Judgedave
Judgedave
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
February 24th, 2014 at 8:57:21 AM permalink
Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
February 24th, 2014 at 10:13:08 AM permalink
Quote: Judgedave

Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!



I see it as just another bet. Thats pretty easy to do at 34:1 compared to getting nothing from casinos that don't offer this.
8 more years till retirement.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
February 24th, 2014 at 10:43:43 AM permalink
Quote: Judgedave

Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!



As pointed out, Wiz has the math on that bet, and I believe it comes in around 7%.
You have the ALL listed at 160:1 though. I have only seen the bet pay at 175 for 1, which again, is what the Wiz did the math for. At 160 for 1, that would make the HE worse.

It's a fun bet. I have hit the bet for $1,225 three times, and the Small or Tall a couple more, so this is one bet on the craps table that I am definitely ahead on for my lifetime.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
February 24th, 2014 at 2:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

As pointed out, Wiz has the math on that bet, and I believe it comes in around 7%.
You have the ALL listed at 160:1 though. I have only seen the bet pay at 175 for 1, which again, is what the Wiz did the math for. At 160 for 1, that would make the HE worse.

It's a fun bet. I have hit the bet for $1,225 three times, and the Small or Tall a couple more, so this is one bet on the craps table that I am definitely ahead on for my lifetime.



I saw this bet made 1 time only in all the years i've played. I remember the shooter only needed the 12 and he rolled it making every number before 7 out.

Even though I do see on many occasions the small or tall quite a bit, I still think the firebet is best for those long term prop bets. I see way too many made over the years.
8 more years till retirement.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
February 24th, 2014 at 3:27:07 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I saw this bet made 1 time only in all the years i've played. I remember the shooter only needed the 12 and he rolled it making every number before 7 out.



Really? I saw it made twice in about an hour once.
Judgedave
Judgedave
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
February 24th, 2014 at 8:52:54 PM permalink
Thanks for the great responses. I was way off on this being the worst bet of all time. Are there any links to the actual math of the calculations? I am 25 years removed from combinatory math, and would love to see how this was worked out. I'm not sure if "The Wiz" has that available on here or not.
PBguy
PBguy
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 278
Joined: Sep 4, 2013
February 24th, 2014 at 9:07:26 PM permalink
A local casino had this bet for a few months. I hit it the very first time I bet it (all small IIRC). Never hit it again after that but then I didn't bet it regularly. I think they found it too cumbersome to keep track of to make it worthwhile so they got rid of it. Plus regulars stopped betting it after the novelty wore off.
Judgedave
Judgedave
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
February 24th, 2014 at 9:22:00 PM permalink
A friend of mine who works at the local Illinois riverboat is a craps dealer where this bet is just now being offered, and he is bitching about that very thing... he says it is really slowing the game down.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
February 24th, 2014 at 10:43:48 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

Even though I do see on many occasions the small or tall quite a bit, I still think the firebet is best for those long term prop bets. I see way too many made over the years.

Um...the Fire Bet is worse (as far as HE is concerned). As for the All or Nothing/All Tall/All Small bets, people play this all the time at the Wynn, MGM Grand, etc.


Quote: Judgedave

A friend of mine who works at the local Illinois riverboat is a craps dealer where this bet is just now being offered, and he is bitching about that very thing... he says it is really slowing the game down.

I don't see how this could be slowing the game down so much. All the box needs to do is mark each number after it's rolled. That takes about 2 seconds. I can see how it would get annoying to constantly keep track of all the numbers, but I don't see how it slows everything down.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 3:23:20 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Um...the Fire Bet is worse (as far as HE is concerned). As for the All or Nothing/All Tall/All Small bets, people play this all the time at the Wynn, MGM Grand, etc.



Either way, I would hedge against the last number needed. If tall/small had 1 point number left to make to collect 34:1 then I would lay $ against it to secure profit.
8 more years till retirement.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
February 25th, 2014 at 3:26:15 AM permalink
Yup, lay against that 12. Sheer genius I tell ya!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
  • Threads: 33
  • Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 3:30:53 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Yup, lay against that 12. Sheer genius I tell ya!



Funny I was just thinking of that too, I was thinking if the last numbers are place/lay numbers but then depends on the max bet for that prop bet.
8 more years till retirement.
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 6:54:40 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Um...the Fire Bet is worse (as far as HE is concerned). As for the All or Nothing/All Tall/All Small bets, people play this all the time at the Wynn, MGM Grand, etc.


I don't see how this could be slowing the game down so much. All the box needs to do is mark each number after it's rolled. That takes about 2 seconds. I can see how it would get annoying to constantly keep track of all the numbers, but I don't see how it slows everything down.



I've seen it slow the game down when the box forgets to mark numbers. Players will try to argue about what numbers have/haven't been hit. Of course this is no different than anything else regarding craps.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9557
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
February 25th, 2014 at 7:12:28 AM permalink
A lot of talk at Harrington about the House not liking how lucky players were getting. I put that talk down to dealers trying to understand the casino not wanting to offer it for other reasons.

But that is what we heard.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
wudged
wudged
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 998
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 7:22:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

A lot of talk at Harrington about the House not liking how lucky players were getting. I put that talk down to dealers trying to understand the casino not wanting to offer it for other reasons.

But that is what we heard.



Same thing at Resorts in AC.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
February 25th, 2014 at 7:32:18 AM permalink
When the box and stick are paying attention, it does not slow the game down one bit. My last trip is the only time I have played the bet and not hit some of it at least one time.
Funny story from The Hard Rock in Biloxi;
Early in the morning, three players on the table, and the box had just gone on break, or it may have been shift change, I can't recall. Anyway, the new box is bitching up a storm about the previous guy, not doing his job, not taking care of the bank right, paperwork not right, etc. Well, he is forgetting to mark about every 3rd number, so the stick does it, or the players remind him.
Shooter has snake eyes left for the Small bet, then 7 out. Next shooter rolls a couple of high numbers, then throws the snake eyes. Box goes to mark the snake eyes, and voila, that is the last number left to mark. You can see the wheels turning in his head, as he is thinking back to when was the last 7 out. Only 2 of us were playing the bet, he thinks about it for a second, and then says, "Hey, what do you know, the Small finally hit."
After all the complaining he had been doing about the other box, he didn't want to admit he had forgotten to take the numbers down on the 7 out. And we had been losing pretty badly so I think he decided giving us $175 was better than admitting a mistake. It was pretty funny, none of the dealers, nor the stick, nor the players, said a word, but you could tell EVERYONE was thinking the same thing.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
mustangsally
mustangsally
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
February 25th, 2014 at 7:42:41 AM permalink
removed
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
Judgedave
Judgedave
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
February 25th, 2014 at 8:12:43 AM permalink
That's exactly what's happening with this new bet at my friend's Illinois casino workplace. The workers (understandably) become creatures of habit, and the habit of marking each roll is far from taking effect so far.
Judgedave
Judgedave
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Feb 24, 2014
February 25th, 2014 at 8:33:06 AM permalink
Thanks so much for the links, Sally! I am swamped with tax work right now (notice that it hasn't stopped me from setting up a user name and joining your fine forum lol), but will look forward to checking out the information out when I can get a breather or two.

I'm big on minimizing house advantage (I know, boring), but am fascinated by the odds of pretty much anything offered.

There are three local riverboats in the Quad Cities on the Mississippi (2 in Iowa, 1 in Illinois), and I suspect the Illinois one is trying to offer a few different things to compete.
hwccdealer
hwccdealer
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 365
Joined: Jun 4, 2013
February 25th, 2014 at 4:14:24 PM permalink
Quote: Judgedave

Hello. Obviously, the new casino bet on which I am about to inquire is a BAD bet... I'm just looking for confirmation as HOW bad. The bet is simple. You can either choose "All High"(8,9,10,11,12) or "All Low"(2,3,4,5,6). ie., betting All High you are betting on all five of the high numbers to be thrown before a 7 comes up. The payout is 34-1. I calculated the probability at (6X3X2X1.5X1.2)=64.8:1, which would give the house an advantage on the order of 47%. Are my calculations correct? They also offer an even more ridiculous bet where the player chooses All All (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12) and pays out a "generous" 160-1. IF my earlier probability reasoning is correct, then THAT probability is a staggering (64.8^2)=4199:1. I look forward to input, and thanks!



I saw a bet like that at NYNY. I couldn't make heads or tails of it there because I had never seen it before. I stuck with traditional bets and never ventured to anything more ambitious than the hardways.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
February 26th, 2014 at 7:28:22 AM permalink
Less of a HE than the hardways bets, and a much nicer payout. But, the killer is those come out 7 rolls. If you are playing $5,$5,$5 for Small,Tall,All, that is a $15 hit each time a come out 7 rolls. And at $10,10,10, that really smarts. Turns that $10 PL come out advantage into mince meat every time.

I first saw the bet at Beau Rivage in Biloxi, and that weekend it hit so many times that I was certain I would not see it when I went back in 6 months. But it was still there and in conversing with the dealers they indicated it seemed to run in streaks. When people start hitting it, it gets hit a lot. But most of the time, it makes money for the house.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
dicesitter
dicesitter
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 1157
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
February 28th, 2014 at 11:43:56 AM permalink
this bet does not slow the game down and it is fun for the table and a good way to tip the
dealers with the potential of the $1 tip being much more for the crew.

Just make sure you play at table where you can bring it back up if you throw a 7
on the come out.

dicesetter
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 417
Joined: Sep 30, 2011
August 18th, 2014 at 8:30:03 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


with a house edge of about 8% and a payoff at 174 to 1 could be a short term loser for any casino when luck is on the player's side
that will make the casino grumpy about the bet and maybe just get rid of it.

Sally



I can't see any casino settling for an 8% rake on a 174:1 bet. I'd expect a double-digit HE on such a long shot as this.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
August 19th, 2014 at 7:47:16 AM permalink
I turned a $1000 bloodbath into a $500 one, by hitting a 4-2-4 ATS last week at the IP, Sweet. The one thing you must do is have a line bet greater than the ATS side bet IMHO.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
  • Jump to: