Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 21st, 2013 at 7:25:21 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Maybe??
Come on and do not scare away the average Craps player with small bankrolls.
Now $300 would be too much for many Craps players to buy-in for.

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll . . . = 300.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 180 (90 rolls per hour)
No. Sessions simulated = 1,000,000
Avg. No. games played . = 54.04
Avg. No. games won . . = 26.64
Avg. No. games lost . . = 27.41
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 182.44

Bankroll was busted . . = 0.298% of the time ( 2979) <<<<<<<< Not a "maybe" bust rate
Bankroll decreased . . = 51.667% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 47.954% of the time

But for $200 with $5 and 2X odds. More players can have $200 in the rail to start.
(40 betting units. Same exact as betting $100 flat 2x odds with a $4k buy-in)
How about Risk of Ruin around 1 in 20 sessions on average

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll . . . = 200.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 180
No. Sessions simulated = 1,000,000
Avg. No. games played . = 53.36
Avg. No. games won . . = 26.30
Avg. No. games lost . . = 27.06
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 180.10

Bankroll was busted . . = 5.327% of the time ( 53275)
Bankroll decreased . . = 51.682% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 47.942% of the time

$200 and $300 for a $5 player may still be too much bankroll
But for $100 with $5 and 2X odds. More players can have $100 in the rail to start.
(20 betting units. Same exact as betting $100 flat 2x odds with a $2k buy-in)
How about Risk of Ruin around 1 in 3 sessions on average

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll . . . = 100.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 180
No. Sessions simulated = 1,000,000
Avg. No. games played . = 45.26
Avg. No. games won . . = 22.31
Avg. No. games lost . . = 22.95
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 152.78

Bankroll was busted . . = 34.798% of the time ( 347985)
Bankroll decreased . . = 54.735% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 44.947% of the time

Don't sound right.
"very difficult"
Looks to be close to 1 in 5 busting out
Your "very difficult" is not even close to my "very difficult"

This can be calculated using DS Blackjack Attack trip RoR formula but the math is too challenging for many.
Sim results are more impressive says the Wizard and I agree.

($200 making $5 pass line bets only is the same as
a player buying in for $4k making $100 pass line bets only. 40 betting units)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 0
Session Bankroll . . . = 200.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 2160 (24 hours @ 90 rolls per)
No. Sessions simulated = 1,000,000

Avg. No. games played . = 600.99
Avg. No. games won . . = 296.25
Avg. No. games lost . . = 304.74
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 2028.85

Bankroll was busted . . = 19.068% of the time ( 190683)
Bankroll decreased . . = 63.355% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 35.179% of the time

Good Luck
see ya at the craps table




And last months "ZCore13 Poster of the Month" checks in. With you and Jimbo posting Ahigh is going to look like a child with his off the wall ideas and factless comments.

You guys are awesome!!

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
7craps
7craps
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May 21st, 2013 at 7:29:59 PM permalink
Quote: n708s8th

But to bet the pass line and 2x odds doesn’t the player need to come to the table
with a bank roll of $1,000.00 to $2,000.00 for the session to survive the volatility for 6-8 hours

No.
Too much bankroll.

I and goatcabin and guido111 to name a few have some posts (I do not have the links right now)
showing how to calculate the EV and Standard Deviation for a number of wagers with odds
and use that info to calculate your session Risk of Ruin.
You can do some searching if interested.
It is quite basic once you see how it is done.

I dug up some sim results 4u.
Session Bankroll units. = what ever $ you want.
You like playing with $5 flat bets, many do, so just do a bit of multiplying.
(20 units * $5 = $100 session bankroll)

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 20.00
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 116.94
Avg. No. games won . . = 57.64
Avg. No. games lost . . = 59.29
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 394.76
Bankroll was busted . . = 66.098% of the time ( 660980)
Bankroll decreased . . = 69.892% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 30.044% of the time

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 40.00
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 176.20
Avg. No. games won . . = 86.85
Avg. No. games lost . . = 89.34
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 594.83
Bankroll was busted . . = 36.529% of the time ( 365289)
Bankroll decreased . . = 55.893% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 43.948% of the time

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 60.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 720
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 201.58
Avg. No. games won . . = 99.37
Avg. No. games lost . . = 102.21
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 680.54
Bankroll was busted . . = 16.613% of the time ( 166126)
Bankroll decreased . . = 53.219% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 46.593% of the time

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 80.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 720
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 210.64
Avg. No. games won . . = 103.83
Avg. No. games lost . . = 106.81
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 711.12
Bankroll was busted . . = 6.127% of the time ( 61271)
Bankroll decreased . . = 53.030% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 46.779% of the time

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 100.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 720
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 213.26
Avg. No. games won . . = 105.12
Avg. No. games lost . . = 108.14
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 719.94
Bankroll was busted . . = 1.827% of the time ( 18271)
Bankroll decreased . . = 53.000% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 46.811% of the time

Simulation of Craps Pass Line Wagers
Odds Multiplier . . . . = 2
Session Bankroll units. = 200.00
Max. No. rolls to quit = 720
No. Sessions simulated = 1000000
Avg. No. games played . = 214.02
Avg. No. games won . . = 105.50
Avg. No. games lost . . = 108.53
Avg. No. dice rolls . . = 722.52
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time ( 0)
Bankroll decreased . . = 53.061% of the time
Bankroll increased . . = 46.751% of the time

Good Luck
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ahigh
Ahigh
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May 21st, 2013 at 7:34:50 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

And last months "ZCore13 Poster of the Month" checks in. With you and Jimbo posting Ahigh is going to look like a child with his off the wall ideas and factless comments.

You guys are awesome!!

ZCore13



Look like a child huh? Real classy comment you made there. You showing up for the meeting big man?
aahigh.com
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 21st, 2013 at 7:50:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Look like a child huh? Real classy comment you made there. You showing up for the meeting big man?



Awww how cute. Are you asking me on a date?


7Craps, did you write your own software or are you using something readily available? Your results/replies to statistical questions are always impressive.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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May 21st, 2013 at 7:52:54 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Awww how cute. Are you asking me on a date?



You know what's cute? When you meet me in person, the rules of the Wizard of Vegas are going to be hard to enforce. And I'm totally unclear how your comment could be taken as anything less than calling me a faggot.

Did people have a habit of calling you names as a child? It just seems like name-calling is just a natural thing for you to do. Let me explain this to you: I do not like you to even dancing around the desire to call me names. You want to talk about something I wrote, talk about something I wrote. Calling me a child or calling me a faggot crosses the line.

I want Zcore's habit of doing everything short of calling me a name to be addressed. I don't want to play the game he's playing, but if I were going to, I would go in and dig up every last ounce of shit I could dig up on this guy and talk about whatever might haunt him from his past and names that he might have been called as a child.

This is completely unacceptable to me to be constantly under fire from this guy.
aahigh.com
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 21st, 2013 at 8:04:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You know what's cute? When you meet me in person, the rules of the Wizard of Vegas are going to be hard to enforce. And I'm totally unclear how your comment could be taken as anything less than calling me a faggot.



Wow. First of all, I would never use that kind of language to or about anyone. Second, I think the more proper term would be gay. And third, is there something wrong with being gay? You say it like it's some sort of criminal offense or disease.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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May 21st, 2013 at 8:07:57 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Wow. First of all, I would never use that kind of language to or about anyone. Second, I think the more proper term would be gay. And third, is there something wrong with being gay? You say it like it's some sort of criminal offense or disease.



Understand this: the term that I used is what I inferred from the message you posted. You are the one insulting homosexuals with YOUR comment. Don't pretend otherwise.

Even the child comment insulted my masculinity. The homosexual comment took it to the next level.

You should not be so ignorant to think anybody failed to notice this.

Earlier in this thread you implied that I was not intelligent and that my answers were not based on facts. Both of which are implications you failed to provide evidence for, and in fact were baseless implications (not even claims -- IE the dancing).

Quote: Zcore13

I have to appologize for Ahigh. Someone that is able to answer you with an inteligent and fact based answer should be around shortly. While Ahigh's posts are entertaining, they generally go on forever and never say anything.



A quote from another thread where you are addressing me recently:

Quote: Zcore13

As the kids say these day, you need to check yourself before you wreck yourself. And I'm being very serious.



Really? As the kids say these days is how Zcore quotes, then follows up by calling me a "child." Yes.

Quote: Zcore13

The whole biased dice, dice control, dice influence, bouncy table, dealer's not focusing on you is just ridiculous.



Here you stop just shy of calling me ridiculous. Another dance, I'm sure you would really just like to talk about me, but it almost seems like you're talking about my writing. It's just hard to tell here if you're saying that I am ridiculous or just everything that I say is ridiculous. Either way, seems pretty personal to me, ZCORE.

Quote: Zcore13

OH MY GOD... What would he have done if you chose to not reply because he was rude to you? Nobody else could have answered. Thank you for your presence Oh Masterful One.



Here you facetiously refer to me as "Oh Masterful One."

As I look back through your posts over the last couple of days, a large percentage of your posts are posts where you make a point to slight me in one way or another. There is a clear and obvious trend of your doing this. If this is being done within the rules of the board, please let me know moderators, because I am going to participate in the same type of behavior back and forth with Zcore. I hope this is not acceptable and I hope that Zcore is dealt with accordingly to his misbehavior targeting me recently.

I do not like the way I have been a target of him. I don't appreciate it. I want it to stop. But if it isn't going to stop, I will find out anything and everything to do what I can to get back at him in public just the same way that he is doing what he is doing to me. Then we can all play on a level playing field.

This has just gone on too long and I'm not going to sit back and let him keep doing this. It's too much.
aahigh.com
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 21st, 2013 at 8:27:41 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Understand this: the term that I used is what I inferred from the message you posted. You are the one insulting homosexuals with YOUR comment. Don't pretend otherwise.

Even the child comment insulted my masculinity. The homosexual comment took it to the next level.

You should not be so ignorant to think anybody failed to notice this.

Earlier in this thread you implied that I was not intelligent and that my answers were not based on facts. Both of which are implications you failed to provide evidence for, and in fact were baseless implications (not even claims -- IE the dancing).



A quote from another thread where you are addressing me recently:



Really? As the kids say these days is how Zcore quotes, then follows up by calling me a "child." Yes.



Here you stop just shy of calling me ridiculous. Another dance, I'm sure you would really just like to talk about me, but it almost seems like you're talking about my writing. It's just hard to tell here if you're saying that I am ridiculous or just everything that I say is ridiculous. Either way, seems pretty personal to me, ZCORE.



As usual it is hard to understand the point you are making.

I was not implying that you were any derogatory, hateful word.

Yes, Jimbo and 7Craps use statistics to back up their points and most of your theories don't hold up to their work.

The rest of the "check yourself before your wreck yourself" quote was my concern that you put way too much time in at the tables, on your research and on this forum. It is my opinion this will end up affecting your personal life. I don't wish that upon anyone and I see it way too often in my line of work. It starts innocently enough and turns into a total meltdown.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
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May 21st, 2013 at 8:29:31 PM permalink
Listen, Zcore. I don't think any of this is a joke. I don't like the way you are jabbing at me. If you don't understand what I'm saying, make it simple and stop mentioning me or commenting to or about me. It will then all be fine.
aahigh.com
AlanMendelson
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:24:17 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin


BTW, did you ever figure out how odds behind DP/DC bets do NOT have a player advantage, even though they have a better-than-50% chance to win?
Cheers,
Alan Shank



Long ago.

Alan the most valuable lesson I ever learned from you was this:

While there is no house advantage on the odds bet, there is also no player advantage, and for right-way players the house is more likely to win that "no advantage bet."

Cheers, good buddy.
MrV
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:38:11 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You know what's cute? When you meet me in person, the rules of the Wizard of Vegas are going to be hard to enforce.



Oh, pshaw.

WTF will be different when and if he meets you in person?

What you gonna do?

What you gonna say?

You pulled this same kindergarten macho schoolboy crap on me, basically daring me to meet you in the real world.

As fate would have it, I'll be at Sugar Factory this Saturday, and probably at the craps tables at MSS and CR to boot; I understand that you, too will be there for WoVCon.

Not to worry, though.

I'm absolutely confident that there will be Nothing to see here

See ya ...
"What, me worry?"
7craps
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:46:40 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

While there is no house advantage on the odds bet, there is also no player advantage
and for right-way players the house is more likely to win that "no advantage bet."

Excellent.
Just like making ANY place bet too.

Those bets (all place bets) all have a house edge
and for right-way players the house is more likely to win that "house edge bet."

Both the odds bets and the place bets have the exact same winning/losing percentages.
Who knew.
The difference?
The odds bets pay more.

Take (make) a $600 place 6.
Winning probability exactly 5/11 (5 ways to win and always 6 ways to lose)
Pays $700 on a win. Yahoo!!

Take (make) a $600 odds bet on the point 6.
Winning probability exactly 5/11
Pays $720 on a win. Yahoo!!

I want more winning odds bets if I have a choice,
like 1,000 more for a $20,000 more profit from winning 1,000 odds 6 bets over my 1000 winning place6 bets.

It is all about winning more.
more more more

Take (make) a $500 place 5.
Winning probability exactly 4/10 (4 ways to win and always 6 ways to lose)
Pays $700 on a win. Yahoo!!

Take (make) a $500 odds bet on the point 5.
Winning probability exactly 4/10
Pays $750 on a win. Yahoo!!
I want 1000 more wins on the odds bet for the 5 than my place5 wins.
That is $50,000 more real $$$s.

Not leaving out the 4 or 10. We will Buy them instead of placing. But most place the 4 or 10. More $$$ for the casinos!

Take (make) a $500 Buy10. Vig on a win only. Cool!!!
Winning probability exactly 3/9 (3 ways to win and always 6 ways to lose)
Pays $1000 on a win. Yahoo!! Ah, forgot to pay the vig of $25!
No problem!!!

Take (make) a $500 odds bet on the point 10.
Winning probability exactly 3/9
Pays $1000 on a win. Yahoo!!
What! NO vig wanted. This casino IS so cool!!!

I want 1000 more wins on the odds bet for the 10 than my Buy10 wins.
That is $25,000 more real $$$s.


see you at the craps table
(maybe not. I am at CP during the week always)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ahigh
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:51:45 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

WTF will be different when and if he meets you in person?



I guess he could be blatant about calling me faggot without worrying about being banned.
aahigh.com
Wizard
Administrator
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Awww how cute. Are you asking me on a date?



Seven-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
sodawater
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May 21st, 2013 at 9:58:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

You know what's cute? When you meet me in person, the rules of the Wizard of Vegas are going to be hard to enforce. And I'm totally unclear how your comment could be taken as anything less than calling me a faggot.



If anything merits a ban, this thinly veiled physical thread should.
AlanMendelson
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May 21st, 2013 at 11:13:31 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Excellent.
Just like making ANY place bet too.

Those bets (all place bets) all have a house edge
and for right-way players the house is more likely to win that "house edge bet."

Both the odds bets and the place bets have the exact same winning/losing percentages.
Who knew.
The difference?
The odds bets pay more.



Of course the odds bets pay more than the place bets. But the house is still more likely to win. This is why craps is a negative expectation game. Odds bettors do not have a license to print money.
AlanMendelson
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May 21st, 2013 at 11:15:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

When you meet me in person, the rules of the Wizard of Vegas are going to be hard to enforce.


Quote: sodawater

If anything merits a ban, this thinly veiled physical thread should.



No ban for the threat? On second thought, I might not show up at the WOV Con.
odiousgambit
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May 22nd, 2013 at 12:18:54 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

IE: don't be a degenerate gambler, and it doesn't even matter that much. Bet beyond your normal limits with no odds (at a $25 table or a $100 table) and see how it goes for your own self. Then make up your own mind about what kind of value you get out of the odds compared to no odds and putting it all on the pass line.



The OP may in fact have been wondering if it is worth it to bet beyond his comfort level, in order to get free odds. The answer to that is "no"

Although there is a way to do so that makes sense. But that means making only a fraction of the number of bets you normally make. If your total action is actually the same or less then your gambling is actually more sensible. That's the only way I will do 10x odds. Oddly, speaking for myself anyway, the feeling a player gets doing that is that he is 'taking a wilder ride', when actually it is all more under control and smarter.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
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May 22nd, 2013 at 12:23:25 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Only pass line losers bet free odds bets. Winners only roll sevens and elevens on the comeout.



This is an interesting comment.

On the surface Ahigh is telling us that, in effect, betting the odds after the point is established, is something you do as a "consolation" because you really missed (lost) your first goal which was to throw a natural -- a seven or 11.

It's as if you had this thought process: Well, I couldnt roll a winner-7 or a winner-11 so now I will try for the next best thing -- Im going to try to roll a (select your point number) and bet odds money to increase my payout and bring down the house's odds that I will not make my point.

Indeed, an interesting comment.

However, there are players and conditions where you don't want a 7 or 11 on the come out. For example, when you are a ponit away from making a fire bet payoff, or you think you have the ability to hit those "numbers" and get better payoffs with the odds money in play. Suppose, for example, you have the ability to throw tens (Ahigh claims this to a certain extent) then you want to establish ten as your point so that you get that magnificent 2-1 payoff on the odds money.

In a practical sense. it takes a long time to make a lot of money if you are only hitting come-out point winners. The big money comes when you hit your points with max odds.

But... it's an interesting thought that Ahigh had here.
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 1:04:11 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

The fact is that, except in that very unusual situation where somebody allows a player to make odds bets behind his/her flat bet, you cannot make an odds bet without having a passline bet. So I don't think it is useful to make that first comparison.


You're missing the point though. They are two separate bets and will have two distinct W/L percentages.


Quote: goatcabin

If two players are playing side-by-side, one making only flat bets and the other taking odds, they will have exactly the same W-L record, but very, very rarely the same net $$ result.


I never disagreed with that. What I'm saying is...look at the two separate bets: (1) the flat bet, and (2) the odds bet. For example, take these rolls:

7, 4, 4
7, 11, 6, 5, 8, 6
7, 10, 7

On these rolls, the flat bet has 6 wins, 1 loss. The odds bet has 2 wins, 1 loss. Thus, different W/L percentages, which is all I'm saying.


Quote: goatcabin

In any case, the W-L percentage is only half the story, isn't it?


Totally agree here. In fact, I don't even know how this silly W/L percentage stuff got brought up.

Oh yeah...it was Ahigh. lol
Fighting BS one post at a time!
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 1:16:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I do not like the way I have been a target of him. I don't appreciate it. I want it to stop. But if it isn't going to stop, I will find out anything and everything to do what I can to get back at him in public just the same way that he is doing what he is doing to me. Then we can all play on a level playing field.

This has just gone on too long and I'm not going to sit back and let him keep doing this. It's too much.


"Let's get ready to rummmmble!!"

Man, I just may have to drop by this weekend. Could be some fireworks. ;)
Fighting BS one post at a time!
AlanMendelson
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May 22nd, 2013 at 2:25:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I do not like the way I have been a target of him. I don't appreciate it. I want it to stop. But if it isn't going to stop, I will find out anything and everything to do what I can to get back at him in public just the same way that he is doing what he is doing to me. Then we can all play on a level playing field.

This has just gone on too long and I'm not going to sit back and let him keep doing this. It's too much.



I think this is too much, and this should not be taken lightly and I am not.
1BB
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May 22nd, 2013 at 4:05:03 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Wow. First of all, I would never use that kind of language to or about anyone. Second, I think the more proper term would be gay. And third, is there something wrong with being gay? You say it like it's some sort of criminal offense or disease.

ZCore13



Wow is right! I'm very surprised, disappointed and confused by your suspension as well as the length of it. Your immediate and excellent explanation of the "offense" in question leaves me no doubt that there was no malicious intent on your part.

Your membership goes back to the very beginning of this forum and I have always found you to be a quality poster.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
boymimbo
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May 22nd, 2013 at 5:35:38 AM permalink
Lots of different advice here.

The best bets on the table are Don't pass with the most odds followed closely by Pass with the most odds.

In a gambling session, if your betting "limit" is $25/bet and you manage to find a $5 crap table, your expected loss by putting $25 on the pass line is $.3535 per resolved bet. If you put $5 on the pass and $20 in odds (4x odds), your expected loss is only $.0707 per resolved bet.

Since a bet resolves itself on average once every 3.38 rolls and the dice flow about 100 times an hour, you're looking at about 118 points over a four hour session for an expected loss of $41.89 for $25 pass vs $8.38 for $5 pass with 4x odds. You save, on average, $33.51 per session by betting this way.

It depends on your bankroll, but if you are willing to put $25 on the crap table every time, it's far far better to put it on the line with odds vs the line alone, ON AVERAGE.

Now of course you have to be lucky to win the Pass line bet once the point is established. But you get rewarded by getting the odds payment which pays you exactly what you should get should the point win.

Good luck.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
boymimbo
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May 22nd, 2013 at 6:42:21 AM permalink
I've commented about ZCore's suspension in the appropriate forum.

Frankly, folks, the OP made a comment and the forum members welcomed the new member via mainly bickering between the usual suspects.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Mission146
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May 22nd, 2013 at 6:52:42 AM permalink
Correct, and if anyone has anything relevant to add about the OP's question, this would be a good time.

I've said my piece, IMO, the Odds Bet has no bearing on the House Edge on a Line/Come Bet because whatever amount bet on the Line/Come Bet is subject to that House Edge and any amount bet on Odds is subject to a House Edge of 0.00.

Again, IMO, I view them as two separate bets related only by the fact that one must be made for the other to be made.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
petroglyph
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May 22nd, 2013 at 9:26:49 AM permalink
Dovetailing this comment with the op and subsequent posts by same and replies by 7craps and others.

Thinking along the lines of value at risk or bang for a wagered buck. It's been said the odds bet behind the line is the best bet on the table after the point is established.

It's been explained to me that the dp/dc wager "mirrors" the p/c bets. So if the odds behind the passline is the best bet wouldn't the odds layed on the dp/dc be the worst bets? I realize the player's chances improve on the dp once a point is established but it's tough for me to want to lay odds for the house.

If a person with say a smaller bankroll didn't want to risk ruin and wanted to have any multiple of say 30 dollars worth of action, would a better wager be betting the don't for 15, then dc for 10 then 5? Rather than a 5dp with 25 odds?

Similarly, I've read comments about the buy on the 4/10 saying it's only worth it if the vig is paid on the win. Considering the value here, if the player places a 4or 10 for twenty five and it hit's they receive 45. But even paying the vig up front of a dollar when it hits they receive 50, so the value of that one dollar vig bet pays 4 to 1. So a player has a 1 in 3 chance of receiving a 4 to 1 pay, doesn't that make the vig one of the best bets?
goatcabin
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May 22nd, 2013 at 10:34:15 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Of course the odds bets pay more than the place bets. But the house is still more likely to win. This is why craps is a negative expectation game.



You still don't get it, do you? The fact that the house is more likely to win a place bet or a rightside odds bet is NOT why craps is a negative expectation game. The probability of winning a bet is only one factor. Look here:

Suppose the house paid 8-to-6 on a place 6 bet. The probability of winning the bet would still be just .4545, i.e. the house would still be more likely to win the bet. However:

5 * 8 = 40 (five ways to win)
6 * -6 = -36 (six ways to lose)
--------------
+ 4

The player would be expected to win, on average, 4 units for every 11 decisions, despite the expectation of losing more bets than he/she wins.
Still, I hope you're well.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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May 22nd, 2013 at 10:48:50 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

You're missing the point though. They are two separate bets and will have two distinct W/L percentages.



I never disagreed with that. What I'm saying is...look at the two separate bets: (1) the flat bet, and (2) the odds bet. For example, take these rolls:

7, 4, 4
7, 11, 6, 5, 8, 6
7, 10, 7

On these rolls, the flat bet has 6 wins, 1 loss. The odds bet has 2 wins, 1 loss. Thus, different W/L percentages, which is all I'm saying.



The player making the odds bet also has six wins, 1 loss, since he/she is also making a flat bet. The player making ONLY the flat bet has a 2-1 record on points, just like the player making odds bets. In a case like this, the player making odds bets wins more than the player not making them.

I agree, however, that looking at them as separate bets makes some aspects of craps more clear, i.e. that taking/laying odds has NO EFFECT on the expected value, only on the volatility.

Same bet arguments:
1. To make an odds bets, one must have a flat bet.
2. They resolve identically; both win or lose under the same conditions.
Separate bet argument:
1. The payoffs are different, resulting in separate expected values.
2. You can increase, decrease or remove odds bets in between rolls, but you can't reduce or remove pass/come bets after the point is established.

So, they're both a candy mint and a breath mint! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Jimbo
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May 22nd, 2013 at 11:09:10 AM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

So, they're both a candy mint and a breath mint! >:-)

Funny!
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 1:28:33 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

The player making the odds bet also has six wins, 1 loss, since he/she is also making a flat bet. The player making ONLY the flat bet has a 2-1 record on points, just like the player making odds bets. In a case like this, the player making odds bets wins more than the player not making them.


Not to beat a dead horse here, but I honestly don't see why this is so hard to understand. The section in bold is incorrect because in my example there were only 3 odds bets taken (i.e. taking odds on the 4, 6, and 10). Since the odds bet does not win (or lose) on the come-out, why would you count a winner on the come-out as an odds-bet win? That makes no sense.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
goatcabin
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:00:49 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: goatcabin

The player making the odds bet also has six wins, 1 loss, since he/she is also making a flat bet. The player making ONLY the flat bet has a 2-1 record on points, just like the player making odds bets. In a case like this, the player making odds bets wins more than the player not making them.


Not to beat a dead horse here, but I honestly don't see why this is so hard to understand. The section in bold is incorrect because in my example there were only 3 odds bets taken (i.e. taking odds on the 4, 6, and 10). Since the odds bet does not win (or lose) on the come-out, why would you count a winner on the come-out as an odds-bet win? That makes no sense.



You "bolded" the wrong part, Beethoven. THE PLAYER MAKING THE ODDS BET, as I wrote, has exactly the same record as the player not making them. Why is this so hard to understand? >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Beethoven9th
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May 22nd, 2013 at 3:13:06 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

You "bolded" the wrong part, Beethoven. THE PLAYER MAKING THE ODDS BET, as I wrote, has exactly the same record as the player not making them. Why is this so hard to understand? >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank


Um...no he doesn't. Let's take a look:

Player #1: 6 wins, 1 loss on the flat bet
Player #2: 6 wins, 1 loss on the flat bet; 2 wins, 1 loss on the odds bet



How does "2 wins, 1 loss" = "6 wins, 1 loss"?

(Remember, all I'm saying is that the odds bet has a different W/L percentage than the flat bet, and I believe the above example shows such)
Fighting BS one post at a time!
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