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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 9th, 2014 at 6:19:22 PM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

To me the most important part is what you are considering a loss vs what I am considering a loss.


agreed
I went by what you posted earlier

"The loss moves you up the system and a win triggers a double up on he next roll."
my bet progression I used
bet #	unit bet
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 2
5 2
6 4
7 4
8 8
9 8
10 16
11 16
12 32
13 32
14 64
15 64



Quote: vegasrvp

Roll example:
point come out roll is 6
Rolls of 2,5,9,8,8,5,4,11,12,6 winner means lose bet 1 move to next level

Bet#1
1
-1 net total
Quote: vegasrvp

point come out roll is 7
Lose bet 1
move to next level

bet#2
1
-1 (-2 total)
Quote: vegasrvp

point come out roll is 11
lose bet 1
move to next level

bet#3
1
-1 (-3 total)
Quote: vegasrvp

point come out roll is 5
rolls of 4,8,9,3,8,6,6,5 pint winner
lose bet 2
move to next level

bet#4
2
-2 (-5 total)

Quote: vegasrvp

point come out roll is 3
winner win bet 2
move to next level double 2 (4)


*** Here I think you may not be following the rule below***
"The loss moves you up the system and a win triggers a double up on he next roll."
Only move to next level or bet after a loss
after a win double your last bet (parlay bet)
bet#5
2
+2 (-3 total)

*still at bet#5 (a win (last roll) triggers a double up on he next roll)
*unit bet = 4 (the double up or parlay bet)
Quote: vegasrvp

point come out roll is 9
rolls of 4,6,5,10,3,5,2,7 out
winner of 8 units (less bets of 1,1,1,2 = 8-7=+1 unit for session)
Session complete move back to beginning

I agree except I was on bet#5
+4 (1 unit gain)
start over

Quote: vegasrvp

Is this what you thought? Also is this more clear?

it looks like I followed your rules perfectly
the only event that you did not take into consideration is what happens after you make the 2nd and last 64unit bet and lose and you have, say, 84 units left?
I would just make another 64 unit - the max bet as I do not have enough to go to a 128 unit bet and that might be over the table limit too ($10 table max bet of $1000) and not just start over as that would give the lowest chance of getting back up and hitting my target I set at 510 units and dinner and dancing.

setup WinCraps and use my code and play your system
the average number of rolls to win or lose is about 1200
1700 on a win
800 on a loss

when you think on how a system can win or lose you need to consider every possible sequence of events
this is where a simulation comes in handy

how often do you think you should double a 255 starting bankroll?
It can never be greater than 50%
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 10th, 2014 at 9:55:07 AM permalink
Something just doesn't sit right in the over all numbers that are being thrown around.

I am in full agreement that long term this cannot and will not work, however, if there is a 59% chance that when a point is established I will be a winner playing the don't side.

How do I calculate hitting back to back don't winners? I'm guessing it is in the 34-35% range? This is eliminating both the 7/11 and 2/3 on the come out roll.

What I think is we may be looking at this backwards.

What are the odds of hitting 15 points out of 29 points established? (If we hit 15 points and go with the max rolls we would also hit 14 7outs in that same time)

Once we know that we could be calculate:
15 of 28
15 of 27
15 of 26 ect....thru 15 of 17.

Again.....over 1 million rolls this will bust like any other system based on the odds.

But, to go to a casino and win 10 units, bounce around tables and have some fun, I think you could do this for a good amount of time without a bust of -255 units. Can you hit 10 units 25+ times without a bust more then not.....who knows. Math probably says no and sitting for 1 million consecutive rolls will probably prove that conclusively. I personally do not have 50 hours a month for 10+ years to work out that kinda proof nor do I want to.

It is fun to play with the ideas though.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 10th, 2014 at 5:08:15 PM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

Something just doesn't sit right in the over all numbers that are being thrown around.

I am in full agreement that long term this cannot and will not work, however, if there is a 59% chance that when a point is established I will be a winner playing the don't side.

How do I calculate hitting back to back don't winners? I'm guessing it is in the 34-35% range? This is eliminating both the 7/11 and 2/3 on the come out roll.

What I think is we may be looking at this backwards.

What are the odds of hitting 15 points out of 29 points established? (If we hit 15 points and go with the max rolls we would also hit 14 7outs in that same time)

Once we know that we could be calculate:
15 of 28
15 of 27
15 of 26 ect....thru 15 of 17.

Again.....over 1 million rolls this will bust like any other system based on the odds.

why are you only looking at how the don't pass wins once a point is established? what is that fixation all about? 2 wins will never cancel out a 7/11 on the come out roll.
you need to show better math to convince most that you are correct there.

look at every possible outcome and you will see why that 59% value is meaningless as I pointed out a few times before. I mean totally.
Here is data for the don't pass. The ways it wins, loses and pushes.
EventFreq.
Natural440
Craps2,3165
Push 1255
4 Made55
4 Not110
5 Made88
5 Not132
6 Made125
6 Not150
8 Made125
8 Not150
9 Made88
9 Not132
10 Made55
10 Not110
Totals -1980

we add the events up and get this data
eventprob
Natural0.222222222
Craps2,30.083333333
Push 120.027777778
lose on point536
win on point784
lose on point0.270707071
win on point0.395959596
total1
prob win0.479292929
prob push0.027777778
prob loss0.492929293
prob win no push0.492987013
prob loss no push0.507012987


Quote: vegasrvp

But, to go to a casino and win 10 units, bounce around tables and have some fun,
I think you could do this for a good amount of time without a bust of -255 units.

If you use a 255 unit bankroll and want to win 10 units and quit playing and starting with a new 255unit bankroll at a future time your chance of winning is just under 96.2% (255/265)
I simulated this (you can do the same with WinCraps and my code) and it come in at 95.8% to win 1 session 1 time.
Now you want to win 25 times in a row to win 250 units
try 26 times in a row so a loss will only wipe out your total winnings
95.8%^26 = ?
That is your chance to win 26 sessions in a row without busting out your 255 bankroll

not impressive enough?
just playing with the 255 bankroll and trying to double while never using any of the winnings you have accumulated is about 45% success from my earlier simulation. 4 out of 9 or 1 out of 3? tough choice!

Quote: vegasrvp

Can you hit 10 units 25+ times without a bust more then not.....who knows. Math probably says no

you should know now. But I think you must prove this to yourself.
your current system wins on a first win or needs 2 wins in a row to win and start the progression over.
sometimes (55%) it can not do that with a 255 unit bankroll

maybe you should risk more to lose and win a few more times.

Quote: vegasrvp

It is fun to play with the ideas though

so true.
and no fun being bummed out from the results from your ideas played many times

Have fun
see you in Las Vegas at the end of this month!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
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March 16th, 2014 at 8:00:47 AM permalink
Wanna mess with some new stuff?

Can I ask you to run another SIM?

I want to see a Sim on the don't pass and the don't come.

Initial bet 1 unit on the don't pass. (2x3x4)
5 base = 12 odds on 6/8
5 base = 15 odds on 5/9
5 base = 20 odds on 4/10

7, 11, 2, 3 ,12 just rebet
Once point is established use same betting strategy with up to four don't come wagers with same odds

Upon 7 out start over

If any or all don't come wagers lose we do not exceed a total of 4 don't comes per one 7 out.

I hope this makes some sense and if you have any need for clarification please ask.
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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March 16th, 2014 at 8:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

Wanna mess with some new stuff?

Can I ask you to run another SIM?

I want to see a Sim on the don't pass and the don't come.

Initial bet 1 unit on the don't pass. (2x3x4)
5 base = 12 odds on 6/8
5 base = 15 odds on 5/9
5 base = 20 odds on 4/10

7, 11, 2, 3 ,12 just rebet
Once point is established use same betting strategy with up to four don't come wagers with same odds

Upon 7 out start over

If any or all don't come wagers lose we do not exceed a total of 4 don't comes per one 7 out.

I hope this makes some sense and if you have any need for clarification please ask.



Those bets are straight 2X odds.
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 17th, 2014 at 12:49:24 PM permalink
You're right:

I would like to know about starting with 200 units and how many times you will bust out vs doubling your 200?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 18th, 2014 at 12:36:49 PM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

I would like to know about starting with 200 units and how many times you will bust out vs doubling your 200?

do you mean a $200 bankroll or a $1000 bankroll

You are flat betting at $5 (before odds) so $200 = 40 unit bankroll
$1000 = 200 unit bankroll

easier to double 40 units than 200 units
45% vs 37%
(this assumes that as the bankroll grows you do not take any away until you have hit your target bankroll. if you do your risk of ruin goes up and up and up)

now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter
but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter
starts out like this
7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

you now have lost 3 dpass bets with odds and have 3 dcome bets with odds
you are not at all concerned about the hot shooter wiping out multiple dpass with odds bets?
maybe remove all the dcome bets with odds and chicken out. This shooter is causing you to lose too much.
got to feel better now, but

next roll 7 win
lost another dpass but won 3 dcomes with odds, oh no
still a loss to show for from one hot shooter

the code I used for WinCraps is a simple adjustment to the popular "risk of ruin" file that is free from the WC site
maybe you should get WinCraps and run these yourself
that way you can play with max 3 bets lost, then max 2 bets lost, then max4 bets lost with odds for both dpass-dcome
and as many combination of systems as you can think of

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
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March 18th, 2014 at 6:59:32 PM permalink
The 7/11 on the don't line, and the don't come are just played as they do not exist.

The don't line initial bet is also counted as one of the four potential losses in a session so I guess I worded it wrong. It would be a max of 3 don't come bets with double odds along with the don't line initial come out.

I am looking to double 200 units so on a flat bet of $5 that would be $1000.

I have no doubt that there will be occasional losses. The max loss per shooter would be $90 with a flat $5 bet.
Example: Point 10 with $20 odds. Don't come 9 with $15 odds, Don't come 4 with $20 odds and Don't come 5 with $15.
$20+$20+$15+$15+$5base (4) = $90.
This is the max.

If I take the total units down to 100 vs 200 and with the don't come max at three will this change a lot in my favor.

On more thing. If I have a come out roll of 9 followed by a 4 then followed by another 9 and finally a 8 there will be no more don't come wagers as the four bets have posted. It is 4 total don't / don't come wager not four that actually go up.

Example:
5 point followed by 6, 9 6, 8,6,10,7out will be a winner on the 5, 9 and second 6 and a loss on the first 6.
5= winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)
6 = loss of $17 (5 base plus 12 odds)
9=winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)
6=winner of $15 (5 base plus 12 odds)
Total win = $28 (4 total bets with 3 wins and 1 loss)

YOU SAID:
now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter
but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter
starts out like this
7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

7= -5
11= -5
7= -5
4 = don't point with 20 odds
4 = -25 (LOSS 1)
6 = don't come point
11= -5
8= don't come point
3= +5
8= -17 (LOSS 2)
if 7 comes now I lose another 5 for don't come and win the 6 for =15
total for shooter = -47 or just under 10 units
I agree this is a bad scenario but a 10 unit swing is not the end of the world.

I hope this clarifies a little.

Thanks,

Adam
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 19th, 2014 at 9:36:44 AM permalink
Quote: vegasrvp

The 7/11 on the don't line, and the don't come are just played as they do not exist.

The don't line initial bet is also counted as one of the four potential losses in a session so I guess I worded it wrong. It would be a max of 3 don't come bets with double odds along with the don't line initial come out.

I am looking to double 200 units so on a flat bet of $5 that would be $1000.

four potential losses per shooter
so after 4 total odds bets are made are you finished betting for the current shooter's hand? or
do you wait until you see how many bets you actually win/lose before making any more bets?

9,4,9,7,8 would be 4 bets with odds made but a 7 winner on the come out roll
lost a DP9
won two bets with odds (DC4,DC9), lost a DP and have only a DP8 with odds
do you make another don't come?
Quote: vegasrvp

If I take the total units down to 100 vs 200 and with the don't come max at three will this change a lot in my favor.


it is always easier to double a smaller number of units than a larger number of units if the betting unit stays the same.
Quote: vegasrvp

On more thing. If I have a come out roll of 9 followed by a 4 then followed by another 9 and finally a 8 there will be no more don't come wagers as the four bets have posted. It is 4 total don't / don't come wager not four that actually go up.

here is how I see this example
New game started
Beginning bankroll: $1000
------New shooter coming out----------
$5 bet on Don't Pass
Roll #1: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad
Point established
$15 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #2: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 4
$20 bet on Don't Come 4 Odds <<<<#2
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #3: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $15
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 9
Bankroll decreased to $980 ($20 loss)
$15 bet on Don't Come 9 Odds <<<<#3
Roll #4: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad
Point established
$12 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#4 last bet made until 7out


Quote: vegasrvp

Example:
5 point followed by 6, 9 6, 8,6,10,7out will be a winner on the 5, 9 and second 6 and a loss on the first 6.
5= winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)
6 = loss of $17 (5 base plus 12 odds)
9=winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)
6=winner of $15 (5 base plus 12 odds)
Total win = $28 (4 total bets with 3 wins and 1 loss)

I do not agree you win $28.
I see your example as this. You say you stop making don't come bets after 4 total odds bets are made

New game started
Beginning bankroll: $1000
------New shooter coming out----------
$5 bet on Don't Pass
Roll #1: 5 (4.1) from manual roll pad
Point established
$15 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #2: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6
$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#2
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #3: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 9
$15 bet on Don't Come 9 Odds <<<<#3
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #4: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad
Don't Come 6 bet lost $5
Don't Come 6 Odds bet lost $12
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6
$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#4 and no more bets to make until 7out
Bankroll decreased to $983 ($17 loss)
Roll #5: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad
Roll #6: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad
Don't Come 6 bet lost $5
Don't Come 6 Odds bet lost $12
Bankroll decreased to $966 ($17 loss)
Roll #7: 10 (5.5) from manual roll pad
Roll #8: 7 (4.3) from manual roll pad
Miss (seven-out)
Don't Pass bet won $5
Don't Pass Odds bet won $10
Don't Come 9 bet won $5
Don't Come 9 Odds bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $996 ($30 gain)
------New shooter coming out----------

Net $4 Loss on last shooter and not a $28 win

Quote: vegasrvp

YOU SAID:
now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter
but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter
starts out like this
7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

7= -5
11= -5
7= -5
4 = don't point with 20 odds
4 = -25 (LOSS 1)
6 = don't come point
11= -5
8= don't come point
3= +5
8= -17 (LOSS 2)
if 7 comes now I lose another 5 for don't come and win the 6 for =15
total for shooter = -47 or just under 10 units
I agree this is a bad scenario but a 10 unit swing is not the end of the world.

I show a loss of only $32
New game started
Beginning bankroll: $1000
------New shooter coming out----------
$5 bet on Don't Pass
Roll #1: 7 (5.2) from manual roll pad
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $995 ($5 loss)
Roll #2: 11 (6.5) from manual roll pad
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $990 ($5 loss)
Roll #3: 7 (5.2) from manual roll pad
Pass (natural)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $985 ($5 loss)
Roll #4: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad
Point established
$20 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #5: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $20
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 4
Bankroll decreased to $960 ($25 loss)
$20 bet on Don't Come 4 Odds <<<<#2
Roll #6: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad
Point established
$12 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#3
$5 bet on Don't Come
Roll #7: 11 (6.5) from manual roll pad
Don't Come bet lost $5
Bankroll decreased to $955 ($5 loss)
Roll #8: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad
Pass (point rolled)
Don't Pass bet lost $5
Don't Pass Odds bet lost $12
$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6
Bankroll decreased to $938 ($17 loss)
$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#4 no more bets until 7out
Roll #9: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad
Point established
Roll #10: 3 (2.1) from manual roll pad
Roll #11: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad
Pass (point rolled)
Roll #12: 7 (4.3) from manual roll pad
Pass (natural)
Don't Come 4 bet won $5
Don't Come 4 Odds bet won $10
Don't Come 6 bet won $5
Don't Come 6 Odds bet won $10
Bankroll increased to $968 ($30 gain)


Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
vegasrvp
vegasrvp
Joined: Jun 15, 2010
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March 19th, 2014 at 10:21:39 AM permalink
First off Sally, can I tell you that this is fun. I love this stuff.

Now for the details.

There are 4 total odds bets made per shooter max. If they run us all the way off the board eliminating all our wagers we wait for the next shooter.

YOU:
9,4,9,7,8 would be 4 bets with odds made but a 7 winner on the come out roll
lost a DP9
won two bets with odds (DC4,DC9), lost a DP and have only a DP8 with odds
do you make another don't come?

In this case we would have 9 point (1), DC 4(2), 9 don't loser replace the 9 from the DC(3), 7 winner pay the DC's, 8 point on the come out(4) no more bets on this shooter.
Shorter answer is NO. LOL

YOU:
Net $4 Loss on last shooter and not a $28 win
You are correct.....I did the math in my head and missed the second 6.

YOU:
I show a loss of only $32
You are also correct. I didn't account for replacing the 4.


So with these rules and looking to double vs lose a 100 unit bank roll are we still at 45% ish?

Second question, if after a losing session (100 unit loss) we then used a 200 unit and double base with a goal to only achieve returning the original 100 units are those odds improved?

Thanks again and please let me know when I get annoying.

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