Probability versus Observation
May 18th, 2013 at 8:52:26 AM
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Practically everyone knows the odds, but would people say they have seen the following more often than the odds indicate? I would say I have:
1. Shooter on a good roll. One or both dice fly off the table. Regardless of "Same dice!" being called, next roll is a 7-out. Odds are 16.67%
2. Come-out roll is 7 or 11. Next roll is craps. Next roll is 7 or 11. Odds are 0.55% for this sequence. Usually both the first and third rolls are 7s.
3. Point established. Roll is 2, 3, 11 or 12. Next roll is 2, 3, 11 or 12. Odds are 2.78% for this sequence. On top of this, it seems more often than not, the next roll is the same number as the first!
1. Shooter on a good roll. One or both dice fly off the table. Regardless of "Same dice!" being called, next roll is a 7-out. Odds are 16.67%
2. Come-out roll is 7 or 11. Next roll is craps. Next roll is 7 or 11. Odds are 0.55% for this sequence. Usually both the first and third rolls are 7s.
3. Point established. Roll is 2, 3, 11 or 12. Next roll is 2, 3, 11 or 12. Odds are 2.78% for this sequence. On top of this, it seems more often than not, the next roll is the same number as the first!
May 18th, 2013 at 9:38:59 AM
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I won't say that I've seen those happen more often than the odds would indicate but I will say that I've noticed and remembered those things happening more than when they do not.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
May 18th, 2013 at 9:50:31 AM
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I'm to the point where I've changed my betting style.
1. Take down everything I can and make a Come bet (can't bring myself to bet the Don't yet).
2. Not sure if there's an exploit. Doubling the Pass Line bet before the third roll is not really bright.
3. After the first roll I was betting a $1 C&E, but I think I'm going to change that to just putting down a $5 Field bet (which I have never, ever bet before).
1. Take down everything I can and make a Come bet (can't bring myself to bet the Don't yet).
2. Not sure if there's an exploit. Doubling the Pass Line bet before the third roll is not really bright.
3. After the first roll I was betting a $1 C&E, but I think I'm going to change that to just putting down a $5 Field bet (which I have never, ever bet before).
May 18th, 2013 at 11:46:42 AM
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I think perhaps you just remember them more than other events, because they are "unexpected."
I used to get all superstitious about stuff like the dice going off the table as well. If you really feel terribly about it, take down your odds and whatever other bets you can for 1 bet, but I imagine once you start doing that, you'll start to "remember" all the times you turned off your odds bets and would have collected.
I used to get all superstitious about stuff like the dice going off the table as well. If you really feel terribly about it, take down your odds and whatever other bets you can for 1 bet, but I imagine once you start doing that, you'll start to "remember" all the times you turned off your odds bets and would have collected.
May 18th, 2013 at 11:53:42 AM
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yep, shows that anecdotal observation is worthless.
For me, Craps immediately after 7-winner or 11-winner has been it.
For me, Craps immediately after 7-winner or 11-winner has been it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 18th, 2013 at 12:39:34 PM
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"Selective memory"--the basis for many superstitions at the craps tables.
It's why I try to park my car in the same spot each trip to the tables!
It's why I try to park my car in the same spot each trip to the tables!
May 18th, 2013 at 12:55:17 PM
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You need to look up confirmation bias.
May 18th, 2013 at 1:01:42 PM
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Absolutely.Quote: sodawaterconfirmation bias
Isn't that the title of a book on how to win at craps?!
May 19th, 2013 at 12:12:41 PM
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Confirmation - shmonfirmation.
I know! Let's everyone track these occurrences and see if they perform to the expected odds.
Way easier than tracking face values of the dice over countless rolls. Report back to this thread and I volunteer to tabulate the results. I might even consider paying everyone a dollar per report.
I know! Let's everyone track these occurrences and see if they perform to the expected odds.
Way easier than tracking face values of the dice over countless rolls. Report back to this thread and I volunteer to tabulate the results. I might even consider paying everyone a dollar per report.
May 19th, 2013 at 1:00:34 PM
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This thread is yet another example of why the craps forum is a detriment to this site.
May 19th, 2013 at 1:44:28 PM
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I can almost understand what you mean. In BJ anyways, Whenever I get a twelve and DON'T bust I am awwwed! BTW it is not selective memory. On CVBJ, for example, I have kept track of myself getting a ten whenever I have a 12 and it's on the order of 2/3 of the time! And I know this it's the same in live play. If I don't bust I'm happy but if I get a nine I'm in heaven! But the only thing I can say is trust the math because it's all going to work out.
The Terror of Casinos.
May 19th, 2013 at 8:49:46 PM
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Quote: sodawaterThis thread is yet another example of why the craps forum is a detriment to this site.
Why not stay of the craps forum, sodawater? Things were much better before your lame and ineffective non-contributing comments were added to the mix.
aahigh.com
May 19th, 2013 at 11:24:31 PM
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It's ironic. I thought the Pai Gau forum was the detrimental one all this time...
May 20th, 2013 at 5:52:01 AM
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I don't think any particular thread is particularly detrimental to this forum. For a long period of time, there were a series of threads on roulette bias. When we look at the most frequent posts, they have little to do with actual gambling. Decision2012, GunshowLoopHole, and HotBlonde weight loss are all within the top five and have nothing to do with Las Vegas or gambling.
The craps bias discussions will go away eventually. We have one particular flamboyant user who has brought up a number of threads. He will eventually grow tired of doing this and we will go about discussing other items of interest (or lack thereof).
The craps bias discussions will go away eventually. We have one particular flamboyant user who has brought up a number of threads. He will eventually grow tired of doing this and we will go about discussing other items of interest (or lack thereof).
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