Odds of hitting 9 Points in a row vs 42 rolls without rolling a 7.
What are the odds of shooting (I play on the dont pass) 9 points in a row? (to include to come out rolls as points, of course) It's like less then 1 percent right? anybody know the exact number? If I lose. I double up my next bet
Also
I sometimes switch it up and I chase the seven progressively betting the Hoppin 7's. I love that because people always watch me and ask me what im doing. It works for me for the most part. Some days I have bad luck tho. But assuming I had enough money. Whats the odds / Percentage etc of rolling the dice 42 times in a row without a 7 ever showing (even on come out rolls)?
As you can see Both ways to play kinda rely on the appearance of the 7. What way has a better chance to win mathematically? Hoping somebody wont hit 10 points in a row or hoping somebody doesnt have a golden arm and can throw longer then 42 straight rolls without a 7? (come out roll or not)
excellent!Quote: SluistroHey guys I'm a big Don't pass shooter.
I'm looking for the odds, Percentages, fractions. you name it. On the couple questions I have.
What are the odds of shooting (I play on the dont pass) 9 points in a row?
(to include to come out rolls as points, of course)
It's like less then 1 percent right?
anybody know the exact number?
If I lose. I double up my next bet
exact number? from = (244/495)^9
maybe
3,065,550,233,359,913,058,304 / 1,784,213,373,991,486,130,859,375
or
about 0.00171815225580443451029394010473
or about 1 in 582
This is only for the next 9 pass line bets
the more bets made, the higher the probability for at least 1 such run
Yes, the 3 way 7 betQuote: SluistroAlso
I sometimes switch it up and I chase the seven progressively betting the Hoppin 7's.
I love that because people always watch me and ask me what im doing.
It works for me for the most part.
Some days I have bad luck tho.
But assuming I had enough money.
Whats the odds / Percentage etc of rolling the dice 42 times in a row without a 7 ever showing (even on come out rolls)?
= (5/6)^42
about 1 in 2,116.471
This is for the very next 42 rolls only.
the more rolls made, the higher the probability for at least 1 such run
you now can answer your last question
Rock On 2014
Good Luck
Quote: SluistroSo I'm quadrupling my odds by chasing the 7 instead. that's awesome man thanks for your knowledge I really appreciate it. I need to build a bankroll because I never see somebody roll longer then 40 rolls ever. So you can just rake in the cash day by day lol. I know it's possible and probably done, somewhat often, I personally just never see it lol. Thanks again!
Just remember that it WILL happen at some point and it's gonna hurt - BAD! It will take all your winnings and your bankroll too. You may not have seen it yet, but the more you play, the sooner you will see it. Be very careful, and don't risk what you can't afford to loose if it should happen the very next time you play.
Another math question. According to Probability. since it's a 1/2100 chance somebody WILL roll farther then 42 rolls. does that build up the opposite way too? Say I sit at the craps table for 10 hours. does that 1/2100 chance diminish? because of house edge or whatever. or am I just thinking wrong. Because I know it's bound to happen.
Quote: SluistroYea I know. I know there is no sure fire way to win on craps, but that would be an interesting run for sure. But if you get lucky enough for you not to see it for awhile. All your profits could soften the blow when it does happen. and just start over. if anything you'd get crazy comps and hotel rooms etc haha. But you're right I'd never use more then I could afford to lose. I'm not wired like that. I'd cry if I lost my car payment on the table or something lol. But i'd never get to that point.
Another math question. According to Probability. since it's a 1/2100 chance somebody WILL roll farther then 42 rolls. does that build up the opposite way too? Say I sit at the craps table for 10 hours. does that 1/2100 chance diminish? because of house edge or whatever. or am I just thinking wrong. Because I know it's bound to happen.
Odds remain the same because the dice have no memory. Every roll has the same odds as the first roll.
It is not bound to happen.Quote: SluistroAccording to Probability. since it's a 1/2100 chance somebody WILL roll farther then 42 rolls.
does that build up the opposite way too?
Say I sit at the craps table for 10 hours.
does that 1/2100 chance diminish?
because of house edge or whatever. or am I just thinking wrong.
Because I know it's bound to happen.
The more trials or attempts, the greater the chance of it (a 42 roll event) happening at least 1 time.
1 in 2100 is 2100 sets of 42 rolls.
different from just roll the dice and wait X number of rolls until 42 in a row happens
that average is about 12,693 rolls
and even for that many rolls, there is still about a 36.8% chance it has yet to happen.
far from 0%
of course you need a large bankroll to go 42 rolls on a negative progression.
other ways to win on a 7
I have never seen a craps shooter (30 years or so at the tables)
roll more than 40 rolls without a 7
came close many times
It just never happened when I was there.
I heard it has happened many times.
not on my watch
Good Luck
sure systems can be fun especially home grown.Quote: SluistroThe cheapest I came across for a progressive bet is $4800 for 42 rolls.
and that including "waiting for 10 rolls of the dice to pass before starting to bet.
" A "system" I know. but hey "systems" can be fun. And I made it myself. (well maybe somebody else tried it too but I came up with the numbers myself.
I am not a big believer in playing the waiting game for X rolls and then start to bet.
I guess I have more fun betting.
You will miss many 7s letting 10 rolls go by.
about 83.85% of them. so you are hunting for those 16 out of 100 on average.
1 16.666667%
2 30.555556%
3 42.129630%
4 51.774691%
5 59.812243%
6 66.510202%
7 72.091835%
8 76.743196%
9 80.619330%
10 83.849442%
11 86.541201%
12 88.784335%
13 90.653612%
14 92.211343%
15 93.509453%
16 94.591211%
17 95.492676%
18 96.243896%
19 96.869914%
20 97.391595%
sounds fun
have fun win or lose
the casinos will love you for betting the 3way7 bet
even while you are winning
Quote: SluistroHey guys Does anybody have a list or know of any and all casinos (preferably AC) or vegas or where ever that they pay 5 to 1 on "Any Seven" ? I know most casinos pay 4 to 1. But Im looking for best odds. Thanks!
5 to 1 on any seven would be fair odds. So i don't know of any casino that would offer it, or why they would offer it.
By the way, you mentioned earlier that you wanted to "build a bankroll." You should be aware that craps is a negative game and you cannot build a bankroll from it unless you go to dealer school.
If you really want to build a bankroll from gambling, you should take up poker.
Solid advice. and does not require a large bankroll to find out if you have the skills to be a winner.
Low level tournaments provide a great opportunity at a cheap price.
that would be a 0% HE bet that could be made on any roll.Quote: SluistroHey guys Does anybody have a list or know of any and all casinos (preferably AC) or vegas or where ever that they pay 5 to 1 on "Any Seven" ?
I have never seen that in the US and should never see it
maybe something like 4.5 to 1 in a different country outside the USA (down under)
or 5 for 1Quote: SluistroI know most casinos pay 4 to 1. But Im looking for best odds. Thanks!
keep looking (maybe online - trust factor not factored in)
Thought I could see it on one of these pics
what? no 7 bet?
maybe Paul Rodgers had it removed
bet the 3 after 20 rolls, the odds are already in your favor and increase your bet only
$1 each time it does not hit. Bet the 11 the same way. the odds are in your favor.
Hop the 7's after all 7 is the number that comes up the most often
Bet the pass line and keep doubling until you win
Bet the dont pass and do the same
Lay a 4 or 10 on every come out roll
All these bets will cost you your house if you bet enough.
then again you could just bet a $5 pass line bet and $5 dont pass and the fire
bet.
The last one maybe has the best future. The odds of making a 6 point fire bet is
6192- 1 and the number of expected 12"s out of 6192 rolls is only 172. So you take
172x5 that is $860 and if you hit the 6 point fire bet you get back $5000
dicesetter
Quote: SluistroHmmm I could've swore I thought I saw a casino paying 5 to 1. eh could've been wrong. I totally know it's a negative progression game. It is called Gambling for a reason haha. But seriously whens the last time you saw somebody roll over 42 times without hitting a seven? come out roll or not. It CAN happen but Im hoping on I make a few thousand before that happens. Even if it did. Say I made 13k and it finally hit over 40. I'll still be 9 grand ahead and i'll start all over... It makes gambling less like gambling haha. I know it's not a free ticket to paradise but it's worth trying. Oh and poker! I love poker! I won a tournament the other day! awesome game!
Sluistro --
You're just using a negative progression betting system. That will mean a lot of small wins and a few devastating losses. If you MUST play this way, I would recommend you find a game with a lower house edge than prop bets at craps. The house edge for "any 7," for example, is 16.67%. That's through the roof. You'd be better off at roulette (5.26%)! If you must use a negative progression, do it on a low-house-edge bet like the line bets at craps or player-banker at baccarat. It will save you a lot of money.
one would need a bankroll of 6132 units
and that would be enough to make 32 bets in the progression
The 7 bet would be easier but would require way more cash to make a profit at each step for 32 rolls.
I can not locate that file and do not want to make it either
the probability of winning by the 33rd roll = 0.9970745 or you lose 6132 units
The average net win = 7.827579418 units
so one would need to win 784 times in a row , on average - could be a bit more or less -
to double the 6132 starting bankroll before the first loss.
success to double the starting bankroll = 0.9970745^784 = 0.100564734
it be gambling (unless you have a very different progression than the one I have below.
It is designed to win the least and have the progression increase the slowest - last the longest.
I could have made an error in it. Excel did it.)
compare that to a 10step Marty betting the Pass Line only and no odds
just starting at a $5 bet and doubling for 10 times
bankroll required = $5,115.00
max bet required= $2,560.00
need to win ONLY 1,023 times in a row
99.8876% = prob of winning $5 within the 10 steps
99.8876%^1023 = 31.654692%. = prob of doubling before the first loss
3 times more likely in this example
why?
one better know why
the house edge
for any other type of progressions, the math can easily be done
of course you do not have to try to double your bankroll.
you can have a win goal to be lower
the math for that left to the reader.
BTW
just betting pass with 2X odds can double bankroll around the 45% mark. (depends on the bankroll too)
I guess that could be too boring for many
| roll | bet | unit | lost | won | net | down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
| 6 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 11 | 32 |
| 7 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 5 | 32 |
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 39 | 12 | 48 |
| 9 | 9 | 3 | 36 | 39 | 3 | 48 |
| 10 | 12 | 4 | 45 | 52 | 7 | 64 |
| 11 | 15 | 5 | 57 | 65 | 8 | 80 |
| 12 | 18 | 6 | 72 | 78 | 6 | 96 |
| 13 | 21 | 7 | 90 | 91 | 1 | 112 |
| 14 | 27 | 9 | 111 | 117 | 6 | 144 |
| 15 | 33 | 11 | 138 | 143 | 5 | 176 |
| 16 | 42 | 14 | 171 | 182 | 11 | 224 |
| 17 | 51 | 17 | 213 | 221 | 8 | 272 |
| 18 | 63 | 21 | 264 | 273 | 9 | 336 |
| 19 | 78 | 26 | 327 | 338 | 11 | 416 |
| 20 | 96 | 32 | 405 | 416 | 11 | 512 |
| 21 | 117 | 39 | 501 | 507 | 6 | 624 |
| 22 | 144 | 48 | 618 | 624 | 6 | 768 |
| 23 | 177 | 59 | 762 | 767 | 5 | 944 |
| 24 | 219 | 73 | 939 | 949 | 10 | 1168 |
| 25 | 270 | 90 | 1158 | 1170 | 12 | 1440 |
| 26 | 330 | 110 | 1428 | 1430 | 2 | 1760 |
| 27 | 408 | 136 | 1758 | 1768 | 10 | 2176 |
| 28 | 501 | 167 | 2166 | 2171 | 5 | 2672 |
| 29 | 618 | 206 | 2667 | 2678 | 11 | 3296 |
| 30 | 759 | 253 | 3285 | 3289 | 4 | 4048 |
| 31 | 936 | 312 | 4044 | 4056 | 12 | 4992 |
| 32 | 1152 | 384 | 4980 | 4992 | 12 | 6144 |
| 33 | 1416 | 472 | 6132 | 6136 | 4 | 7552 |
Does that mean I have 99.7% chance to double? or 100.5% or %0.1 chance? I suck with decimals I guess lol. and your chart looks good but the one I made personally nets a profit of around 10 bucks on every roll except the later ones. They net a profit of about 70-110 dollars. if they seven out. I could send it to you if you want.
0.100564734 * 100 = 10.0564734%Quote: SluistroHey 7craps. I dont understand "success to double the starting bankroll = 0.9970745^784 = 0.100564734"
10%Quote: SluistroDoes that mean I have 99.7% chance to double? or 100.5% or %0.1 chance?
the 99.7% is to win one time before losing a bankroll
that times itself 784 times = the probability of success to double
784 comes from the bankroll divided by the average win (for my progression)
just post it using code tagsQuote: SluistroI could send it to you if you want.
paste here
I can copy and paste it right into Excel.
9 NBA games on at once
1 (on the any seven)
2 (on the any seven)
3 (hopping 7's from now on)
6
6
6
9
9
12
15
18
24
30
36
45
54
75
90
105
135
165
210
255
315
390
480
600
735
900
$5025 total needed.
I only count 29 bets at $4,731 totalQuote: Sluistro$5025 total needed.
avg win = 11.53037799
prob of one win = 0.994944736
number of wins needed, on average, to double bankroll
4731/11.53037799 = 411 (rounded up)
0.994944736^411*100 = 12.4558091%
about 1 in 8 attempts successful, on average
