll for that scale of bet?

I like this one:
Buy 4 and 10 for $25. Myngoalmis 4 hits.
First hit go to $75
2nd hit go to $225
3rd hit go to $675
4th hit collect $2025 and restart a $100 and go for 4 hits.

Now At $100 fifth hit go to $300
6th hit go to $900
7th hit go to $2700
8th hit collect $8000

Now that's a payday all from a $50 risk.
Other option is collect another $2700 o
After 7th hit and do a new series and start at $200-300
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 11:37:53 AM permalink
Hi VDC,
That bet came about from playing on tables where the 4 or 10 is being rolled a fair amount, or when a certain person seems to be rolling a large number of 4s or 10s. I was looking for a way to get to $1000 quickly, as many times I will see a 4 or 10 rolled 3 times, and some 4 times, but that 5th time is quite rare. I don't mind having 1k on the table that has already been 'paid for' (yes, I know it is my money).

My typical buy in is $1000, and very, very, rarely will I reload. So Buying the 4 for $100 is a major investment, but if I see a shooter (like superrick, or my buddy Tom) who has already demonstrated he tends to throw 4s, I may take the chance. It usually also happens when I have been playing for a bit, and am already up a few hundred.

(When I played with superrick last time, he had told me before going in, he was throwing a lot of 4s lately. And sure enough, his first few shoots had quite a few 4s. So I was up quite a bit, and decided to make a run at his 4s. It is in my blog, but bottom line was he set the 4 as the point, so that messed me up a bit. He rolled the 4, four times, like I needed, but I was not playing the come out roll, so it ended one roll short for me. I think I had the 4 at $900 that time.)

I have been to the $600 level 4 times, but I have never gotten paid on that amount. I did have a $500 10 bet get paid, which I pressed to $1000, and that got paid. Unfortunately, I opted to leave it up for one more hit, and it got wiped a couple of throws later. But getting 4 purples on a single 10 was oh so sweet and such a huge rush.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 11:57:09 AM permalink
VDC,
My regular Buy 4/10 press looks a bit like yours.

If the 4/10 is coming up fairly often, then I will start this press sequence (vig up front)

$25 initial bet....................... - cost is $26
1st hit - Press to $75............. - cost is $29
2nd hit - Press to $150.......... - ahead $39
3rd hit - Press to $300........... - ahead $174

4th hit - Press to $900........... - ahead $129 - this press if the 4 hits came quickly

4th hit - Press to $600........... - ahead $444
5th hit - Press to $1000......... - ahead $1194


The biggest initial bet I have made on the Buy 4/10 was $200, which got pressed to $500 on the first hit. Unfortunately, I did not get paid on that second bet. (IIRC, I think I may have bet $500 on the 10 when that same shooter came up, after that time I got paid the $2000. I'm pretty certain I lost that bet with no pay. Too lazy to check my blog though)

WinCraps has led me to see that the long term slow play is rarely going to be profitable, so I have modified my play to go for the bigger hits. And large Buys on the 4/10, when they are being rolled, is a quick way to get a big hit.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:34:51 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Hi VDC,
That bet came about from playing on tables where the 4 or 10 is being rolled a fair amount, or when a certain person seems to be rolling a large number of 4s or 10s. I was looking for a way to get to $1000 quickly, as many times I will see a 4 or 10 rolled 3 times, and some 4 times, but that 5th time is quite rare. I don't mind having 1k on the table that has already been 'paid for' (yes, I know it is my money).

.


VDC as you already know I don't go to the tables with to many guys that come into Vegas, but I've been to the tables with RaleighCraps, because he has a very good understanding of the game, he is not a so-called DI, but he has a very nice rhythm of type roll that works! During our initial contact, he explained to me he was a rhythm roller, and I told him it didn't matter to me, if I didn't like what I saw I just wouldn't bet, and that I make money on the so-called random roller.

I explain to him that his best bet would be on the 4's and 10's when I'm shooting, if I was rolling them! There was no guarantee that I would be making them while we were on the table together! On one occasion I told him to bet the field and just press up his bets on a random roller that I've seen shooting all around town many times that will roll field numbers after field numbers.

It paid off for him , because of all the field numbers he was rolling! You don't have to be a DI to win money on the craps tables, but you do need to understand how to bet the game when a roll is happening, and RaleighCraps know when to press up bets, and when to lay off other shooters that are not rolling anything that will make him money!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:36:24 PM permalink
Sweet. Are you a a local Vegas guy? Or come in from Raleigh?

Yep 4-'s and 10's are SR, Harley's and my favorite signature numbers. Haha. I got good at hitting them too. Had eight 8 and eleven hand 4's a few times but I took payouts and of course it was the fricken point a few times so I missed payouts there. So I decided since I missed those payouts to reduce and lock in a win only to go and continue banging them out.

I don't play this on Randy's though. Just a few people besides myself that I can trust this risk on. I'm willing to take my losses knowing at some point ill get my wins clumped up.

Most times ill start initially 4-10 $10 ea working on comeout. Hit that for point then jump straight to $25. Next $75 next $225 next $675 next collect $2025 than restart.

Here is how I play the come out # 2,3,4,5 etc.... If I'm at $75 I ask myself what would it take for me to hop a payout of roughy $150? As if I worked that $75 four that pays $150. I hop 2-2 for $5 and 3-1 for $10. So im giving up $15 to protect that 4, bc I don't want to miss a progression bc it could keep me from possibly collecting $2025 if I miss a payout. Then I had the next issue. Throwing a 2,3,11,12 horn while protecting a 4 on come out. Gone is my $15 2way 4 hop bet $$$... So now I hedge the hedge. house Edge HE says bad bet. I know it is but I have 2 situations I did not collect on bc of hitting four numerous times on CO roll. I don't Eat the 2-way four hedge money and I protect it against a horn for $2 with $1 yo. So I'm into a CO roll $18 once I get the 4 to $75. In this situation I'm hoping to get it to $225 before that CO roll so to only do it once bc now I'm hopping for payout around $450. So as it builds it becomes $15/30. For a 2 way four.

You can't work the CO bc of the 7 showing so you either hedge as described or live with hitting four on come out and missing progression.

I'm only telling you this because I missed 3 $10,000 payouts at a $5000 bet that I should of got to but bc of point and not working CO bc of CO7. That $30,000 could of been huge in bankroll growth and playing at a higher unit. So now I make the sacrifice of a hedge.

Any thought from Math guys here in this situation? Do you let it go? Do you work that bet and expose to a CO 7. What do you do if you don't work and it goes on to hit 3 times as the point and you miss the payout? Do a reduction and say F it. , as I missed 3 progressions, only to realize later that your $18 hedge on CO cost u $30k?

Curious to thoughts here.
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:37:35 PM permalink
Quote: VegasDiceController


Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.

Name one.

Contrary to popular belief Poker players are NOT MATH GUYS. Guys that are extremely good at math often struggle with poker Exact math is one of the least important parts of poker. Good poker players are human and yes some have gambling addictions or weaknesses including craps. So don't pat yourself on the back just because some poker player loses at craps.

Math dictates craps, variance dictates your streaks and trends. If you think you can avoid the longrun by breaking up your sessions into shorter ones, you will have to explain to everyone how lots of short sessions don't = long sessions. Perhaps you are a winning craps player (doubtful) but you are just on the right side of variance. If you have some magic formula, I say prove it.

All the REAL advantage plays, where math had been used to prove there is an edge, have been proven to work. No -EV craps, Baccarat, roulette etc etc player has ever proven they can consistently beat -EV games, yet there has been cash offers to do so.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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June 27th, 2014 at 12:38:25 PM permalink
There's a high roller that comes into the casino every weekend that buys the 4 & 10 for $500 and if it hits he goes to $1,500 and if it hits again he goes to $4,500. I saw him get paid $9,000 once on what was originally a $500 bet. It was my turn to shoot next and I rolled an 11, so he threw down $400 for the Yo and he hit it paying him $6,000. He tipped me a $25 green chip and he gave the dealers $500. He had over $30,000 in chips in his trey and I was told he gave it all back and left with nothing at the end of the night.

This guy presses super heavy and always buys in for 10K but I've never seen him leave with any money. One time he bought in for 15K and I cashed out with more then him. I cashed out with $500 (started with $300) and he cashed out with $150 (started with 15K)

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