Strong Proven bet for the Dark Side Players... One of the BEST I've Seen.

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Quote: TheWolf713

I have question for my Math guys…I honestly would like to Why do you play craps?

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/07/keynes_in_the_long_run_we_are_all_dead.html

Quote: SlateArticle

To extend the metaphor, Keynes’ point wasn’t that the long-term is unimportant—it’s crucial that a ship eventually arrive at the correct port. But in the middle of the storm an expert sailor needs to be able to say something useful about how to weather what’s actually happening. Economics will not be a useful or interesting discipline if all it can say about exchange rates is that eventually things will work themselves out. In the short run, it makes quite a bit of difference what happens to exchange rates: It can make the difference between prosperity and recession.

If your analysis of craps is what happens in the long run, you're probably not betting enough money to care about the short run.

You can, generally, bet more money in craps without paying more in order to do so. At least until you max out 20x odds at the moment.

Most people can afford to get as much of a free (extra) gamble as they are willing to handle and even more wuss out before getting close.

Not everybody wants to be an AP. And for those who don't care to be, craps is an easy way to get close to zero edge on a percentage basis with very little knowledge. That's why it's a favorable game. It isn't just for arrogant AP's who look down on other people who are not AP's. It is a game for all level of players, and is only expensive for the truly degenerate thrill-seeking folks who just don't care at all about edges or who bet way beyond their tolerance for losses.

Quote: Buzzard

" If at any point you feel the shooter is gonna make this point just swing you lay bet odds over to taking odds."


" Be smart, look at racks of amount of chips. small racks and no noise equals perfect table to play this. "


Both these statements are as important as the box man's shoe size.

well, the shoe size of the box man might be more important in predicting how the future lies; if his shoes don't fit he might be in a bad mood and tell a dealer to screw you over on something.

on the other hand, such a table is good for the darksider. Quiet probably means just a few gamblers, and the small-rackers will be leaving soon most of the time, making a quiet table even quieter. It all bodes well for playing darkside without upsetting anybody, and if you enjoy esprit de table* with other right-siders, you ain't getting that anyway.

Quote:

If your analysis of craps is what happens in the long run, you're probably not betting enough money to care about the short run.

You can, generally, bet more money in craps without paying more in order to do so. At least until you max out 20x odds at the moment.

Most people can afford to get as much of a free (extra) gamble as they are willing to handle and even more wuss out before getting close.

Not everybody wants to be an AP. And for those who don't care to be, craps is an easy way to get close to zero edge on a percentage basis with very little knowledge. That's why it's a favorable game. It isn't just for arrogant AP's who look down on other people who are not AP's. It is a game for all level of players, and is only expensive for the truly degenerate thrill-seeking folks who just don't care at all about edges or who bet way beyond their tolerance for losses.

I think were wasting our time Aaron.... these are Math Guys here for the most part.... not everyday/weekly Craps players like us. They'll toss their Neg Exp point all night and they base all info off Long Term and Not the short term as you said.

So here is a question for you Math Guys than.

What are the ODDS for 1 shooter to roll a 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,and 12 with out throwing a 7 ?.... make that 3 twelve's? Put your answer here....________________

Next Question: What are are odds throwing 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,and 12 (3 times).... than throwing same thing again in same roll 2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,and 12 (3 times)?
Yes the twelves was throw 6 times in this hypothetical question? Since your the math gurus, id like a numerical answer if all possible.

TY for taking the time to figure this out.... id like to see how many are correct....

thewolf713



That is easy, the math of the game does not dictate the results.


If all you ever did was rely on the math, no one would do anything,..... the pure math says that if there are
50 boats in a fishing tournament you should win one out of 50 events..... the math says that in colorado there
is a 25% chance you will get an elk with bow, and yet some of us get one most years, the math says
if there are 10 guys at a poker table, you should get hands good enough to win one out of 10 hands.

All this is pure folly, all of us have the ability to alter the outcomes of most of the things we do
with our preparation and ability to control the level of our participation...

If a person goes to the table and bets $1000 on the dont pass, and some guy hits 15 pass winners
and has a 50 roll, is the loss of thousands because of the math, or stupidity?????

dicesetter

Quote: TheWolf713

I have question for my Math guys…I honestly would like to Why do you play craps?

With Negative EV, bound to lose, smartest guys at the table, and yet you still play… Why? What drives you?

That is one of my favorite questions to ask any math guy, funny that I never get a response to that question, I want to know just how often do they play, is it once a year, how about two times year? Do they play craps on WinCraps or in a real casino?

I always want to ask the guy standing next to me, that is telling everybody on the table just how stupid the guy is that is making those filed bets if he is a math guy. The funny part is when he walks away a loser and that stupid guy making those field bets walked away a winner, because everybody on the table was throwing nothing but field numbers, and there were no 5's, 6's, and 8's!

The math of the game tells you that over the long run of 10,000 rolls of the dice, you will come out a loser. What it does not tell you, is you have deviation , and if you're not going to stand there for 10,000 rolls the dice that math of the game could be wrong!

Nobody will play for 10,000 rolls of the dice so anything can and will happen in the short time their are at a table! The guy making those stupid field bets could come out a winner! The know it all math guy could be the big loser for the day! When it comes to craps nothing is set in stone, so the best bet on the table going by the math of the game could be the worst ones while your playing!

10000 divided by 100(average # of rolls per game), divided by 4(average number of plays per trip) equals 25 trips or 6 month of play. In 6 month you'll go broke, 100% guarantee.

Quote: Dicenor33

10000 divided by 100(average # of rolls per game), divided by 4(average number of plays per trip) equals 25 trips or 6 month of play. In 6 month you'll go broke, 100% guarantee.

No, in 6 months, you will be guaranteed to lose if you flat bet any single bet on the felt without taking free odds.

In 6 months, just doing $5 pass line and 345x odds -- FLAT betting, not only will you not be certain to go broke, but you could actually be ahead.

And that's all from just math.

All of the math guys generally think in terms of flat betting. The Wizard, I believe, generally flat-bets. AP's generally flat bet on bets where they have an advantage, and min-bet bets where they are required to bet until they have an advantage.

But when you're ACTUALLY gambling (instead of doing AP play), flat betting is what the casino wants, not what the player wants. Generally, whoever has the edge wants to flat bet and hang in there!

If you want to get lucky, you might min bet for a while then make a huge bold play 100x your previous bets and hope to get lucky. No advantage, just luck.

Nobody studies the "math" of random betting strategies or strategies based on hunches because you can't pin down what motivates the player to make a particular bet.

The most fun way to play the game is, in general, a method of play that people who think almost exclusively about the math of the game cannot relate to because, in general, the brains of these two folks are just different. Many math folks from this forum won't bet a high house edge bet out of principle alone, no matter what they think might happen next.

The game was designed to provide entertainment. Not to help math guys flat-bet the pass line with max odds and get a good deal losing as slowly as possible for a lifetime of flat betting the line with max odds. IE: the game isn't designed for math folks. It's designed for gamblers who want to have fun and have a good chance to win money by getting lucky.

A simpler method:

2 unit DP

1 unit DC

2 unit DC

The earlier bet(s) act(s) as a hedge when establishing the subsequent bet(s).

No magic here, no overcoming the house edge, just another way to play, another arrow for the quiver.

Quote: dicesitter

thewolf713



That is easy, the math of the game does not dictate the results.


If all you ever did was rely on the math, no one would do anything,..... the pure math says that if there are
50 boats in a fishing tournament you should win one out of 50 events..... the math says that in colorado there
is a 25% chance you will get an elk with bow, and yet some of us get one most years, the math says
if there are 10 guys at a poker table, you should get hands good enough to win one out of 10 hands.

All this is pure folly, all of us have the ability to alter the outcomes of most of the things we do
with our preparation and ability to control the level of our participation...

If a person goes to the table and bets $1000 on the dont pass, and some guy hits 15 pass winners
and has a 50 roll, is the loss of thousands because of the math, or stupidity?????

dicesetter

All the things mentioned in your second paragraph have have to do with skill.

Quote: dicesitter

.

If a person goes to the table and bets $1000 on the dont pass, and some guy hits 15 pass winners
and has a 50 roll, is the loss of thousands because of the math, or stupidity?????

dicesetter

Stupidity for playing in the first place. Its easy to think they guy is dumb for not going with the trend, after the fact.