Are we hedging here?

When we establish our point, be it pass or don't, and take or lay those odds, we then put up our come or don't come bets.

On the pass aren't we betting against ourselves in that if a 7 hits we lose our pass line bet but win our come bet?

Conversely, if we have a don't pass point up with lay odds and that number hits we lose that bet, but our don't come bet replaces that number and again lay the odds. But we win on a two or three craps. 12 is a push.

Are we betting against ourselves?

If we played on a table that allowed 100X odds and played only one number at full odds wouldn't the house advantage be slightly lower to our favor?

Do we not maximize our opportunity, to hit a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, and then our number at full odds?

This stuff gives me a headache!

.

It's not a hedge.

A hedge is a bet made SPECIFICALLY to reduce losses, not to increase gains.

Sure, it reduces the loss if the 7 is rolled, but it increases the gains if the point is rolled. An "off & on" with the come bet is a beautiful thing.

And it can increase gains if the 11 is rolled. Of course it can increase losses if the 2, 3 or 12 is rolled....

Put it all together, and it can hardly be called a hedge.

There's no question it works like a hedge when those situations occur, but the reason to make those bets is not to hedge.

The problem with a come bet, is the advantage is the 7, which would cause a loser for the passline, therefore its a little bit of a hedge while it's in the come box.
Personally I'll place (or buy) when I have a passline with odds.

one of these days I am going to find the post where the Wiz answers this. He confirms it is not hedging.

Quote: odiousgambit

one of these days I am going to find the post where the Wiz answers this. He confirms it is not hedging.

From here

Quote: Wizard

I would have to run a simulation to prove this, but it seems to me that come bets are positively correlated to a pass line bet already on a point. Yes, on the first roll of the come bet they are negatively correlated, but if you get past that, then it becomes positively correlated. I think if player A made 1000 bets on the pass line, and player B made 1000 total bets on the pass and come, betting the come every opportunity, that player B would have the greater standard deviation. To conclude, I think come bets are an anti-hedge.

I look at it as two separate games. Pretend the Come bet belongs to the person next to you because essentially that is what is happening. You make two bets, you are playing two games; three bets, three games and so on.

I think one bet on random rollers is the way to go. Low bet on Come or Pass (after the 5-Count) full odds (or what you can afford) and let that be the game. You'll save a lot of money playing this way then going up on two, three or more numbers. With each bet you increase the house's expectation over you --- there is no such thing as a hedge here; only more losses.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

A hedge is a bet made SPECIFICALLY to reduce losses, not to increase gains.

Under that definition, would laying the point for $25, $31 or $45 and betting $10 Don't Come be a hedge or not?
If not, would taking down the lay bet after the DC had moved behind the line make the lay bet a hedge in your terminology?

Quote: BenJammin

When we establish our point, be it pass or don't, and take or lay those odds, we then put up our come or don't come bets.

On the pass aren't we betting against ourselves in that if a 7 hits we lose our pass line bet but win our come bet?

Conversely, if we have a don't pass point up with lay odds and that number hits we lose that bet, but our don't come bet replaces that number and again lay the odds. But we win on a two or three craps. 12 is a push.

Are we betting against ourselves?

If we played on a table that allowed 100X odds and played only one number at full odds wouldn't the house advantage be slightly lower to our favor?

Do we not maximize our opportunity, to hit a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, and then our number at full odds?

This stuff gives me a headache!

.

I think a good definition of a TRUE hedge, are two bets that will resolve at the same time, on the opposite side. If two bets can theoretically both win, even though they seem to be on the opposite side, then that isn't a hedge.

For example, if I have a Lay 10, but also a pass line bet with odds on a point established on a 6 - these may seem opposite (because a 7 looses my passline/odds, but wins my Lay), but it is also possible that I could win both if a 6 rolls, then a 7.

So come bets and pass line bets can all resolve without a loss - so no hedge.

Quote: BenJammin

This stuff gives me a headache!.

Why make it so confusing. Simplify.

A hedge lowers variance.
if the composite bet does not then it is not a hedge.
Simple enough?

Oh, oh, now what is variance?
I leave that to the experts like the Wizard and Frank S to name a few
(I really did not name any one)

For the same amount of $$$ at risk, it is variance (the higher)
that allows the highest probability of showing a profit over X number of bets.
Of course, just increasing your winning bet percentage can easily do the same without any math.
Just predict the very next roll better than the average craps geek and bet it.

Alan Shank in a few posts shows what a hedge is by the variance

Does the Wizard? I would have to look, I am not 100% certain he does.

How about math genius S.N. Ethier in his Doctrine of Chances book

page 37
"Example 1.4.19.
Hedging bets.
We say that one hedges a bet if, by making
one or more additional bets, the variance of the composite bet is less than
the variance of the original bet. Let us consider an example of this."

sounds good to me

"Let X denote the player’s profit per unit bet from a pass-line bet,
and let Y denote his profit per unit bet from an any-craps bet.
The former was discussed in Examples 1.2.2 on p. 17 and 1.2.8 on p. 19, and the latter is
a one-roll bet that a 2, 3, or 12 will appear.
A win pays 7 to 1.
The joint distribution of X and Y is given by (1.132)"

math left out so not to hurt one's feelings (read the book)

"Typically, one chooses b to be 1/7 in this hedge, so that a win from the any
craps bet cancels the loss from the pass-line bet.
We hasten to add that, as a general rule, one should not hedge one’s bets in a subfair game."

That leaves open the door to the non-general rule

IF you have more fun hedging bets, does not matter if you are or not,
go with it.
Fun wins out in the end and then we die and move on to the next state.

Quote: miplet

From here

Thank you!

Surely an hedge bet is one made by keeping an eye on the changing odds and betting both sides in a two sided competition that guarantees a profit (albeit small relative to the amount bet) whatever the outcome.
Thus not applicable to games where you have no input or control or the odds are fixed.

Quote: Jeepster

Surely an hedge bet is one made by keeping an eye on the changing odds and betting both sides in a two sided competition that guarantees a profit

I think this is called Arbitrage, not Hedging.

A hedge is doing something stupid, like I used to do, until I asked on this forum, trying to 'protect' a bet. I would lay the 4 for $40 and the 10 for $40. Then I would do a $5 hard-4 and a $5 hard-10 to hedge the opposite side. If the 7 comes up, I win the lay bets, but lost the HW. If a hard 4 or 10 shows up, I lose the lay, but win the HW to pay for the bet just lost. Dumb bet, and only covering 1/3 of the losing numbers on the 4/10.
Jeffrey