graylove
graylove
Joined: Jan 29, 2010
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January 29th, 2010 at 11:45:17 AM permalink
Hi Wizard, What do think a Players edge could be if they were a Good card counter with a perfect Strategy? I know it would depend on the houses rules. But just a rough average with basic BJ rules. Thanks
BenJammin
BenJammin
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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January 29th, 2010 at 12:49:27 PM permalink
I think Hunches cost more than mistakes, at least in my case they do.

I know basic strategy like the back of my hand, but I still deviate once in a blue moon if I get that "Feeling".

One time a dealer pissed me off at Binion's Horse Shoe, (not by doing anything other than beat my pants off) so I went on a quest to kick her butt and left the table $300 up. I broke all the rules.

But of course, that was the exception to the rule, but it sure was fun.
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jeremykay
jeremykay
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February 5th, 2010 at 4:18:32 PM permalink
What about the flip side... by how much do you think the house advantage goes down due to dealer errors?
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 5th, 2010 at 4:30:50 PM permalink
Quote: jeremykay

What about the flip side... by how much do you think the house advantage goes down due to dealer errors?



I tend to think it goes up because of dealer errors. In my opinion, about 80% of errors are in the dealer's favor. Of course, those are more likely to get challenged. Let's say players catch 60% of errors either way, but say nothing when it goes in their favor. So given there is an error, the probabilities are:

20% = Player's favor, player keeps his mouth shut.
48% = Dealer's favor, player opens his mouth.
32% = Dealer's favor, player didn't catch it.

Of course these are rough estimates.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
dutch
dutch
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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February 5th, 2010 at 5:51:52 PM permalink
Is that your hunch that 80% are in the houses favor or have you heard or read that figure? Just curious. I was at a roulette table one time and a new dealer was giving out 6 stacks of 20 chips when someone bought in with a $100. I bet he gave out $160 in free chips before the pit boss caught him.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 5th, 2010 at 7:05:41 PM permalink
Yes, that is my position, based on 23 years of playing. I think that is because:

1. Dealers also know the players are likely to speak up if a mistake goes against the player, giving them a safety net in that direction.

2. If the mistake goes against the house, the players won't give the dealer a chance to correct it. If surveillance catches the mistake, the dealer will have to answer for it later.

I'm sure the dealers want to deal a perfect game, but the consequences of mistakes against the house are greater, so they likely err on the side of the house more.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
johnbarley
johnbarley
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April 3rd, 2013 at 6:30:40 PM permalink
Old conversation, but what do you guys think the true house edge for other games are, namely video poker? Seems even an expert (I'm thinking of those that go through thousands and thousands of hand when the jackpot is right) would have a really hard time of not making a mistake and each individual mistake could be very costly.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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April 4th, 2013 at 6:41:13 AM permalink
Quote: johnbarley

Old conversation, but what do you guys think the true house edge for other games are, namely video poker? Seems even an expert (I'm thinking of those that go through thousands and thousands of hand when the jackpot is right) would have a really hard time of not making a mistake and each individual mistake could be very costly.



I'm sure everybody makes mistakes either due to mental lapses, visual failure, or machine/hand failure. The game will have a big role, too. For example, the strategy for jacks or better is much easier than the strategy for many of the bonus poker variants.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett

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