WongBo
WongBo
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February 14th, 2012 at 10:12:28 PM permalink
I've tried the wizard's calculator and the blackjackInfo.com calculator
but I can't enter all criteria to get the true edge.
Can anyone verify the math on this?

The game:
8 deck shoe
S17
3:2 BJ
Early surrender
Double any two cards
Split to 3 hands
Split A once
DAS
Dealer peek
75% penetration

I have to give up on some points like no re-splitting aces (-0.1%)
and not splitting to four hands (-0.01%) but
Early surrender (+0.63%) pushes this game close to if not into positive EV.
As close as I can calculate this game has a HE of -0.05% !
I just found this at a somewhat obscure location,
And let's just say I can't wait to play it some more!
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 15th, 2012 at 12:45:56 AM permalink
to have both "dealer peek" and "early surrender" doesnt sound right to me.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
bbvk05
bbvk05
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February 15th, 2012 at 1:20:23 AM permalink
It looks like about a realistic results of -.10% when you include the cut card effect. Early surrender is a very rare rule these days. You are sure you can surrender before a dealer checks for an ace or ten underneath?

To the second poster: dealer peek just prevents you from doubling down against a dealer natural blackjack. When you play European style (no peek) you can never double down due vs an ace or 10, due to the risk. Obviously that is a house advantage.
WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 7:14:43 AM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

?..Early surrender is a very rare rule these days. You are sure you can surrender before a dealer checks for an ace or ten....



Excerpt from XXXX casino gaming guide:

"....Prior to the dealer checking the hole card, simply announce in a tone calculated to be heard by all, your intent to surrender.
Please do not handle the wager yourself, the dealer will perform the transaction prior to checking the hole card
and return half your original wager. Do not handle the wager yourself."

Just the fact that they mention a verbal signal when hand signaling is the universally preferred method indicates
A disconnect at this establishment. They might not know any better!
Now I am sure there are certain ethicists on this board who will feel
I should mention this to a pit boss or the director of table games,
but I think I prefer to just play the game as it's offered.
Maybe it's promotional.
Maybe they use the BJ as a loss leader to attract people to their remote location so they can clip them on the other games.
God knows their three card poker paytables suck.
They don't offer the fortune side wager at PGP and you can't prepay commission,
Their craps tables only pays double on 2 and 12 in the field,
You cant touch the cards at their midi-baccarat, $25 minimum,
They only offer $10 minimum roulette, double zero, no "en prison". Etc. Etc.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
P90
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February 15th, 2012 at 7:22:12 AM permalink
Players surrendering in blackjack is so rare - they must have one of the 4 surrender situations (out of 200 possible), and know basic strategy, and be willing to make the move - that it serves everyone to have it indicated verbally. Otherwise the sign can be confused with hitting, and very reasonably so, because all surrender hands are hitting hands otherwise.
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DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 15th, 2012 at 7:28:30 AM permalink
Quote: P90

Otherwise the sign can be confused with hitting, and very reasonably so, because all surrender hands are hitting hands otherwise.

I would think it is more easily confused with standing.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 8:29:25 AM permalink
Quote: P90

Players surrendering in blackjack is so rare - they must have one of the 4 surrender situations (out of 200 possible), and know basic strategy, and be willing to make the move - that it serves everyone to have it indicated verbally. Otherwise the sign can be confused with hitting, and very reasonably so, because all surrender hands are hitting hands otherwise.



When playing a game with early surrender there are actually nineteen surrender situations, not four.
Yes it is advisable to verbalize surrender but you will usually be shown the hand signal
and asked to use it as well as verbalizing to avoid controversy.
You are correct that most surrenders hit otherwise, with the exception of hard 17 vs. A, and hard 16 vs. 10, which are both RS.

early surrender strategy:
Hard 5,6,7,12,13,14,15,16,17 vs. A
Hard 14,15,16 vs. 10
Hard 16 vs. 9
Double 3's, 6's, 7's, 8's vs. A
Double 7's, 8's vs. 10
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
P90
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February 15th, 2012 at 8:53:47 AM permalink
I mean under the most common set of rules. Since it's that which makes surrender rare.
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WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 8:58:28 AM permalink
I highly recommend using surrender when it's available.
In my experience I have regretted it far fewer times that I have appreciated it.
Let's face it, the dealer usually makes a hand above 18 and we usually don't or bust.
Anyway, this game with the early surrender had a few guys playing head to head for $100 a hand.
Now I can see why. It's beatable
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
Tiltpoul
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February 15th, 2012 at 2:15:04 PM permalink
Quote: WongBo

Just the fact that they mention a verbal signal when hand signaling is the universally preferred method indicates a disconnect at this establishment. They might not know any better!



I will actually disagree with you on this point. There is a universal hand signal that indicates surrender (a drawn line with one finger, horizontal to the bet) which most casinos in Las Vegas require. However, many casinos offering surrender prefer a verbal, as one finger down indicates to the dealer a HIT. I was scolded very clearly by a pit boss for consistently using the one finger across table and nearly threatened to be kicked out of the casino if I didn't comply. BTW, I ALWAYS say surrender before drawing a line, so I thought it was stupid he was scolding me like a child.

Quote: WongBo

Now I am sure there are certain ethicists on this board who will feel I should mention this to a pit boss or the director of table games,but I think I prefer to just play the game as it's offered.



If what you say is true (that it's printed that way), then even PaiGowDan, the most ethical if not annoying person (wink), would say there is nothing wrong with this. Those are the casino rules, printed and distributed to players, so you are doing NOTHING unethical at all. If you know this game has a positive house advantage, then congratulations.

Most casinos view surrender as a House advantage anyways, as many players either don't utilize it, or use it incorrectly. I once had a pit boss (different casino) tell me they advertised surrender because it was good for the house. Then again, that casino was a POS in St Joseph, MO, so I didn't listen at all.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
buzzpaff
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February 15th, 2012 at 2:21:14 PM permalink
" Those are the casino rules, printed and distributed to players, so you are doing NOTHING unethical at all. " That's what I say, but Dan still insists on calling me a cheater !
WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 3:47:22 PM permalink
I wish their were more casino staff that thought surrender is good for the casino!
Early surrender against an ace is worth 0.39% to the player.
Early surrender against a ten is worth 0.24% to the player.
Late surrender against an ace is worth 0.0% to the player.
Late surrender against a ten is worth 0.07% to the player.

Early surrender is more profitable to your advantage than playing with a single deck (0.63% vs. 0.48%)
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
soulhunt79
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February 15th, 2012 at 9:33:05 PM permalink
Quote: P90

Otherwise the sign can be confused with hitting, and very reasonably so, because all surrender hands are hitting hands otherwise.



I still do the hand sign, but I NEVER do the sign before I speak surrender and the dealer knows I am surrendering.
bbvk05
bbvk05
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February 15th, 2012 at 9:43:43 PM permalink
Quote: WongBo

Excerpt from XXXX casino gaming guide:

"....Prior to the dealer checking the hole card, simply announce in a tone calculated to be heard by all, your intent to surrender.
Please do not handle the wager yourself, the dealer will perform the transaction prior to checking the hole card
and return half your original wager. Do not handle the wager yourself."

Just the fact that they mention a verbal signal when hand signaling is the universally preferred method indicates
A disconnect at this establishment. They might not know any better!
Now I am sure there are certain ethicists on this board who will feel
I should mention this to a pit boss or the director of table games,
but I think I prefer to just play the game as it's offered.
Maybe it's promotional.
Maybe they use the BJ as a loss leader to attract people to their remote location so they can clip them on the other games.
God knows their three card poker paytables suck.
They don't offer the fortune side wager at PGP and you can't prepay commission,
Their craps tables only pays double on 2 and 12 in the field,
You cant touch the cards at their midi-baccarat, $25 minimum,
They only offer $10 minimum roulette, double zero, no "en prison". Etc. Etc.




Loss leaders work for rinky-dink matchplays and such, but having a game that basic strategy defeats? I am not so sure. Clearly they are still making money off of the tables and just want the best blackjack around, but I've never seen rules that good. They should clearly only allow late surrender.

Also, not having the fortune side bet in PGP is a player advantage because it keeps you from betting that stupid shit. And who cares about what the field pays at a craps table? You only play that if you want to lose big money anyway.
WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 9:52:35 PM permalink
I agree the field isn't a great bet at 2.78% on a triple pay 12 table.
On a double pay 12 table, the field is 5.56%, twice as bad.
I only mention it as it is an indicator of greed exhibited by most of the casinos in the east.
You are right that the missing Fortune PGP bet is good for the player,
but it was removed because they are extremely tight and afraid of a hit.

As far as the ES goes, I have the feeling they will discontinue it once someone takes it apart and empties one of their chip racks.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
WongBo
WongBo
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February 15th, 2012 at 9:53:00 PM permalink
Duplicate deleted
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
P90
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February 15th, 2012 at 11:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

If what you say is true (that it's printed that way), then even PaiGowDan, the most ethical if not annoying person (wink), would say there is nothing wrong with this. Those are the casino rules, printed and distributed to players, so you are doing NOTHING unethical at all. If you know this game has a positive house advantage, then congratulations.


If I'm not mistaken, Dan considers you a cheater if you say nothing when a PGP dealer forgets to split two high pairs, but is perfectly fine with the dealer scooping your bet if you set your hand Qs-Jc-8s-7s-5s/Ac-Js.

It can be difficult to get on his ethical side, so you probably still have to inform the house to get some voluntary collaboration ethical points.
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bbvk05
bbvk05
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February 16th, 2012 at 2:18:33 AM permalink
I always laugh when I hear about casinos pulling hugely popular and profitable games like the fortune side bet because they are afraid of a big hit. Morons. I guess there is some risk of cheating, but that just means you are super weak on game security.

There was a casino in AZ that promoted some new huge house edge side bet in three card poker. It was like match the dealer where an exact 3 card match pays 5,000 to 1 or something. The morning they started playing they had two hits at @$10 and that might one hit at $20. Took it out the next day, even though people loved it and the house edge was murder.
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