VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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  • Posts: 33
June 27th, 2014 at 5:30:00 AM permalink
Quote: ahiromu

I read your system until you said "make a doey/don't" and got to stop reading there, thanks for saving me the time.



LMAO... Its your choice Ahiromu... You can let the point of 4,5,6,8,9,or 10 come out and pay the house VIG of $1 for every $20 you make or you can do the Doey/Dont and use that Flat bet now to CREATE a free LAY bet on the same number 4.5.6.8.9.or 10. Thats all its there for is to create a FREE LAY..... But you probably pay for your Lays right? (PUN Intended) lmao
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 33
June 27th, 2014 at 5:58:55 AM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Who's right?? Whoever is at the finish line first… You might play 8 hours, 3 sessions with your proper bets… I might play 20 mins, and beat the valet back to the window before he hangs the keys of my truck on the wall…



Exactly... Whoever is at the finish line first.... Who cares how we get there right.. We all know the MATH data will surface in the LOngrun, but we (us daily/weekly) guys believe in the short term fluctuations of the game and we try and exploit it. I personally play how the table is Trending at the time... If its Do side play than I'm getting odds on my bets... if it dictates Dont play then playing DONT side and giving up more $$$ to Win less usually if its not a flat bet...

Im the kind of player that if I notice a number gone, Say the 6 or 8 for this matter....GOne to me is 20-24 rolls... Ill lay it for $60 to win $50. Once I see a C.O7 or 7out, Ill parlay that risk and Win and bet next bet is $120 to win $100. this is the bet i wanna WIN... When it does, I now have won $49 and $95 net for a $144. It just became a FREE bet for me now and i repeat step 2. If i win the 3rd Leg of this LAY, i now advance UP and play another 3 tier Lay but my starting point is the middle level of the one i just came from so its $120/$100. Then the next is $240/200, then i repeat that. then advance up to a new 3 tier Lay again. etc etc... when do i stop? After i see (2) eights within 5 rolls of each other... hopefully when i do have 2 eight they are more than 5 rolls.

Now how many 7's of you think one should have with 108 rolls? exactly a lot.... my point is, I collected laying the eight at my base bet of a $50 win on a table and kept using my 3 tier progression bc i seen a table trend on a NO 8 or NO 6.... Where I exploit it, you MATH guys are placing that same 6 or 8 bc the math says it should hit every 7.2 rolls and we have only had 3 eights in 108 rolls...

I would be the type to pull down $1000 during this 1-1.5hr session betting they short term fluctuation of the game, where you would be getting you ass handed to you betting the 6 or 8 or whatever # was gone bc you play the number game where I play the table trend at the time.... hence the term TRENDSETTERCRAPS

did i mention when the 8 returned and i eventually loss my lay, that i had a 50% chance of not losing it a second time if it appeared w/in 5 rolls of first 8 appearance? so theres a chance i only give back 1 loss but guess what, when it returns you are betting it scared bc you got your ass handed to you by playing it over last hour or so...and are not sure if its gonna roll anymore and start doubting all this math stuff, bc its suppose to hit once every 7.2 rolls bc the big books says so.... so you bet it lightly mainly bc your buy in is deflated, where i come in knowing now the MATH of the game will surface and when the dust settles late tonight that this eight will catch up and BALANCE back out the MATH as we get closure to the LONGTERM eventuality of numbers balancing to true mathematics... so i play the 8 now knowing its the best # to be on bc now it was so far behind it has to balance and most times it does... not always but most times it will balance back while you are still at the table...

Boom, its the point and next roll point winner...co 7, co 11 co 8 again.. 1 roll later a 8 winner and so on... in fact i even play those shitty house edge bets you guys stay away from bc of the MATH.... Where I will be hopping a 3 way 8 or $6 or $15, and collecting 31:1 on a hopping Hard 8. ( yes i realize it big house edge), but bc of the table trending and balancing i put MY MATH on hold and bet this high HE and collect BIGTIME. These are the short term fluctuations i play.

But in the LONGTERM the math of the game will be there over 30,000 rolls of the dice. Im only concerned of the 144-180 rolls of that 30,000.

Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.

The best of the best in the Poker room, but BLOW on the Craps table unless they get lucky bc they play the Math of the game not the Table Trend during that hr session.

PEACE
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:11:26 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:44:19 AM permalink
If all you do at craps is make the most advantageous bets, then the game isn't any fun. You're sitting there grinding out pass or don't pass with odds, while everyone else is whooping it up on a hot shooter. They're getting paid on place/buy bets and the other oddball stuff, you're waiting for the point to hit (or 7out).

Sure, they're losing more when they lose. But if you were looking for the best bet you would have walked past the casino.

What I'm saying is, if you want to pry yourself away from pass/odds, this way of placing your bets is as good as any other random way you might consider, given that the odds on the table are invariant. It looks hellaciously complicated to me; I'd probably just guess numbers to bet on rather than whatever juju is wrapped up in those calculations, but the results would be mathematically the same, depending on whether the guesses or system matched future outcomes. No big deal, y'know?
NO KILL I
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 6:55:17 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Sure, they're losing more when they lose.



People that don't care about math, and I hate to be technical, but they win less when they win actually.

Unlike slots, all losing bets on craps lose the entire amount, although there are plenty of pushes.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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June 27th, 2014 at 7:09:39 AM permalink
Axelwolf



All the activities i mentioned are much more than skill, much more. It comes dome to decisions,
every guy in a tournament can fish, they can shoot, they can play poker, the decisions and
preparation is what makes the difference.

What you are suggesting in craps is that you can take a guy that has worked on his shot for years,
undertstands the game, the tables he is playing on, etc.... and then you can take a guy that is
drunk when he plays and they can play 25 sessions at the table with the same starting bank roll
and after every 25 game session they will both have the same amount of money!!!!!


I wonder if that is what you are trying to tell us.

dicesetter
VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 33
June 27th, 2014 at 7:22:51 AM permalink
It's funny none of these math genius ever answered the original question.

So here it is again. I did this about 6-8 wks ago at an All Tall Small table. If I have the original exact roll data ill post it but this is what I know I did bc I got paid twice on it and almost a 3rd time...

I rolled all the number thru twice. 2,3,4,5,6 , 8, 9,10,11 and then three 12's. then before any 7 even thrown did it a second time, 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10.11 and 3 more 12's, then got paid $1225 again, then while attempting to do it a 3rd time, I got almost half way thru. Needed 2#'s each side (small and tall) before the 7 eventually hit.

So what are the odds to hit all that twice while hitting the 12 six times during this single hand roll ?

Thx for taking the time to figure out. It fries my brain trying to do the Math.

Ill let experts give it a whirl

VDC
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 7:45:34 AM permalink
A math boy and a Patrick player are at a craps table and get into a heated discussion.

It is agreed to resolve the disagreement by coin flip.

Who wins?

The math boy, every time, as the other fellow insists he must watch the coin flip for awhile before betting "the trend."
"What, me worry?"
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
  • Threads: 28
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June 27th, 2014 at 7:52:37 AM permalink
Quote: VegasDiceController



Cant tell you how many times i watched you math POKER GUYS who play EV games stroll over to the craps table and Lose your ass. I played with many BIGS at RIO during WSOP tournaments.

The best of the best in the Poker room, but BLOW on the Craps table unless they get lucky bc they play the Math of the game not the Table Trend during that hr session.

PEACE


One of the worst times to play craps at the Rio is when the WSOP tournament is in town, These guys turn a decent table into a nightmare,.. they may know how to play poker, but they don't know how to play craps.
Quote: VegasDiceController


But in the LONGTERM the math of the game will be there over 30,000 rolls of the dice. Im only concerned of the 144-180 rolls of that 30,000.


No one is going to be there for even 10,000 rolls of the dice, and most will only be there till their little bank roll is lost, it could be only one of the dice or just a few if they put up one large bet hoping that they get lucky!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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June 27th, 2014 at 8:04:12 AM permalink
Hey listen. I know everyone means well here and all. The fact that long term trends don't mean much to most folks is what makes gambling efficacious.

Harrah's hasn't figured this out yet, but when almost everyone loses, there are no stories like those we're reading here that go something like, "but sometimes you win."

The logical extension is, "when you do get lucky enough to win, that's awesome."

When the payback percentage on an IGT slot, such as those at the world famous "Caesar's Palace" for example, are set to 86% payback, you don't have these discussions (as often) about how sometimes you win and/or how that playing the game makes sense for some of the people who are lucky enough to win.

There is not a math person anywhere that would tell you that nobody is lucky enough to be a lifetime winner in craps.

There are MANY lifetime winners at craps.

And if there's were not, in my opinion, the game would suck.

Most games that have lifetime winners are the result of people who are only in Vegas for a few days of their life or otherwise the biggest payout is so huge, they get hold of reason when faced with "do I spend it or gamble that money too?"

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