7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
January 19th, 2013 at 10:38:58 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

What is the probability of a player losing $30,000 in 15 hours betting $25 Pass Line with $125 Odds with Continuous $25 Come Bets with $125 Odds?

The sim data I have is for 1,500 dice rolls
5X odds and increase the 5 & 9 odds to be $130
odds always working
(I could run another with odds never working on the come out roll. The bust rate would be less)
ev: -$550
sd: 8150

with 1500 such bets, the curve is very close to being normal
I get about 1 in 3,310

Only 53% of the players ended up with a losing session
In my 1 million player sim, 317 busted the 30K level or about 1 in 3155

Now, All bets were the same.

I really doubt a player playing this way at a real craps table would never increase his bets.
They always do at some point. And way more times than they remember.
That would easily increase the chance of busting $30k
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
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