March 9th, 2014 at 6:19:22 PM
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Quote:vegasrvpTo me the most important part is what you are considering a loss vs what I am considering a loss.

agreed

I went by what you posted earlier

"The loss moves you up the system and a win triggers a double up on he next roll."

my bet progression I used

bet # unit bet

1 1

2 1

3 1

4 2

5 2

6 4

7 4

8 8

9 8

10 16

11 16

12 32

13 32

14 64

15 64

Bet#1Quote:vegasrvpRoll example:

point come out roll is 6

Rolls of 2,5,9,8,8,5,4,11,12,6 winner means lose bet 1 move to next level

1

-1 net total

bet#2Quote:vegasrvppoint come out roll is 7

Lose bet 1

move to next level

1

-1 (-2 total)

bet#3Quote:vegasrvppoint come out roll is 11

lose bet 1

move to next level

1

-1 (-3 total)

bet#4Quote:vegasrvppoint come out roll is 5

rolls of 4,8,9,3,8,6,6,5 pint winner

lose bet 2

move to next level

2

-2 (-5 total)

Quote:vegasrvppoint come out roll is 3

winner win bet 2

move to next level double 2 (4)

*** Here I think you may not be following the rule below***

"The loss moves you up the system and a win triggers a double up on he next roll."

Only move to next level or bet after a loss

after a win double your last bet (parlay bet)

bet#5

2

+2 (-3 total)

*still at bet#5 (a win (last roll) triggers a double up on he next roll)

*unit bet = 4 (the double up or parlay bet)

I agree except I was on bet#5Quote:vegasrvppoint come out roll is 9

rolls of 4,6,5,10,3,5,2,7 out

winner of 8 units (less bets of 1,1,1,2 = 8-7=+1 unit for session)

Session complete move back to beginning

+4 (1 unit gain)

start over

it looks like I followed your rules perfectlyQuote:vegasrvpIs this what you thought? Also is this more clear?

the only event that you did not take into consideration is what happens after you make the 2nd and last 64unit bet and lose and you have, say, 84 units left?

I would just make another 64 unit - the max bet as I do not have enough to go to a 128 unit bet and that might be over the table limit too ($10 table max bet of $1000) and not just start over as that would give the lowest chance of getting back up and hitting my target I set at 510 units and dinner and dancing.

setup WinCraps and use my code and play your system

the average number of rolls to win or lose is about 1200

1700 on a win

800 on a loss

when you think on how a system can win or lose you need to consider every possible sequence of events

this is where a simulation comes in handy

how often do you think you should double a 255 starting bankroll?

It can never be greater than 50%

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

March 10th, 2014 at 9:55:07 AM
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Something just doesn't sit right in the over all numbers that are being thrown around.

I am in full agreement that long term this cannot and will not work, however, if there is a 59% chance that when a point is established I will be a winner playing the don't side.

How do I calculate hitting back to back don't winners? I'm guessing it is in the 34-35% range? This is eliminating both the 7/11 and 2/3 on the come out roll.

What I think is we may be looking at this backwards.

What are the odds of hitting 15 points out of 29 points established? (If we hit 15 points and go with the max rolls we would also hit 14 7outs in that same time)

Once we know that we could be calculate:

15 of 28

15 of 27

15 of 26 ect....thru 15 of 17.

Again.....over 1 million rolls this will bust like any other system based on the odds.

But, to go to a casino and win 10 units, bounce around tables and have some fun, I think you could do this for a good amount of time without a bust of -255 units. Can you hit 10 units 25+ times without a bust more then not.....who knows. Math probably says no and sitting for 1 million consecutive rolls will probably prove that conclusively. I personally do not have 50 hours a month for 10+ years to work out that kinda proof nor do I want to.

It is fun to play with the ideas though.

I am in full agreement that long term this cannot and will not work, however, if there is a 59% chance that when a point is established I will be a winner playing the don't side.

How do I calculate hitting back to back don't winners? I'm guessing it is in the 34-35% range? This is eliminating both the 7/11 and 2/3 on the come out roll.

What I think is we may be looking at this backwards.

What are the odds of hitting 15 points out of 29 points established? (If we hit 15 points and go with the max rolls we would also hit 14 7outs in that same time)

Once we know that we could be calculate:

15 of 28

15 of 27

15 of 26 ect....thru 15 of 17.

Again.....over 1 million rolls this will bust like any other system based on the odds.

But, to go to a casino and win 10 units, bounce around tables and have some fun, I think you could do this for a good amount of time without a bust of -255 units. Can you hit 10 units 25+ times without a bust more then not.....who knows. Math probably says no and sitting for 1 million consecutive rolls will probably prove that conclusively. I personally do not have 50 hours a month for 10+ years to work out that kinda proof nor do I want to.

It is fun to play with the ideas though.

March 10th, 2014 at 5:08:15 PM
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why are you only looking at how the don't pass wins once a point is established? what is that fixation all about? 2 wins will never cancel out a 7/11 on the come out roll.Quote:vegasrvpSomething just doesn't sit right in the over all numbers that are being thrown around.

I am in full agreement that long term this cannot and will not work, however, if there is a 59% chance that when a point is established I will be a winner playing the don't side.

How do I calculate hitting back to back don't winners? I'm guessing it is in the 34-35% range? This is eliminating both the 7/11 and 2/3 on the come out roll.

What I think is we may be looking at this backwards.

What are the odds of hitting 15 points out of 29 points established? (If we hit 15 points and go with the max rolls we would also hit 14 7outs in that same time)

Once we know that we could be calculate:

15 of 28

15 of 27

15 of 26 ect....thru 15 of 17.

Again.....over 1 million rolls this will bust like any other system based on the odds.

you need to show better math to convince most that you are correct there.

look at every possible outcome and you will see why that 59% value is meaningless as I pointed out a few times before. I mean totally.

Here is data for the don't pass. The ways it wins, loses and pushes.

Event | Freq. |
---|---|

Natural | 440 |

Craps2,3 | 165 |

Push 12 | 55 |

4 Made | 55 |

4 Not | 110 |

5 Made | 88 |

5 Not | 132 |

6 Made | 125 |

6 Not | 150 |

8 Made | 125 |

8 Not | 150 |

9 Made | 88 |

9 Not | 132 |

10 Made | 55 |

10 Not | 110 |

Totals - | 1980 |

we add the events up and get this data

event | prob |
---|---|

Natural | 0.222222222 |

Craps2,3 | 0.083333333 |

Push 12 | 0.027777778 |

lose on point | 536 |

win on point | 784 |

lose on point | 0.270707071 |

win on point | 0.395959596 |

total | 1 |

prob win | 0.479292929 |

prob push | 0.027777778 |

prob loss | 0.492929293 |

prob win no push | 0.492987013 |

prob loss no push | 0.507012987 |

If you use a 255 unit bankroll and want to win 10 units and quit playing and starting with a new 255unit bankroll at a future time your chance of winning is just under 96.2% (255/265)Quote:vegasrvpBut, to go to a casino and win 10 units, bounce around tables and have some fun,

I think you could do this for a good amount of time without a bust of -255 units.

I simulated this (you can do the same with WinCraps and my code) and it come in at 95.8% to win 1 session 1 time.

Now you want to win 25 times in a row to win 250 units

try 26 times in a row so a loss will only wipe out your total winnings

95.8%^26 = ?

That is your chance to win 26 sessions in a row without busting out your 255 bankroll

not impressive enough?

just playing with the 255 bankroll and trying to double while never using any of the winnings you have accumulated is about 45% success from my earlier simulation. 4 out of 9 or 1 out of 3? tough choice!

you should know now. But I think you must prove this to yourself.Quote:vegasrvpCan you hit 10 units 25+ times without a bust more then not.....who knows. Math probably says no

your current system wins on a first win or needs 2 wins in a row to win and start the progression over.

sometimes (55%) it can not do that with a 255 unit bankroll

maybe you should risk more to lose and win a few more times.

so true.Quote:vegasrvpIt is fun to play with the ideas though

and no fun being bummed out from the results from your ideas played many times

Have fun

see you in Las Vegas at the end of this month!

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

March 16th, 2014 at 8:00:47 AM
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Wanna mess with some new stuff?

Can I ask you to run another SIM?

I want to see a Sim on the don't pass and the don't come.

Initial bet 1 unit on the don't pass. (2x3x4)

5 base = 12 odds on 6/8

5 base = 15 odds on 5/9

5 base = 20 odds on 4/10

7, 11, 2, 3 ,12 just rebet

Once point is established use same betting strategy with up to four don't come wagers with same odds

Upon 7 out start over

If any or all don't come wagers lose we do not exceed a total of 4 don't comes per one 7 out.

I hope this makes some sense and if you have any need for clarification please ask.

Can I ask you to run another SIM?

I want to see a Sim on the don't pass and the don't come.

Initial bet 1 unit on the don't pass. (2x3x4)

5 base = 12 odds on 6/8

5 base = 15 odds on 5/9

5 base = 20 odds on 4/10

7, 11, 2, 3 ,12 just rebet

Once point is established use same betting strategy with up to four don't come wagers with same odds

Upon 7 out start over

If any or all don't come wagers lose we do not exceed a total of 4 don't comes per one 7 out.

I hope this makes some sense and if you have any need for clarification please ask.

March 16th, 2014 at 8:22:47 PM
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Quote:vegasrvpWanna mess with some new stuff?

Can I ask you to run another SIM?

I want to see a Sim on the don't pass and the don't come.

Initial bet 1 unit on the don't pass. (2x3x4)

5 base = 12 odds on 6/8

5 base = 15 odds on 5/9

5 base = 20 odds on 4/10

7, 11, 2, 3 ,12 just rebet

Once point is established use same betting strategy with up to four don't come wagers with same odds

Upon 7 out start over

If any or all don't come wagers lose we do not exceed a total of 4 don't comes per one 7 out.

I hope this makes some sense and if you have any need for clarification please ask.

Those bets are straight 2X odds.

March 17th, 2014 at 12:49:24 PM
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You're right:

I would like to know about starting with 200 units and how many times you will bust out vs doubling your 200?

I would like to know about starting with 200 units and how many times you will bust out vs doubling your 200?

March 18th, 2014 at 12:36:49 PM
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do you mean a $200 bankroll or a $1000 bankrollQuote:vegasrvpI would like to know about starting with 200 units and how many times you will bust out vs doubling your 200?

You are flat betting at $5 (before odds) so $200 = 40 unit bankroll

$1000 = 200 unit bankroll

easier to double 40 units than 200 units

45% vs 37%

(this assumes that as the bankroll grows you do not take any away until you have hit your target bankroll. if you do your risk of ruin goes up and up and up)

now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter

but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter

starts out like this

7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

you now have lost 3 dpass bets with odds and have 3 dcome bets with odds

you are not at all concerned about the hot shooter wiping out multiple dpass with odds bets?

maybe remove all the dcome bets with odds and chicken out. This shooter is causing you to lose too much.

got to feel better now, but

next roll 7 win

lost another dpass but won 3 dcomes with odds, oh no

still a loss to show for from one hot shooter

the code I used for WinCraps is a simple adjustment to the popular "risk of ruin" file that is free from the WC site

maybe you should get WinCraps and run these yourself

that way you can play with max 3 bets lost, then max 2 bets lost, then max4 bets lost with odds for both dpass-dcome

and as many combination of systems as you can think of

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

March 18th, 2014 at 6:59:32 PM
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The 7/11 on the don't line, and the don't come are just played as they do not exist.

The don't line initial bet is also counted as one of the four potential losses in a session so I guess I worded it wrong. It would be a max of 3 don't come bets with double odds along with the don't line initial come out.

I am looking to double 200 units so on a flat bet of $5 that would be $1000.

I have no doubt that there will be occasional losses. The max loss per shooter would be $90 with a flat $5 bet.

Example: Point 10 with $20 odds. Don't come 9 with $15 odds, Don't come 4 with $20 odds and Don't come 5 with $15.

$20+$20+$15+$15+$5base (4) = $90.

This is the max.

If I take the total units down to 100 vs 200 and with the don't come max at three will this change a lot in my favor.

On more thing. If I have a come out roll of 9 followed by a 4 then followed by another 9 and finally a 8 there will be no more don't come wagers as the four bets have posted. It is 4 total don't / don't come wager not four that actually go up.

Example:

5 point followed by 6, 9 6, 8,6,10,7out will be a winner on the 5, 9 and second 6 and a loss on the first 6.

5= winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6 = loss of $17 (5 base plus 12 odds)

9=winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6=winner of $15 (5 base plus 12 odds)

Total win = $28 (4 total bets with 3 wins and 1 loss)

YOU SAID:

now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter

but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter

starts out like this

7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

7= -5

11= -5

7= -5

4 = don't point with 20 odds

4 = -25 (LOSS 1)

6 = don't come point

11= -5

8= don't come point

3= +5

8= -17 (LOSS 2)

if 7 comes now I lose another 5 for don't come and win the 6 for =15

total for shooter = -47 or just under 10 units

I agree this is a bad scenario but a 10 unit swing is not the end of the world.

I hope this clarifies a little.

Thanks,

Adam

The don't line initial bet is also counted as one of the four potential losses in a session so I guess I worded it wrong. It would be a max of 3 don't come bets with double odds along with the don't line initial come out.

I am looking to double 200 units so on a flat bet of $5 that would be $1000.

I have no doubt that there will be occasional losses. The max loss per shooter would be $90 with a flat $5 bet.

Example: Point 10 with $20 odds. Don't come 9 with $15 odds, Don't come 4 with $20 odds and Don't come 5 with $15.

$20+$20+$15+$15+$5base (4) = $90.

This is the max.

If I take the total units down to 100 vs 200 and with the don't come max at three will this change a lot in my favor.

On more thing. If I have a come out roll of 9 followed by a 4 then followed by another 9 and finally a 8 there will be no more don't come wagers as the four bets have posted. It is 4 total don't / don't come wager not four that actually go up.

Example:

5 point followed by 6, 9 6, 8,6,10,7out will be a winner on the 5, 9 and second 6 and a loss on the first 6.

5= winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6 = loss of $17 (5 base plus 12 odds)

9=winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6=winner of $15 (5 base plus 12 odds)

Total win = $28 (4 total bets with 3 wins and 1 loss)

YOU SAID:

now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter

but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter

starts out like this

7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

7= -5

11= -5

7= -5

4 = don't point with 20 odds

4 = -25 (LOSS 1)

6 = don't come point

11= -5

8= don't come point

3= +5

8= -17 (LOSS 2)

if 7 comes now I lose another 5 for don't come and win the 6 for =15

total for shooter = -47 or just under 10 units

I agree this is a bad scenario but a 10 unit swing is not the end of the world.

I hope this clarifies a little.

Thanks,

Adam

March 19th, 2014 at 9:36:44 AM
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four potential losses per shooterQuote:vegasrvpThe 7/11 on the don't line, and the don't come are just played as they do not exist.

The don't line initial bet is also counted as one of the four potential losses in a session so I guess I worded it wrong. It would be a max of 3 don't come bets with double odds along with the don't line initial come out.

I am looking to double 200 units so on a flat bet of $5 that would be $1000.

so after 4 total odds bets are made are you finished betting for the current shooter's hand? or

do you wait until you see how many bets you actually win/lose before making any more bets?

9,4,9,7,8 would be 4 bets with odds made but a 7 winner on the come out roll

lost a DP9

won two bets with odds (DC4,DC9), lost a DP and have only a DP8 with odds

do you make another don't come?

Quote:vegasrvpIf I take the total units down to 100 vs 200 and with the don't come max at three will this change a lot in my favor.

it is always easier to double a smaller number of units than a larger number of units if the betting unit stays the same.

here is how I see this exampleQuote:vegasrvpOn more thing. If I have a come out roll of 9 followed by a 4 then followed by another 9 and finally a 8 there will be no more don't come wagers as the four bets have posted. It is 4 total don't / don't come wager not four that actually go up.

`New game started`

Beginning bankroll: $1000

------New shooter coming out----------

$5 bet on Don't Pass

Roll #1: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad

Point established

$15 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #2: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 4

$20 bet on Don't Come 4 Odds <<<<#2

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #3: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad

Pass (point rolled)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Don't Pass Odds bet lost $15

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 9

Bankroll decreased to $980 ($20 loss)

$15 bet on Don't Come 9 Odds <<<<#3

Roll #4: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad

Point established

$12 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#4 last bet made until 7out

I do not agree you win $28.Quote:vegasrvpExample:

5 point followed by 6, 9 6, 8,6,10,7out will be a winner on the 5, 9 and second 6 and a loss on the first 6.

5= winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6 = loss of $17 (5 base plus 12 odds)

9=winner of $15 (5 base plus 15 odds)

6=winner of $15 (5 base plus 12 odds)

Total win = $28 (4 total bets with 3 wins and 1 loss)

I see your example as this. You say you stop making don't come bets after 4 total odds bets are made

`New game started`

Beginning bankroll: $1000

------New shooter coming out----------

$5 bet on Don't Pass

Roll #1: 5 (4.1) from manual roll pad

Point established

$15 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #2: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6

$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#2

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #3: 9 (5.4) from manual roll pad

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 9

$15 bet on Don't Come 9 Odds <<<<#3

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #4: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad

Don't Come 6 bet lost $5

Don't Come 6 Odds bet lost $12

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6

$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#4 and no more bets to make until 7out

Bankroll decreased to $983 ($17 loss)

Roll #5: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad

Roll #6: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad

Don't Come 6 bet lost $5

Don't Come 6 Odds bet lost $12

Bankroll decreased to $966 ($17 loss)

Roll #7: 10 (5.5) from manual roll pad

Roll #8: 7 (4.3) from manual roll pad

Miss (seven-out)

Don't Pass bet won $5

Don't Pass Odds bet won $10

Don't Come 9 bet won $5

Don't Come 9 Odds bet won $10

Bankroll increased to $996 ($30 gain)

------New shooter coming out----------

Net $4 Loss on last shooter and not a $28 win

I show a loss of only $32Quote:vegasrvpYOU SAID:

now you are interested in don't come losing at most 4 times with odds by one shooter

but you do not count the number of times you lose the don't pass with odds? this could get messy when a "hot" shooter

starts out like this

7,11,7,4,4,6,11,6,8,3,8

7= -5

11= -5

7= -5

4 = don't point with 20 odds

4 = -25 (LOSS 1)

6 = don't come point

11= -5

8= don't come point

3= +5

8= -17 (LOSS 2)

if 7 comes now I lose another 5 for don't come and win the 6 for =15

total for shooter = -47 or just under 10 units

I agree this is a bad scenario but a 10 unit swing is not the end of the world.

`New game started`

Beginning bankroll: $1000

------New shooter coming out----------

$5 bet on Don't Pass

Roll #1: 7 (5.2) from manual roll pad

Pass (natural)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Bankroll decreased to $995 ($5 loss)

Roll #2: 11 (6.5) from manual roll pad

Pass (natural)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Bankroll decreased to $990 ($5 loss)

Roll #3: 7 (5.2) from manual roll pad

Pass (natural)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Bankroll decreased to $985 ($5 loss)

Roll #4: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad

Point established

$20 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#1

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #5: 4 (3.1) from manual roll pad

Pass (point rolled)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Don't Pass Odds bet lost $20

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 4

Bankroll decreased to $960 ($25 loss)

$20 bet on Don't Come 4 Odds <<<<#2

Roll #6: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad

Point established

$12 bet on Don't Pass Odds <<<<#3

$5 bet on Don't Come

Roll #7: 11 (6.5) from manual roll pad

Don't Come bet lost $5

Bankroll decreased to $955 ($5 loss)

Roll #8: 6 (4.2) from manual roll pad

Pass (point rolled)

Don't Pass bet lost $5

Don't Pass Odds bet lost $12

$5 Don't Come bet moved to Don't Come 6

Bankroll decreased to $938 ($17 loss)

$12 bet on Don't Come 6 Odds <<<<#4 no more bets until 7out

Roll #9: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad

Point established

Roll #10: 3 (2.1) from manual roll pad

Roll #11: 8 (5.3) from manual roll pad

Pass (point rolled)

Roll #12: 7 (4.3) from manual roll pad

Pass (natural)

Don't Come 4 bet won $5

Don't Come 4 Odds bet won $10

Don't Come 6 bet won $5

Don't Come 6 Odds bet won $10

Bankroll increased to $968 ($30 gain)

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

March 19th, 2014 at 10:21:39 AM
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First off Sally, can I tell you that this is fun. I love this stuff.

Now for the details.

There are 4 total odds bets made per shooter max. If they run us all the way off the board eliminating all our wagers we wait for the next shooter.

YOU:

9,4,9,7,8 would be 4 bets with odds made but a 7 winner on the come out roll

lost a DP9

won two bets with odds (DC4,DC9), lost a DP and have only a DP8 with odds

do you make another don't come?

In this case we would have 9 point (1), DC 4(2), 9 don't loser replace the 9 from the DC(3), 7 winner pay the DC's, 8 point on the come out(4) no more bets on this shooter.

Shorter answer is NO. LOL

YOU:

Net $4 Loss on last shooter and not a $28 win

You are correct.....I did the math in my head and missed the second 6.

YOU:

I show a loss of only $32

You are also correct. I didn't account for replacing the 4.

So with these rules and looking to double vs lose a 100 unit bank roll are we still at 45% ish?

Second question, if after a losing session (100 unit loss) we then used a 200 unit and double base with a goal to only achieve returning the original 100 units are those odds improved?

Thanks again and please let me know when I get annoying.

Now for the details.

There are 4 total odds bets made per shooter max. If they run us all the way off the board eliminating all our wagers we wait for the next shooter.

YOU:

9,4,9,7,8 would be 4 bets with odds made but a 7 winner on the come out roll

lost a DP9

won two bets with odds (DC4,DC9), lost a DP and have only a DP8 with odds

do you make another don't come?

In this case we would have 9 point (1), DC 4(2), 9 don't loser replace the 9 from the DC(3), 7 winner pay the DC's, 8 point on the come out(4) no more bets on this shooter.

Shorter answer is NO. LOL

YOU:

Net $4 Loss on last shooter and not a $28 win

You are correct.....I did the math in my head and missed the second 6.

YOU:

I show a loss of only $32

You are also correct. I didn't account for replacing the 4.

So with these rules and looking to double vs lose a 100 unit bank roll are we still at 45% ish?

Second question, if after a losing session (100 unit loss) we then used a 200 unit and double base with a goal to only achieve returning the original 100 units are those odds improved?

Thanks again and please let me know when I get annoying.